Political Posts

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I think one big consequence of the political turmoil will be the end of the US exceptionalism in terms of equity valuations, USD getting weaker (already happening and partly intended), resulting in lower purchasing power and wealth for the mean citizen.

 

The above is needed to balance the trade balance. Nothing else will do in my opinion.

 

As an investor, I think it’s time to diversify out of US stocks and the USD. It’s similar to 70’s when Nixon abandoned the gold standard which created economic turmoil and the  winner and looser were very different than in the decades before.

I’m amazed how cheap some gold stocks are. Money has flown into large cap royalty companies and high quality large and mid caps but otherwise multiples are super low. No one wants to own shitcos no matter how cheap they get it seems. 

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

It's called negotiation, and that is simply your opinion. You fail to address the silly one-sided opinion piece you posted. The professor clearly hates Trump, and his rhetoric of "The US political system is falling apart" and "Trump couldn't pass his second course in economics" is just ridiculous hyperbole.

 

If that's what you want to post as your "proof" - go right ahead @Viking

 

Viking gave you a very specific point...that the Japanese asked the American team what they wanted as concessions...they didn't have an answer.  This may be negotiations, but one of the biggest tenants of negotiation is being able to tell the opposing party what you want.  They made it pretty clear with Iran what they wanted...how come not the Japanese?  Cheers! 

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, Red Lion said:

 

I still don’t think SNAP benefits should be used for soda or candy (just like they can’t be used for cigarettes or alcohol). 

 

I agree.  Cheers!

[Sweet]

 

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I’m amazed how cheap some gold stocks are. Money has flown into large cap royalty companies and high quality large and mid caps but otherwise multiples are super low. No one wants to own shitcos no matter how cheap they get it seems. 

Money is flowing into Gold because it’s a safety heaven. Small cap Gold shitcos even if cheap are the opposite of being a safety plays. that’s why the money flow into those are limited. this may change at some point. As always, I would  look at plays that have self help components (buybacks , dividends).

[Luke]

14 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Sorry, this guy is an idiot globalist, with no regard for the Citizens of the US.

Insults don't add to your argument.

14 hours ago, cubsfan said:

1- Not a word about the 30 years of job destruction in US manufacturing. He could care less.

And no word from you about 30 years of new jobs that pay hundreds, if not millions, more than the old manufacturing sector ever could and could pay right now. Seeking cheaper labor globally is a natural result of open markets and due to automatization there simply arent that many well paid jobs anymore. These jobs also wont come back if you onshore manufacturing which is automatized and increasingly so. The problem is that the wealth that is produced simply did not go into MAGA pockets but to WS and a small pool of investors and highly educated workers.

14 hours ago, cubsfan said:

2- Nothing about other countries tariffs or barriers at all. Not a peep.

And nothing from you about the 50% of the global economy that is dominated by US corporations (in which MAGA voters mostly have no significant stake in and dont get the wealth share) and the US software and services they installed globally and made them the richest country on earth. But chinese who make shoes and iPhones are the problem why you are poor now?

14 hours ago, cubsfan said:

3- Nothing about China, and any trade protection needed against China - the worst offender of all.

The worst offender in what? Making your shoes for cents on the dollar while being poor? They have no competitive semiconductor industry, have a huge part of the population that is significantly poorer than US citizens ever will be...

14 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Couldn't be more disingenuous , while leaving all the relevant facts out.

He didnt leave any facts out, you just want to look at the situation one sided and play a victim card in which your country is no victim in. The US is the winner of 80 years post WW2 globalization and enmassed wealth in proportions that where unthinkable, its simply not in the pockets of MAGA voters that got angry and trump fed right into that.

 

The tariffs wont work, trump destroyed decades of US diplomacy, he is in a worse position than china and he has no fundamental knowledge of economics which will lead towards the US being able to provide any better paying jobs to MAGA voters which simply dont exist anymore and cant come back.

Edited April 21, 2025 by Luke

[Sweet]

10 minutes ago, Luke said:

The worst offender in what? Making your shoes for cents on the dollar while being poor? They have no competitive semiconductor industry, have a huge part of the population that is significantly poorer than US citizens ever will be...

China had and still has some of the most unfair trade practices.  
 

As a starting point ask ChatGPT:

 

’Does China engage in unfair trade?‘

 

‘Can you provide some examples of chinas unfair trade practices?’

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

49 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Money is flowing into Gold because it’s a safety heaven. Small cap Gold shitcos even if cheap are the opposite of being a safety plays. that’s why the money flow into those are limited. this may change at some point. As always, I would  look at plays that have self help components (buybacks , dividends).

I appreciate that but as an expected value investor, the risk/rewards are getting better and better. One can see 5-10x type returns over 5 years. For example, I own Mako Mining. I don’t think it’s that risky now that it has two producing mines and one more on the way. It’s also controlled by Wexford Capital so I get to sidecar for free. There is no analyst coverage so the quants and screens don’t know it trades at < 1x 2027 OpCF. There is optionality on the gold price, on other cap allocation decisions and the multiple as the market cap is big enough for GDXJ but not liquid enough yet.

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Money is flowing into Gold because it’s a safety heaven. Small cap Gold shitcos even if cheap are the opposite of being a safety plays. that’s why the money flow into those are limited. this may change at some point. As always, I would  look at plays that have self help components (buybacks , dividends).

 

Gold is also priced in USD and USD (as measured by the DXY) is down around 9.5% YTD. So dollar denominated commodities need to have risen by 10.5% YTD just to maintain their original dollar neutral value.

[cwericb]

10 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

It's called negotiation, and that is simply your opinion. You fail to address the silly one-sided opinion piece you posted. The professor clearly hates Trump, and his rhetoric of "The US political system is falling apart" and "Trump couldn't pass his second course in economics" is just ridiculous hyperbole.

 

If that's what you want to post as your "proof" - go right ahead @Viking

 

"Negotiation"? Trump couldn't negotiate a crap. "The Art of the Deal" What a joke! I have done a few 'deals' and numerous negotiations. 

 

Canada is the US's biggest customer. Trump's first move was to insult Canada and his second was to then threaten Canada. A ten year old knows that is not the way you make deals. And WHY would anyone want to sign a deal with a guy who rips up his own signed deals on a whim?

How's this great 'dealer' doing with the Russia-Ukraine war that he bragged that he would settle within 24 hours -over and over again?

 

How are the Buffoon's 'negotiations' with Canada going? "Doesn't need Canada he says?" OOPS! He didn't do his homework, did he? 

Didn't know that Canada supplies US refineries with oil - not readily available elsewhere - AND at a DISCOUNTED price.

Didn't realize that millions in the US depend on Canadian electricity to keep the lights on.

Didn't know how important Canadian supplied gas is to the US.

Didn't know that Canada controls vast amounts of water the US desperately needs.

Didn't know about critical minerals provided to the US.

Didn't know Canada's softwood lumber mills are vital to the US housing industry.

This is a small fraction of the list, but figure it out for yourself, Trump didn't.

 

And, oh by the way, is he even aware of "the Alaska problem"?

"Trucking plays a vital role in Alaska. It puts essentials like groceries, clothing, gear, and other supplies in the hands of Alaska's residents. It also transports the inventory, supplies, materials, and equipment that keep Alaska's businesses moving forward and power the state's economy."  

So Alaska's population is supplied primarily by truck from the lower 48 right? Now we know Trump's geographical knowledge is limited, but all those trucks go through Canadian highways and what goes by air is through Canadian air space, and by boat through Canadian waters. 

 

The US has slapped docking fees of $1.5 mil on Chinese ships? Just wait until you see the Canadian tolls on US trucks heading to Alaska. Now Canada has never done something like that, but keep on with all that tariff talk and we will see...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[StevieV]

1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I appreciate that but as an expected value investor, the risk/rewards are getting better and better. One can see 5-10x type returns over 5 years. For example, I own Mako Mining. I don’t think it’s that risky now that it has two producing mines and one more on the way. It’s also controlled by Wexford Capital so I get to sidecar for free. There is no analyst coverage so the quants and screens don’t know it trades at < 1x 2027 OpCF. There is optionality on the gold price, on other cap allocation decisions and the multiple as the market cap is big enough for GDXJ but not liquid enough yet.

 

Spek points out an interesting dynamic whereby gold is a safe haven, but some companies that have gold as their primary product are not.

 

Regardless, Mako is up very nicely on the year.  We'll see how the mining results deliver as they start up commercial production next year and what success they have expanding the resource.  However, at the moment, the Moss mine acquisition appears extremely cheap and well timed.  I don't think I've ever seen an acquisition quite like it.

[rogermunibond]

Under inflation scenarios, capex costs more and more each year and miners with very high maintenance capex needs soon see their margins eroded.  Even with high commodity prices for whatever they extract.

[rogermunibond]

[dwy000]

5 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

This presumes you know what you're asking for in the negotiations. 

[rogermunibond]

@dwy000 yes, as a baseline.  these are not serious people.

[SafetyinNumbers]

33 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

Under inflation scenarios, capex costs more and more each year and miners with very high maintenance capex needs soon see their margins eroded.  Even with high commodity prices for whatever they extract.

That was the lesson from the last cycle. This time oil is currently well supplied and valuations for a stock like Mako are probably a tenth of where they would have been 20 years ago. Each stock will have their own idiosyncratic journey of course but it’s certainly an intriguing set up. 

[Sinbius]

32 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

This presumes you know what you're asking for in the negotiations. 

 

 

...but he is a practitioner of the art of the deal...the strategy is that you look like a r3tq30 and people are out of balance and they will propose better deals that you could think of...

[cwericb]

17 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

This presumes you know what you're asking for in the negotiations. 

 

It is actually embarrassing that these twits are so delusional and out of touch with reality. How is any country supposed to take these guys seriously when THEY can't even tell you what they want to achieve? 

 

What's their end goal? Bring back $5 an hour factory jobs making socks and T-shirts? Or farm labor to replace Mexican farm and factory workers? Or is their such demand for work we will see American labour cleaning up people's property and similar jobs that the deported labourers have been doing? Or perhaps just an excuse to raise more taxes and fool the nation's people into thinking someone else is going to pay their taxes. Anyone who believes that stuff I have a great big wall to sell you that Mexico paid for. Oh wait...   Tump is insulting the intelligence of Americans.

[dwy000]

11 minutes ago, Sinbius said:

 

 

...but he is a practitioner of the art of the deal...the strategy is that you look like a r3tq30 and people are out of balance and they will propose better deals that you could think of...

Ah, the "he is crazy so we better make a deal" strategy.  Unfortunately the Japanese negotiators went home thoroughly confused and have now decided they need to circle the wagons because there.may not be a deal to be had. So much winning!

Edited April 21, 2025 by dwy000

[WFF]

4 minutes ago, cwericb said:

what they want to achieve

My two cent on what I think the administration want:

 

1. Reduce tarriffs on agricultural products and commitments to buy more American.  This will help boost rural America, MAGA’s base

 

2. Isolating China from the global economy, similar to what was done to Russia prior to the war/conflict on Ukraine.

 

I don’t think it is a coincidence that China came out and said they will retaliate against others that follow US call for isolation today.

 

I can understand the sentiments, but the execution of it all is mind blogging.  Hence, I am not exactly sure any announcement of trade deals is a good thing, this may lead to more decoupling that will be painful in the short term, at the minimum.

[changegonnacome]

18 minutes ago, WFF said:

I can understand the sentiments, but the execution of it all is mind blogging.

 

Yep - the frustration I have with Trump is he generally lands in the correct broad zipcode from a policy point of view......but is completely unable to build a coherent strategy to address the correctly identified issue.....and if that weren't enough even the execution of the poorly thought out or non-existent strategy is operationalized in a ramshackle way.....given he's prioritized loyalty over competency in his second term administration I expect to see even more of this ramshackle-ness.

 

In some respects its his achilles heel- its why he's good at winning elections, good on twitter.......and simply terrible at governing......its the populists disease seen everywhere from South America to Africa....simple solutions to complex problems sound attractive.....but when a populist engages with reality and their progress is frustrated by the inherent complexity of the problem relative to their simplified solution....they tend to, as Trump has, to blame the deep state, the Fed and anybody else except the man in the mirrors solution.

 

Trump is in the process of getting his head handed to him by the stock market, bond market and soon if he continues the economy......hopefully he reacts with the mental flexibility he's shown in the past.....but I can't help but feel that voices of reason that surrounded him in the past are in the minority now......its Laura Loomer, Peter Navarro, the my pillow guy and Kid Rock shaping the Presidents impression of reality now.....let's hope the Kid Rock 'put' holds up!

[John Hjorth]

2025W17 - Monday 21^st April 2025 - Russian-Ukrainian War :

 

YouTube - Anders Puck Nielsen [April 18^th 2025] : NATO has missed the drone revolution

 

 

You Tube summary :

 

NATO has failed to understand the drone revolution and needs to act quickly to avoid disaster in a war with Russia. That is the message in a recent article by Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's former commander-in-chief.

 

In this video, I discuss Zaluzhnyi's arguments and point out where the Western militaries have gone wrong. The biggest problem is that they see drones as enablers of maneuver warfare, but they haven't noticed that maneuver warfare is now a paradigm of the past. Drones have shifted the balance between defensive and offensive operations to an extent that modern warfare now means static, attritional fighting that resembles World War I.

 

Link to Zaluzhnyi's article: https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2025/04/how-drones-data-and-ai-transformed-our-militaryand-why-us-must-follow-suit/404444/ .

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I think Anders Puck Nielsen certainly has a valid point, related to most of the NATO member countries. It's not just about gear and equipment, its also about practical training of military staff.

Edited April 21, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Spooky]

Just voted in the Canadian federal election

[dwy000]

27 minutes ago, Spooky said:

Just voted in the Canadian federal election

I hope you're Canadian. 

[Spooky]

1 minute ago, dwy000 said:

I hope you're Canadian. 

 

Haha I am.