Political Posts

[Jaygo]

7 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

Haha I am.

 

"if it wasn't Blue, you've been huffing glue" I just made that up. I wont quit my day job. I also voted yesterday.

 

[Spooky]

6 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

I also voted yesterday.

Nice!

[Jaygo]

4 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

I appreciate that but as an expected value investor, the risk/rewards are getting better and better. One can see 5-10x type returns over 5 years. For example, I own Mako Mining. I don’t think it’s that risky now that it has two producing mines and one more on the way. It’s also controlled by Wexford Capital so I get to sidecar for free. There is no analyst coverage so the quants and screens don’t know it trades at < 1x 2027 OpCF. There is optionality on the gold price, on other cap allocation decisions and the multiple as the market cap is big enough for GDXJ but not liquid enough yet.

 

As you know I am a believer in Mako and Akiba. The one risk that should be mentioned is the jurisdictional risk of Nicaragua. 

 

I dont expect nationalism but if gold continues to move higher these guys may see tax and royalty rates move up as well. Not lethal but it certainly could take a little wind out of the sails. For every 100 move up in gold it equates to an additional 4m in FCF. Eventually the governments are going to see this and increase the royalties. 

 

My Gold exposure in Value is Mako, GDXJ, Physical bars and coins, Omai, Soma, Lundin, Red Pine, Fortune Bay, GFG, Orezone, 

 

and then a whole bunch of spec positions of 2-3K each. I think at this point Mako and Soma have the most compelling price per OZ produced but they are absolutely not risk free. I have been taking profits in explorers and buying into producers lately as I think the Gold at todays price will be recognised long before the resource potential of the explores. As of today Gold and producers is about 13% of my portfolio. 

[Blake Hampton]

I don't understand why the world has to fight. Globalization has benefited everyone, even if parts of it have been unfair at times. I get that leaders need to be tough and show strength, but there is zero reason to be an asshole who isolates themself from everyone. If I were president, I’d be best friends with all these other countries—Canada, Mexico, countries in Europe, even China. I understand taking a tougher stance on trade, but what’s happening right now is literally madness.

 

We have a president creating tax policy on his own, using emergency powers, that's going to affect the lives of billions. It’s also triggering a chain reaction of events that could be devastating to the United States. It infuriates me how incompetent the leadership of my country is, and I think this is headed toward a bad end.

 

The saddest part is that the people who'll suffer the most will have had the least responsibility in causing it.

 

It’s sickening.

[SafetyinNumbers]

41 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

 

As you know I am a believer in Mako and Akiba. The one risk that should be mentioned is the jurisdictional risk of Nicaragua. 

 

I dont expect nationalism but if gold continues to move higher these guys may see tax and royalty rates move up as well. Not lethal but it certainly could take a little wind out of the sails. For every 100 move up in gold it equates to an additional 4m in FCF. Eventually the governments are going to see this and increase the royalties. 

 

My Gold exposure in Value is Mako, GDXJ, Physical bars and coins, Omai, Soma, Lundin, Red Pine, Fortune Bay, GFG, Orezone, 

 

and then a whole bunch of spec positions of 2-3K each. I think at this point Mako and Soma have the most compelling price per OZ produced but they are absolutely not risk free. I have been taking profits in explorers and buying into producers lately as I think the Gold at today’s irprice will be recognised long before the resource potential of the explores. As of today Gold and producers is about 13% of my portfolio. 

Jurisdiction and execution are risk for all gold mines no matter where they operate. Nicaragua is probably the smallest part of the NAV after Guyana (1) and Arizona (2) even though it provides all of the current cash flow. 
 

Recently, Nicaragua was derisked a bit after Trump was elected and his friend Nick Candy decided to buy Condor Gold which only had Nicaraguan development assets and after Equinox decided to merge with Calibre that has significant Nicaraguan production.

 

There is always a risk that jurisdictions try to increase the revenue from commodities but as it stands now revenues are likely well above their expectations. 

[Spooky]

58 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

I don't understand why the world has to fight. Globalization has benefited everyone, even if parts of it have been unfair at times. I get that leaders need to be tough and show strength, but there is zero reason to be an asshole who isolates themself from everyone. If I were president, I’d be best friends with all these other countries—Canada, Mexico, countries in Europe, even China. I understand taking a tougher stance on trade, but what’s happening right now is literally madness.

 

We have a president creating tax policy on his own, using emergency powers, that's going to affect the lives of billions. It’s also triggering a chain reaction of events that could be devastating to the United States. It infuriates me how incompetent the leadership of my country is, and I think this is headed toward a bad end.

 

The saddest part is that the people who'll suffer the most will have had the least responsibility in causing it.

 

It’s sickening.

 

+1. I agree. China and the US as the two largest and most powerful countries need to figure out a way to co-exist and co-operate. Otherwise it will be terrible for the world.

[StevieV]

28 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Jurisdiction and execution are risk for all gold mines no matter where they operate. Nicaragua is probably the smallest part of the NAV after Guyana (1) and Arizona (2) even though it provides all of the current cash flow. 
 

Recently, Nicaragua was derisked a bit after Trump was elected and his friend Nick Candy decided to buy Condor Gold which only had Nicaraguan development assets and after Equinox decided to merge with Calibre that has significant Nicaraguan production.

 

There is always a risk that jurisdictions try to increase the revenue from commodities but as it stands now revenues are likely well above their expectations. 

 

 

Moss (an almost "free" gold mine) > Nicaragua mine?

[73 Reds]

4 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

+1. I agree. China and the US as the two largest and most powerful countries need to figure out a way to co-exist and co-operate. Otherwise it will be terrible for the world.

@Spooky  +1  to your post.  Easier said than done.  Some would argue that is what Trump is trying to do despite means that are unorthodox and distasteful.  

[Spooky]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

@Spooky  +1  to your post.  Easier said than done.  Some would argue that is what Trump is trying to do despite means that are unorthodox and distasteful.  

 

I hope you are right. I've been reading a lot of commentary that the two countries are not communicating at the highest levels.

[73 Reds]

Just now, Spooky said:

 

I hope you are right. I've been reading a lot of commentary that the two countries are not communicating at the highest levels.

Hard to know.  But it is also hard to cooperate and co-exist with a major power that is stealing you blind.

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 minute ago, StevieV said:

 

 

Moss (an almost "free" gold mine) > Nicaragua mine?

Based on the known resource which is how NAV calculations are done, I think that’s probably true. Nicaragua has a vein structure so there is no benefit in drilling too far ahead of production so  even though there may be decades of resource there, the stated resource is always constrained.

[Spooky]

Just now, 73 Reds said:

Hard to know.  But it is also hard to cooperate and co-exist with a major power that is stealing you blind.

 

Ya I'm not a fan of the CCP. Not sure what the right policy is with respect to China but both parties need some give and take.

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, Spooky said:

 

Ya I'm not a fan of the CCP. Not sure what the right policy is with respect to China but both parties need some give and take.

Yup.  And the U.S. shares some of the blame; we allowed it to happen.

[Spekulatius]

Emerging market status unlocked :

 

https://www.npr.org/2025/04/21/nx-s1-5370690/hegseth-signal-chat-jim-himes

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-taunts-jerome-powell-waiting-long-cut-rates-rcna202123

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Better hide when daddy is hammered:

 

[Spekulatius]

Anyone remember that one:

 

[cubsfan]

57 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Better hide when daddy is hammered:

 

 

.... and morale is soaring in the Military under Hegseth. No more recruiting crisis. Troops love him:

 

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/04/21/army-recruiting-upswing-service-hits-85-of-annual-goal-5-months-left.html

 

[changegonnacome]

10 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Anyone remember that one:

 

Ah yes the classic Four Seasons press conference

 

how folks let this three ringed circus back into WH is beyond me!...in fact things are much much worse now....MyPillow guy and Laura Loomer only got into the WH at the chaotic last 60 days as the rats abandoned ship.....all while Gary Cohen et al kept the train on the track for most of Trump 1.0.....this time Laura Loomer is in there in the first 100 days getting senior folks sacked...but the old Captain Chaos deja vu must be creeping back in for some folks who'd kinda forgotten all this under a cloud of the "economy was good back then" and before COVID times......need to do the math properly but at a quick passing glance it certainly looks like SPY & QQQ (inflation adjusted) and using today's close has delivered negative to at best flat real returns since their respective intraday highs from 2021....not very exceptional at all.

 

 

[Blake Hampton]

Trump Is Laying the Groundwork to Blame Powell for Any Downturn - WSJ

[adesigar]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

.... and morale is soaring in the Military under Hegseth. No more recruiting crisis. Troops love him:

 

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/04/21/army-recruiting-upswing-service-hits-85-of-annual-goal-5-months-left.html

 

 

Did you actually read the article?

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

Trump Is Laying the Groundwork to Blame Powell for Any Downturn - WSJ

The economy was slowing even before Trump announced his tariffs.  But you’d have to be very stupid to think Powell, and not this admins tariff and economic policy, are to blame for this mess.

[changegonnacome]

5 hours ago, Sweet said:

The economy was slowing even before Trump announced his tariffs.  But you’d have to be very stupid to think Powell, and not this admins tariff and economic policy, are to blame for this mess.

the inhabitants of Trumpistan swallow whatever narrative he and his proxies ram down their necks…..but I think this particular narrative- that the Fed tanked the economy - will be blown up by the concurrent rise in sticker prices at Walmart / Target etc due to tariffs…when at the same time the economy starts to tank….people will swallow a load of bullshit but not when the truth is right in front of their eyes at the store.

 

IMO I think the get out of jail for Trump remains a China capitulation ….which is the only scenario in which the negative GDP prints later in the year can be blamed on somebody else Powell/Fed etc…put another way Trump desperately needs to avoid sticker price shock flowing through to Walmart / Target in the coming weeks…..with annualized MoM CPI prints in the 6% range coming in perhaps May/June. He’s screwed and China knows he’s screwed….the question is whether China gives him a defensible climb down position. 

[Luke]

17 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

the inhabitants of Trumpistan swallow whatever narrative he and his proxies ram down their necks…..but I think this particular narrative- that the Fed tanked the economy - will be blown up by the concurrent rise in sticker prices at Walmart / Target etc due to tariffs…when at the same time the economy starts to tank….people will swallow a load of bullshit but not when the truth is right in front of their eyes at the store.

 

IMO I think the get out of jail for Trump remains a China capitulation ….which is the only scenario in which the negative GDP prints later in the year can be blamed on somebody else Powell/Fed etc…put another way Trump desperately needs to avoid sticker price shock flowing through to Walmart / Target in the coming weeks…..with annualized MoM CPI prints in the 6% range coming in perhaps May/June. He’s screwed and China knows he’s screwed….the question is whether China gives him a defensible climb down position. 

I think it's pretty likely that Trump reduces tariffs by himself without negotiating anything with China; there is no other realistic scenario. After how China was treated, they surely won't invest any more energy in negotiating with that administration.

[changegonnacome]

50 minutes ago, Luke said:

I think it's pretty likely that Trump reduces tariffs by himself without negotiating anything with China

 

Agree thats kinda my base case - i think you get negotiating theatre coming from the Trump side (already have).....there will be some vague rumors leaked to the press about China conceding on a number of things.......Trump will then say given the amazing deal thats coming together he's going to pause the tariff's.....and boom you've got an off ramp.....

 

Having said all that - Trump has taken some serious pot shots at China......I suspect whats in the best interest of China now is to still leave some pain on the table....perhaps rare earths or something else......its in the best interest of the CCP to see Congress flip Democrat at the mid-terms......I suspect they'll find a way to ensure this tariff chaos doesn't slip the mind of the American electorate when they head for those mid-terms.

[Luke]

21 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Agree thats kinda my base case - i think you get negotiating theatre coming from the Trump side (already have).....there will be some vague rumors leaked to the press about China conceding on a number of things.......Trump will then say given the amazing deal thats coming together he's going to pause the tariff's.....and boom you've got an off ramp.....

 

Having said all that - Trump has taken some serious pot shots at China......I suspect whats in the best interest of China now is to still leave some pain on the table....perhaps rare earths or something else......its in the best interest of the CCP to see Congress flip Democrat at the mid-terms......I suspect they'll find a way to ensure this tariff chaos doesn't slip the mind of the American electorate when they head for those mid-terms.

In the current political climate and geopolitical situation china can IMO outlast the US quite easily with less damage than the US. Why should they try to negotiate with trump, someone who has showed again and again that China is their enemy number one. I think the CCP is at a point where they wont agree to visit the US (look at what happened to selensky last time he came publicly) and i dont think high officials will take any phone calls from trump because its simply a waste of time.

 

The tariffs stand or trump will reduce them, china does not have to do anything for it. Instead they should use the opportunity of the tariff blunder to strengthen their impact in asia and europe (which they seem to do successfully right now) and perhaps increase domestic demand with a stimulus at some point.

 

The US is doing a strategic mistake and why stop them from doing so.