rogermunibond

What are people's expectations of the Warsh Fed? If he wants Fed reserves to be at a much lower level, doesn't this naturally imply that he wants some form of interbank lending to take over the provision of liquidity? And given the size of the liquidity need that's not even possible now.

@dealraker +1

@Longnose how do you keep track of all the tasks and assignments that Spark is working on?

Forward deployed engineer going to be a growth job https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/microsoft-commits-2point5-billion-6000-employees-ai-implementation-unit.html

https://www.housingwire.com/homebuilder-rankings/for-sale-units/ There are a lot of homebuilders that Berkshire can buy out on this list.

Is there a strain of techno-paranoia in the West? Does something similar exist in China?

On your last question, agree 100%

If token prices plummet, lowest cost of compute will win out. Cheap tokens make so many more use cases possible.

Seems like this is what most big investors should be doing to some degree. Bain as part of due diligence on potential software company acquistions is having their employees vibe-code software pieces of potential acquisition targets to see if there really is a competitive advantage. https://www.ft.com/content/e5bac4d1-b1f8-43a4-bd54-b182d5357af0?syn-25a6b1a6=1

@villainx More like retailer

This was dated June 2 so maybe Treasuries have recaptured the lead. Two trends - gold as a diversification for CBs from USTs and physical holdings of gold moving from NY and London to CB vaults in the country that owns the gold. What does this reflect? Multi-polar world? The return of history?

FT on the very soft insurance market https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/ec8c2ca1-1026-43cc-b91b-bbffcba72dd8

Looking through the deal press release, seems like this is much more of a retail, distribution business. 101 store locations plus an importer business in addition to the wine and liqueur brands.

@MMM20 that's funny. Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg of Leucadia fame bought four wineries the first in 2000 iirc. They opined in every shareholder letter about how bad they were as businesses but they liked wine and wine lubricated camaraderie. Eventually they spun off the wineries in 2013 as Crimson Wine Group. It's publically traded on the OTC but tiny and still a terrible business. lol

https://www.carlyle.com/sites/default/files/2025-03/Carlyle_The_New_Joule_Order.pdf

My WC bet is Brazil to win at +900 odds. A young team with a extremely good manager for these situations.

Yeah that's what I've done as well. Scuttleblurb has a great series on payment processors.

Started to find some interesting investment ideas and good write-ups on companies on Substack. What are some of your favorite newer Substacks? Macro/China - Adam Tooze Chartbook BRKR stock idea - Notes from the Beauty Contest

@Wanderer Abel got an early version of this presentation https://blog.google/alphabet/investor-presentation-june-2026/#full-stack-approach-ai

If you look up where Google's confirmed hyperscale data center projects are located, they are not in the BHE regulated utility footprints. But that doesn't mean that BHE's merchant power group, BHE Renewables, isn't involved in building a BYOG power plant co-located with the Google DC. It's just not known.

Comments from XOM and CVX leadership strongly hint that inventories are rapidly depleting unless flows get turned on again. The market is terrible at pricing nonlinear outcomes.

The interesting thing from this investment by Greg Abel is that BRK is undoubtedly a customer of Google Cloud, as well as MSFT Azure, and AWS. And Abel probably has the technical competence to see what makes the GCP more valuable over time than say Azure or AWS.