Dalal.Holdings

Is $69 too low? We just went through a geopolitical scenario that was the oil bull doomers’ wet dream and oil peaked at $110? A lot of it because the major powers (USA, China, G7, etc) all coordinated to contain the upside…what that tells you is that the upside in oil is basically capped. Now you have a large amount of DWT moving through the Strait releasing pent up supply back on the markets while you have new pipelines being built to bypass the strait, other global producers who have upped production, majors getting serious about Venezuela, UAE leaving OPEC and maybe Iraq too soo they can pump more oil… $69 ain’t enough to get me interested. And if the Strait normalizes for a while, oil likely heads even lower than before the war…

This is the most European/EU news story ever...shut off AC for lower level workers at the EU, but Ursula and her staff on the upper levels get to keep their AC on. AC for me, but not for thee. Just like Davos where all the private jets fly in to discuss climate change...

I said it when he was elected in 2024 and the OXY & oil bulls were all excited: this guy really cares about keeping oil prices low. He thinks of gasoline prices as a report card for his presidency. Why would you be long oil with a guy like that in charge? The Iran war was an opportunity to cash out. Hope some folks locked in profits in the past couple of months...

...and WTI is below $70 again

Europeans have touted their social safety net and "quality of life" since the 1990s. They have neglected economic productivity, technology, and defense since then and it's no coincidence. The problem is that guys like Putin will always exist and if you don't have defense (or technology/productivity), one day that nice social safety net and "quality of life" will be taken from you (all of a sudden, it's just gone)...just the brutal reality of this world. The time period since the end of the Cold War has been unusual because the U.S. has basically allowed Europe to create a fantasy world that's now going away...

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-threatens-to-pull-out-of-talks-after-israel-strikes-beiruts-outskirts-d0390e22

If you build it along existing pipelines in a country with an autocratic government that profits immensely from getting incremental barrels out to global markets, it can be done much quicker: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/new-uae-pipeline-bypassing-hormuz-now-50-complete-adnoc-ceo-says-2026-05-20/ “The Abu Dhabi Media Office revealed the existence of the new West-East Pipeline project last week, saying Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed directed state-owned oil giant ADNOC to fast-track its construction in order to double export capacity via the port of Fujairah by 2027. "Today, it's already almost 50% complete, and we are accelerating its delivery toward 2027," Sultan Al Jaber said during a live-streamed Atlantic Council event, among his ⁠most extensive public remarks since the war began.” Now, if you tried to pull this off in California or Europe, it would be a different story…

Some estimates say more than a year, and that’s the thing: a year is long enough for new pipelines and other means to be built. A year of not shipping oil is catastrophic for Iran though.

https://behorizon.org/fcas-and-the-hard-limits-of-european-defence-unity/ FCAS is dead. The French and the Germans couldn't come to an agreement. A microcosm of EU and other attempts to unite Europe... Yep, good for F-35 sales and big American contractors in the end

Yep https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-09/china-s-oil-imports-plunge-to-eight-year-low-on-war-disruptions It's almost certain that Trump and Xi have discussed this and I'd say coordinated move by China despite China having to publicly act like a neutral/Iran-leaning party

The problem is that the longer the Strait is closed, the more leakage: the more new pipelines are built, the more overland convoys, the more crazy Greek shippers willing to risk it and smash through the Strait, the more other oil fields around the world pick up the slack. The ROI on building pipelines for the Gulf States is massive Prewar, you had 20 million barrels/day going out of the Strait. Now, it is estimated that about half of that (9-10 million barrels/day) is coming out via pipelines (Saudi East-West does 7 million Barrels/day alone) and overland trucking from Iraq. Then you have maybe 2 million barrels/day leaking directly out of the Strait with U.S. Centcom helping out and you get to a leakage of 11-12 million barrels per day or about half (or more) of prewar Hormuz exports. The pipeline news headlines are also growing: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/the-hormuz-squeeze-is-redrawing-the-oil-map-for-good-cf33d8c0 https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/europes-search-for-alternatives-to-russian-and-middle-eastern-gas-revives-two-african/lx8zxkj Healthy systems are capable of adapting to shocks Meanwhile, Iran's exports are taking a huge hit and their fields are liable to suffer irreversible damage under the U.S. blockade. In the end, waiting it out now seems to be the better option for the U.S... What is additionally interesting is that China seems to be *cooperating* with this process

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/world/middleeast/trump-oil-iran-strait-hormuz.html Oil has been leaking through and around the Strait in increasing amounts as this conflict drags on... China's imports have been way down. As noted, it's in the interests of the most powerful nations that the Spice Must Flow and so Flow the Spice will

A lot of these degenerates use to be in crypto and now they've sold crypto and bought stocks and brought degeneracy to their equity market

He is right. While the S&P 500 is not including SPCX, the Nasdaq-100 relaxed rules to include it which is crazy

Well I was posting about the problems while also making good money in Europe. The EUR appreciation since start of 2025 was a nice tailwind to European returns too. You realize there is nuance, right? For example, my posting and Euro centric analysis protected me from investing in European industrials, chemical companies, auto companies, etc which have been devastated. I owned some German SME mittelstands that were exposed to auto that I thankfully threw in the towel on. Meanwhile, I went nuts with European defense stocks since early last year (recognizing the huge shortfall in their defense spending the past decades and Trump was going to hold them accountable), some of which have multi-bagged. So that’s the other major tangible benefit of actually understanding the problems Europe is going through. Meanwhile, a bunch of value guys like Einhorn have been pitching European chemical cos for years. (Go take a look at how Lanxess and Solvay have done since he pitched them) I like Adyen here along with MTU, Buzzi, some others. Still hold Kongsberg which spun off KMAR.OL and is up nicely since I bought near the lows late last year. Sold out of Indra Sistemas which multi-bagged since I bought early last year. Made a quick return on WAF.DE which went much higher after I sold. Still hold TKMS which I got from spinoff from TKA and is up nicely. Other too that I haven’t listed. Made nice quick returns on Evolution gaming last yr. Quick buckon BOL.PA. HSW.L I still hold. it goes on. So no, I wasn’t wrong and my European adventure has worked out quite well. It would have been even better if European leaders figured out how to get out of the way and actually boost GDP, but you can only ask for so much. Meanwhile, a bunch of Europeans (including on this forum) brag about “Live in Europe, invest in America” while I did the exact opposite. I guess it’s really European citizens who were wrong and missed out on those European returns because they instead sent their capital to invest in America ! Lol