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changegonnacome

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  1. I was reading a couple of articles on this - what was the tax game their being called out for - correct me if I’m wrong but reads like they had somewhat obscured collars on positions that under IRS rules meant their short/long term capital gains calculations were being fudged to push everything into LT. Knowing Ren these weren’t your grandma’s collars but collars none the less which meant the clock was stopped. Edit - good explanation here - https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/02/business/renaissance-irs-robert-mercer-james-simons.html?searchResultPosition=1
  2. I agree with you the concentration in names is there already the only caveat would be some of those names havent gone quite yet into "bonkers" territory..............If you adjust for ultra low interest rates today vs. 1999 and think about the narrative that allowed Coca-Cola to get to crazy prices in 1999 with the 10yr T @ 5.75%. The 10yr at 1.3% today.....well it allows for some possibly nose bleed pricing on FANGMA moving forward that can be justified. Will be interesting to watch over the coming months.
  3. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-03/peak-everything-puts-shine-on-equity-market-s-sturdiest-stocks?sref=7zqHEcxJ Rotation into the 'best' companies is one of Grantham's final template steps in a bubble popping - career risk dictates it as an asset managers last defensible choice.......the keep dancing while music plays part of the market cycle according to Grantham .............if he's right expect Microsoft/Adobe et al to get outrageously expensive in the next few months while a fewer and fewer group of stocks support the broad index levels. I of course remain skeptical of these market calls but interesting to possibly see some of this play out..........regardless I stay invested in dirt cheap companies (MSGE / GLV / BIRG / LBTYK / WFC /CLPR) which by any historical measure would be cheap regardless of where the S&P sits.
  4. Peak optimism/confidence seemed to be sometime between late Feb - May in lots of the high flyers, which are significantly off since then with what might be a dead cat bounce happening in some of those same stocks right now…….if they roll over again in the next couple of months it will be interesting to see where the floor is on some of those. The indices of course have continued to climb higher which is of course the interesting discussion that happening over at the - Are we at a TOP - thread Seems to me liquidity is driving the hot stocks and with kids / college kids back to in-person learning now……..and big kids (office workers) drifting back into the office after Labor Day in greater & greater numbers as the weeks roll on……………your really looking at a cohort of buyers who since Mid-2020 were bored at home/alone & connected to a device that nudged them to buy the dip & preferably with options. Much harder to be messing around on Robinhood with your boss floating around or a co-worker waffling to you about how busy things are with them
  5. I was thinking September 3rd myself……
  6. I listened to Grantham - am aware of his permabear reputation but some things he said did/do resonate with me and I made notes from a couple of his recent podcasts & hard to argue with his points - a natural bias has occurred in my portfolio anyway away from the US but certainly his thoughts/points on the US in particular point to choppy waters ahead IMO. My notes below specifically around US valuations... some obvious, some more nuanced that could be PHD thesis in and off themselves: Historically high PE Ratio on S&P S&P Price to Sales ratio highest ever recorded Valuations underpinned by record high profit margins as % of GDP (tax cuts / DOJ allowing monopolistic industries to emerge naturally or through M&A AND one time unique SG&A corporate cost saving through globalization that saw China/Eastern Europe labor pools drive down costs & compete away labors leverage over capital in U.S. over the last 30 years). Trend likely to be the opposite over the next 20 years. Record valuations underpinned by historically unprecedented high bonds / low interest rates Valuations underpinned by ~30 year period of flat inflation as China/Eastern Europe labor capacity was deflationary.....to be reversed as demographic changes in China, Western World, Japan & Korea reduce global workforce & are not replaced by Globalization 'suitable' labor pools in stable countries i.e. Africa etc. Labor's leverage over capital will return driving down profit margins Record Issuances / Capital Raising as a TOP sign - 2020/21 record IPO’s & SPACS Extreme/seemingly crazy risk taking - Crypto sh!t coins & NFT’s even blank check companies Unprecedented retail participation - ~15 million retail brokerages accounts opened in USA in 20/21 Financial news becoming THE news (GameStop) Investors on margin at record rates Accommodative & complacent FED Particular Mania / Meme Stocks - GameStop etc. a bubble has its own language/ lingo previous nifty fifty - today - HODL, FUD, , to the moon, Breath decreases in the index while it continues higher.......career risk pushes capital away from the once high flyers that begin to rollover think pets.com in 1999 or Fastly today......and in the end herds managers into names with less career risk that allow them to 'keep dancing' as the boat goes over the cliff read Cisco/Coca-Cola in the 90's.....today maybe some of the FANG names Apple/Microsoft/Alpabet I have reservations on some of the above but just outlining points for others here seen as I'd typed them as i listened.
  7. Confidence termites…..I like the analogy His bubble popping/deflating template does seem to be playing out…….the fastly’s & their ilk the most egregiously overvalued stocks etc. have indeed been taken out and shot…..to a certain extent……Russell is struggling and I see in my own portfolio (which skews value) a disconnect between the SP500 being up daily but my modestly priced stocks are having daily drawdowns. I foresee significant long term capital gains selling effects kicking in soon too - I’m certainly sitting on large gains in certain positions where I’m waiting only for the clock to toll midnight to sell. Suspect I’m not alone…..I’ve a hit list of domino positions that will fall over the next couple of months with 90% of them done by the end of October.
  8. Tesla/Elon's dancing AI 'robot' in a leotard last night & the stock rising today was the top signal for me........when Elon himself has jumped the shark so badly with stock promotion antics that beggar belief its a top signal for me. I mean I wondered if this was a sketch from SNL that didn't make the cut or something it was so ridiculous. If this isnt the canary robot in the coal mine not sure what is:
  9. Exactly I think of ETH as a short term beneficiary of what is in effect a bunch of penny/micro-penny stock/token promotion schemes/scams...........a decentralized Stratton Oakmont for the digital age.......ETH does well as long as the plates keep spinning.......until you run out of suckers in the underlying tokens or the SEC comes knocking
  10. Possibly for really really big sums in the millions its a problem.....but for minor league think $100k's robberies.........forget about it....Tornado & Defi non-kyc exchanges can absorb that type of ill gotten gains easily. I've literally stumbled across the instruction book on twitter three or four times now (without searching for it I promise ). Bitcoin/ETH trick criminals use: 1) Receive ETH/BTC tied to crime/hack 2) Send to http://tornado.cash 3) Withdraw from http://tornado.cash 4) Now you have clean ETH in a fresh wallet not tied to identity 5) Use a DeFi non-KYC exchange to swap for another token 6) Use KYC exchange to swap token for dollars/euros
  11. Me too Las Vegas is never shutting down again & NYC......well.......vaccination rates are high, it was epicentre of early COVID so lots of people with Mid-2020 naturally acquired antibodies.....combined NY metro is probably at ~75% of adults with COVID antibodies . Lockdowns wont be needed, health system wont be overwhelemed and NY'ers are done staying in their basements MSG Arena will be full this fall/winter with sports and concerts Rockettes will be jam packed as it has been for 84 years (excepting last year) Tao Group restaurants are already full / booked out in NYC for weekend nights Sports betting is coming to NY state - MSGN will have super engaged viewers for knicks/rangers games & desperate advertisers looking to pitch their gambling gaming app
  12. Yep lines around the block for Tao NY Downtown last weekend….. Read a couple of interviews with various touring groups/comedians in the last couple of months…..there are literally fights breaking out between acts looking to book venues for 2022…..I expect utilization rates for MSG/Radio City/Beacon/Chicago Theatre to be sky high with the roster packed with established high attendance/margin performers.
  13. MSGE dip today couldn’t resist YOLO’ing into some $110 Dec 16 2022 call options..….got filled at $4.80 Thing with Delta is that it’s rapidly driving the US towards herd immunity such that Dec/Jan/Feb period prior to Delta I was concerned would be the the last COVID scare period that could reduce attendance at MSGE assets….the fall COVID spike has IMO been brought way forward I think….put it this way…..if you haven’t had a vaccine yet…..don’t worry Delta will hook you up with some antibodies in the next 6-8 weeks I think just given it’s infectiousness….. MSGE Q4 2021 & the Rockettes will be selling to packed houses
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