StevieV

IDT - Remains undervalued after litigation win. SPHR - I think filling in the schedule with new acts will be a significant boost. The success of U2 should prove out the model to other acts. A 2nd sphere could also be a big catalyst if the company negotiates a company friendly deal (i.e., capital light). PX and BRDG - Have lagged the alts rally. BRDG is lagging because it's real estate and will need to show some fundraising life. However, as per usual, the funds have long lock-ups. BRDG has bounced off its lows, but still is of BRDG isn't pricing in much if any growth in AUM.

Thanks RL. A few fortunate picks in 2023. Thanks to the board for FFH and JOE. Obviously a lot of great insight by Viking and Gregmal on those.

The client separated the possible costs of repairs and rebuilding from his other investible assets and invested the funds instead. He assumed he could make an average return of about 6% on the roughly $1.5 million while waiting for some other insurers to re-enter the market, Newman says. It's a stretch to call this finding a way around the challenge of increasing insurance rates. It is simply choosing to forego insurance. "Instead" of buying insurance, the homeowner will pay for a rebuild out of pocket if something happens. Those are typically the two options.

$OWL

Do you know why APO does convertibles rather than straight debt financing? If I recall correctly, ARES has done some equity financing in the past as well (at much lower prices). I assume they have good reasons.

Made me laugh. Someone in the thread mentioned an 8-12% range of returns. I think that's reasonable enough. Is BRK a more certain index (i.e., you can have more confidence BRK will return 8%+ over time than the SPY) OR single-stock risk without big upside potential?

I agree with this. Particularly the comments on historical evidence and timeframe. History can be a guide, but 6% isn't a law of nature. Also, corporate profits as a percent of GDP broke out above 6% over 20 years ago. That's too long to be useful even if it were to mean revert. Reminds me a bit of the Shiller PE. I think the best one can say is that there is a risk of shrinking margins and, as mattee says, the possibility of lower future returns (again similar to the Shiller PE I guess).

Since there seems to be demand for sell thread postings - I trimmed some LEN-B this morning on what turned out to be a very brief post-earnings bounce.

I think that E&Ps are just reflecting the dump in oil. Big difference in earnings on a drop from $77 WTI (the YTD average) to $67 WTI (today's price).

This post made me look up the Roku CFO. Apparently the Roku CFO announced his retirement last year. New CFO named last week. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dan-jedda-join-roku-chief-133000515.html

I feel like the role of time at a particular rate is under-rated. Taking your example, even if there was a pause at 4%, rates would still be at 4% rather than 2% or 1% or lower. The rates take a while to work through the system.

Small adds to JOE and Fairfax. No heroic moves.

I don't know. I really, really dislike self-checkout. My local grocery store went to 1 cashier lane, got a ton of complaints and long lines and quickly reversed course. I was going to switch grocery stores to be able to have a cashier.

"Pilot company has grown a ton since 2017. They are doing a lot more business than just the truck stops." Do you (or anyone else) mind elaborating? Curious about how they are expanding. I know essentially nothing about the company.

JOE