Political Posts

[RichardGibbons]

4 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

its in the best interest of the CCP to see Congress flip Democrat at the mid-terms.

 

I'm curious why you believe this? It looks to me like China is gaining geopolitical power from Trump's actions, and America is losing it. The more unreliably and hostile the USA acts, the less other countries are going to want to partner with the USA. Effectively, the Republicans are reducing USA's international competitive advantage over China.

 

Even in Canada, there have been the sparks of conversations suggesting that the country should make tighter alliances with China than the USA (not in a "most people think this" sort of way, but more that the idea has been proposed and not immediately ridiculed.)

 

I guess the main downside of the Republicans, from China's perspective, is the loss of the USA market as a result of tariffs, but it seems like that's likely to stabilize before the midterms.

 

So, I'm curious what you think how a Democratic congress is of greater benefit to China than a Republican congress.

[changegonnacome]

17 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

So, I'm curious what you think how a Democratic congress is of greater benefit to China than a Republican congress.

 

A Democratic congress will be a check on Captain Chaos.......the Republican caucus has failed in its duty as co-equal branch of government to check the Presidents unwarranted expansion of authority.....if your a Republican senator or Congressman you are afraid to speak out against the President (never mind voting against him & with democrats....remember Jan 6th....well every Republican politician remembers what would have happened if some of that mob had got their hands on Mike Pence)....they live in fear of Trump unleashing his flying monkeys, especially the monkey called Elon who will drop unlimited money into your district to destroy your constituency support...so the GOP is not an effective chaos mitigator.

 

Now on to China......China succeeds best in a world of predictability and global growth.....Captain Chaos's adventures have harmed both.....see its involved in capital intensive industries with long capital cycles.......chaos is bad for China's business model.......a hobbled lame duck Donald Trump and politically frozen D.C. is in China's best interest.....the reputational loss of trust as a partner has already occured....that 'win' is in the bag so to speak for China.....best now if predictability and global growth prospects can be returned and that is best served by freezing up D.C. with a divided government.

[RichardGibbons]

Ah, okay, I understand your reasoning, and it sounds plausible.  Thanks!

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, RichardGibbons said:

... So, I'm curious what you think how a Democratic congress is of greater benefit to China than a Republican congress.

 

31 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

A Democratic congress will be a check on Captain Chaos.......the Republican caucus has failed in its duty as co-equal branch of government to check the Presidents unwarranted expansion of authority.....if your a Republican senator or Congressman you are afraid to speak out against the President (never mind voting against him & with democrats....remember Jan 6th....well every Republican politician remembers what would have happened if some of that mob had got their hands on Mike Pence)....they live in fear of Trump unleashing his flying monkeys, especially the monkey called Elon who will drop unlimited money into your district to destroy your constituency support...so the GOP is not an effective chaos mitigator.

 

Now on to China......China succeeds best in a world of predictability and global growth.....Captain Chaos's adventures have harmed both.....see its involved in capital intensive industries with long capital cycles.......chaos is bad for China's business model.......a hobbled lame duck Donald Trump and politically frozen D.C. is in China's best interest.....the reputational loss of trust as a partner has already occured....that 'win' is in the bag so to speak for China.....best now if predictability and global growth prospects can be returned and that is best served by freezing up D.C. with a divided government.

 

12 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

Ah, okay, I understand your reasoning, and it sounds plausible.  Thanks!

 

2025W17, Tuesday April 17^th 2024 - American Politics :

 

Are you all kidding me?

[cubsfan]

 I enjoyed this interview with Steve Eisman re: his interpretation of tariffs, DOGE, etc

 

 

 

[gfp]

Re: Canadian election

 

This open letter signed by business executives reads like a Fairfax family tree!

 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pierre-poilievre-criticism-tax-havens-loopholes-1.7509260

 

edit: should have circled Brian Porter!  missed him the first time

Edited April 23, 2025 by gfp

[Castanza]

On 4/21/2025 at 9:18 PM, Spekulatius said:

Anyone remember that one:

 

What a time to be alive. Completely forgot about that 

[Parsad]

22 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

Trump Is Laying the Groundwork to Blame Powell for Any Downturn - WSJ

 

Yup...the message will build and build through the next six months and people will forget about the impact of the tariffs.  The blame will be put on not lowering interest rates sooner.  Cheers!

[Viking]

Japan, Europe, China have all called Trump’s bluff. We could probably include Powell. What an epic fail. 

 

Edited April 23, 2025 by Viking

[Parsad]

12 hours ago, Luke said:

In the current political climate and geopolitical situation china can IMO outlast the US quite easily with less damage than the US. Why should they try to negotiate with trump, someone who has showed again and again that China is their enemy number one. I think the CCP is at a point where they wont agree to visit the US (look at what happened to selensky last time he came publicly) and i dont think high officials will take any phone calls from trump because its simply a waste of time.

 

The tariffs stand or trump will reduce them, china does not have to do anything for it. Instead they should use the opportunity of the tariff blunder to strengthen their impact in asia and europe (which they seem to do successfully right now) and perhaps increase domestic demand with a stimulus at some point.

 

The US is doing a strategic mistake and why stop them from doing so.

 

I'm not sure this is true.  I don't think either one can survive without the other...Munger was right on this.  

 

There is no way China replaces U.S. consumption quickly enough from other nations to prevent a slowdown in China.  And vice versa, the U.S. will be pushed into a recession if consumers stop spending, lose confidence and business slows.

 

They both need to negotiate and find a way through to working together.  Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

I am. It sure hat to make out of this, They are hyping deal with China but as far we know there have been no talks yet. Bessent/  Trump are sort of caving here, but then Trump also said  that they are setting the terms.Seems all like vaporware to me.

 

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 I enjoyed this interview with Steve Eisman re: his interpretation of tariffs, DOGE, etc

 

 

 

 

Cubs, I agree that was an excellent interview!  Actually, probably the best analysis I've seen anywhere so far on the whole thing.  Recommend that everyone listen to it...it's a few weeks old, but dead on! 

 

I want those results...but I think like the Strategus analyst said, there was no real plan for part of it...just Trump saying "I want this!"  

 

I agree with most of the stuff happening, but I'm concerned (just like I was concerned about enormous interference during the GFC and after), that they may be creating other problems by taking a chainsaw to things rather than a scalpel or passing stuff through Congress that is more effective.

 

That analyst (Dan Clifton) is probably one of the most knowledgeable people I've read or heard anywhere in the last year.  Brilliant guy!  He would be a great addition to any administration.  Cheers! 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

Japan, Europe, China have all called Trump’s bluff. We could probably include Powell. What an epic fail. 

 

 

Not sure.  Watch that Eisman video that Cubs linked.  I think that Strategus analyst has got probably the best grip on this thing.  There is an endgame, and Trump probably has the more favorable cards presently, but that doesn't mean the outcome will be the one he wants or exactly the way he wants...same with the world.  It's more complicated.  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

Yea Steve Eisman is great. So practical and fluid with his process. 

[Parsad]

5 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea Steve Eisman is great. So practical and fluid with his process. 

 

Eisman made sure it was easy to understand, but that analyst REALLY knew his numbers!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

For those that agree all DEI programs should be removed and all hiring for positions based on merit, can you explain to me how Pete Hegseth's brother was made his advisor?

 

https://apnews.com/article/hegseth-brother-signal-dhs-hired-68678a8a653c79a4c6ae31a8bee64836

 

All these nepotism hirings, doesn't matter which party, should be totally illegal for government positions.

 

Cheers!

[Paarslaars]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

For those that agree all DEI programs should be removed and all hiring for positions based on merit, can you explain to me how Pete Hegseth's brother was made his advisor?

 

https://apnews.com/article/hegseth-brother-signal-dhs-hired-68678a8a653c79a4c6ae31a8bee64836

 

All these nepotism hirings, doesn't matter which party, should be totally illegal for government positions.

 

Cheers!

I am just as much opposed to nepotism as DEI.

[Parsad]

6 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Yup...the message will build and build through the next six months and people will forget about the impact of the tariffs.  The blame will be put on not lowering interest rates sooner.  Cheers!

 

Definitely looks like any downturn will now be blamed on Powell.  

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-i-have-no-intention-of-firing-feds-powell-215018599.html

 

They probably won't be able to fire him, but now they have a scapegoat who will be the one responsible!  Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Parsad said:

For those that agree all DEI programs should be removed and all hiring for positions based on merit, can you explain to me how Pete Hegseth's brother was made his advisor?

 

https://apnews.com/article/hegseth-brother-signal-dhs-hired-68678a8a653c79a4c6ae31a8bee64836

 

All these nepotism hirings, doesn't matter which party, should be totally illegal for government positions.

 

Cheers!

Hegseth himself is a DEI hire. He is totally unqualified.

[Luke]

 

 

Art of the deal! We are going to have a great relationship with President Xi and tariffs will be lower, everyone will be happy!

[Luke]

https://asiatimes.com/2025/04/trump-trade-war-its-worse-than-a-crime-its-a-blunder/

 

Unfortunately, there is a difference between losing and losing even worse. There is a price to pay for not going down without a fight. Trump’s economic war with China is a blunder of historic, perhaps civilizational, proportions.

Because a second-place America is so distasteful to certain parts of the US psyche, Trump is obliged to choose losing even worse. On some level, America rationally understands that it cannot win with the hand it holds and because of that, the only option is to chimp out, throw everything at the wall – chip sanctions, tariffs, alliances, libelous accusations – and lose spectacularly, irrationally and cathartically.

 

Apologies MAGA folks, Trump is not playing 5D chess. America will soon fold in its foolish economic war with China. In the next few months, large swathes of American industry will shut down as prices of intermediate goods surge and supply of rare earth and other crucial inputs dries up. Store shelves will empty out and inflation will skyrocket. Whoever believed that deficit economies with a deficient industrial base had leverage will eat humble pie.

 

Whatever face-saving climb-down Chinese President Xi Jinping offers President Trump will be understood by all to mean the US has surrendered global economic leadership to China. Treasuries will embed a permanent “moron premium”, American universities will fall in the league tables and America’s global alliances will come undone – slowly at first, then suddenly.

 

 

This is, mind you, the best-case scenario. Permanent damage has already been done. The worst-case scenario will veer off from the blunder of a trade war to something more sinister and criminal. We can all use our imaginations for the possible combinations and permutations of worst-case outcomes.

How bad would surrendering economic leadership to China be? Much of it is just accepting reality. China is already a far bigger economy than the US (see here). People who insist otherwise have just led the US into an unwinnable trade war.

 

China already leads in science and technology. No one is denying that America has made a greater contribution to science than China in the past– far greater. It’s just that China will contribute more in the future – far more.

Second place is not something that should embarrass any American. The nation still has the magnificent physical endowments that Zeihan correctly points out. It’s just that the people have been run ragged by decades of foreign wars, political capture by capital and political division.

Zeihan gets China wrong because he refuses to appreciate the breathtaking leveling up of the nation’s human capital. That is also his blind spot for America, whose human capital has been stagnant at best.

Liberated from the burden of being number one, which has largely been a pretense anyway, America can finally surrender to the generosity of providence and do the right thing for its citizens – come home, circle wagons, lick wounds and get around to planting that tree.

[Luke]

Some good comments:

 

 

 

[Sweet]

So what are the tariffs on China right?  Are they still unchanged?

[Luke]

And tariffs are out again xD China stocks booming.

[rogermunibond]

China tariff levels suggested in WSJ article are still too high but right direction.

 

A good tax cut package and Federal fiscal budget cuts plus big big de-regulation and away we go.