Dalal.Holdings

Europeans have touted their social safety net and "quality of life" since the 1990s. They have neglected economic productivity, technology, and defense since then and it's no coincidence. The problem is that guys like Putin will always exist and if you don't have defense (or technology/productivity), one day that nice social safety net and "quality of life" will be taken from you (all of a sudden, it's just gone)...just the brutal reality of this world. The time period since the end of the Cold War has been unusual because the U.S. has basically allowed Europe to create a fantasy world that's now going away...

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-threatens-to-pull-out-of-talks-after-israel-strikes-beiruts-outskirts-d0390e22

If you build it along existing pipelines in a country with an autocratic government that profits immensely from getting incremental barrels out to global markets, it can be done much quicker: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/new-uae-pipeline-bypassing-hormuz-now-50-complete-adnoc-ceo-says-2026-05-20/ “The Abu Dhabi Media Office revealed the existence of the new West-East Pipeline project last week, saying Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed directed state-owned oil giant ADNOC to fast-track its construction in order to double export capacity via the port of Fujairah by 2027. "Today, it's already almost 50% complete, and we are accelerating its delivery toward 2027," Sultan Al Jaber said during a live-streamed Atlantic Council event, among his ⁠most extensive public remarks since the war began.” Now, if you tried to pull this off in California or Europe, it would be a different story…

Some estimates say more than a year, and that’s the thing: a year is long enough for new pipelines and other means to be built. A year of not shipping oil is catastrophic for Iran though.

https://behorizon.org/fcas-and-the-hard-limits-of-european-defence-unity/ FCAS is dead. The French and the Germans couldn't come to an agreement. A microcosm of EU and other attempts to unite Europe... Yep, good for F-35 sales and big American contractors in the end

Yep https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-09/china-s-oil-imports-plunge-to-eight-year-low-on-war-disruptions It's almost certain that Trump and Xi have discussed this and I'd say coordinated move by China despite China having to publicly act like a neutral/Iran-leaning party

The problem is that the longer the Strait is closed, the more leakage: the more new pipelines are built, the more overland convoys, the more crazy Greek shippers willing to risk it and smash through the Strait, the more other oil fields around the world pick up the slack. The ROI on building pipelines for the Gulf States is massive Prewar, you had 20 million barrels/day going out of the Strait. Now, it is estimated that about half of that (9-10 million barrels/day) is coming out via pipelines (Saudi East-West does 7 million Barrels/day alone) and overland trucking from Iraq. Then you have maybe 2 million barrels/day leaking directly out of the Strait with U.S. Centcom helping out and you get to a leakage of 11-12 million barrels per day or about half (or more) of prewar Hormuz exports. The pipeline news headlines are also growing: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/the-hormuz-squeeze-is-redrawing-the-oil-map-for-good-cf33d8c0 https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/europes-search-for-alternatives-to-russian-and-middle-eastern-gas-revives-two-african/lx8zxkj Healthy systems are capable of adapting to shocks Meanwhile, Iran's exports are taking a huge hit and their fields are liable to suffer irreversible damage under the U.S. blockade. In the end, waiting it out now seems to be the better option for the U.S... What is additionally interesting is that China seems to be *cooperating* with this process

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/world/middleeast/trump-oil-iran-strait-hormuz.html Oil has been leaking through and around the Strait in increasing amounts as this conflict drags on... China's imports have been way down. As noted, it's in the interests of the most powerful nations that the Spice Must Flow and so Flow the Spice will

A lot of these degenerates use to be in crypto and now they've sold crypto and bought stocks and brought degeneracy to their equity market

He is right. While the S&P 500 is not including SPCX, the Nasdaq-100 relaxed rules to include it which is crazy

Well I was posting about the problems while also making good money in Europe. The EUR appreciation since start of 2025 was a nice tailwind to European returns too. You realize there is nuance, right? For example, my posting and Euro centric analysis protected me from investing in European industrials, chemical companies, auto companies, etc which have been devastated. I owned some German SME mittelstands that were exposed to auto that I thankfully threw in the towel on. Meanwhile, I went nuts with European defense stocks since early last year (recognizing the huge shortfall in their defense spending the past decades and Trump was going to hold them accountable), some of which have multi-bagged. So that’s the other major tangible benefit of actually understanding the problems Europe is going through. Meanwhile, a bunch of value guys like Einhorn have been pitching European chemical cos for years. (Go take a look at how Lanxess and Solvay have done since he pitched them) I like Adyen here along with MTU, Buzzi, some others. Still hold Kongsberg which spun off KMAR.OL and is up nicely since I bought near the lows late last year. Sold out of Indra Sistemas which multi-bagged since I bought early last year. Made a quick return on WAF.DE which went much higher after I sold. Still hold TKMS which I got from spinoff from TKA and is up nicely. Other too that I haven’t listed. Made nice quick returns on Evolution gaming last yr. Quick buckon BOL.PA. HSW.L I still hold. it goes on. So no, I wasn’t wrong and my European adventure has worked out quite well. It would have been even better if European leaders figured out how to get out of the way and actually boost GDP, but you can only ask for so much. Meanwhile, a bunch of Europeans (including on this forum) brag about “Live in Europe, invest in America” while I did the exact opposite. I guess it’s really European citizens who were wrong and missed out on those European returns because they instead sent their capital to invest in America ! Lol

Who ever heard of Cleveland Research before? What a clown show

The problem is that European countries have generous welfare/social safety nets so they do not feel the decline just yet and do not complain much. They say “our healthcare and lifestyle is better” as their GDP share grinds down…the problem is that one day all of a sudden the chickens will come home to roost and the social handouts will collapse all at once

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/german-autos-climate-mandates-regulations-abdc041d Has the WSJ Editorial Board been reading this thread?

A lot of the UK's energy woes can be blamed on the monarchy--what do you expect from an aristocratic class of people who live off generational trust funds (really massive welfare from their country) and have never had to really work a day in their lives ? https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/contrarian-indicators The monarchy is clueless and ordinary citizens will pay as a result...well hey, good for Norway...who knows, maybe one day they can buy the British Monarchy or the entire UK outright... I think any heavy industry in the UK is uninvestable until proven otherwise.

Re-entered 6637.T Terasaki Electric Co...luckily at lower prices than where I sold last year

BATRK, LILAK, CHTR, LILA, FWONK…so many Malone turds got flushed down the toilet. Looks like Todd’s investment process was way over-indexed on the Malone theme and it cost him years of performance and his BRK gig. He’s not the only investor who got Malone’d in recent years...cults are dangerous things.

So Greg investing in Airlines (Delta) and Retailers (Macys) now? Lol, guess he learned nothing from Warren and Charlie...

Yes this is true: there are a lot of crazed lefty ideologues in power not just in the UK but across Europe. Brussels Crew/EU is their headquarters. These people think they are smarter than everyone else because they became brainwashed by dogma in years of schooling and they have the fancy degrees to show it... The question is what is going to change this? I think it's going to be political upheaval since these idiots in charge don't learn from their own mistakes.

Chemical companies based in USA having a major structural advantage...

They are lying so they can keep the environmentalists happy. It's fine if they bring the country to the brink of ruin as long as they don't upset those people...

17% IRR is amazing for Einhorn. Too bad his overall results the past 15 year are much lower. One would think that a “sophisticated” hedge fund like Greenlight would have a bunch of analysts and associates doing work on Kyndrll to have known there were accounting issues. Even Gotham City Research put out a short report when this thing was in the high 30s, low 40s (near all time highs) that could have allowed him to exit there. I’m not sure what exactly the employees at Greenlight must do, but it must be nice gig—esp considering he hired the likes of James Fishback. Einhorn probably just checked out most days

https://www.ft.com/content/3a19252d-ea24-4027-ae1d-3f2c982340c2 Imagine running a deeply underperforming fund for 30 years and then throwing a lavish party to celebrate it...then also putting this on the invitation. Guy is just a doofus

KD imploded and is now near that spinoff price. Seems like some accounting issues...you know, something one would hope Einhorn would know about

Does Gayner still own this? Management barely own any. Good for them… Always fun to look back on these disasters. This one had the Graham Holdings, Tom Gayner, and Cable bro trifecta going for it…a “Lollapalooza Effect” if you will EDIT: looks like he sold out recently…