Jump to content

Sinbius

Member
  • Posts

    123
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Sinbius

  1. Lousy demographic...well Europe and US too have lousy demographic right? Lousy geostrategic location...it's the country with the most long term investment about global trade... Lack of resources...Has a way better work force than europe and US... Lousy leadership...have you looked at Biden and the FED (they are both a big joke) or what's happening in UK or Europe? There is no country without big sins and structural problems...because human nature is always the same...
  2. For the people that insist commenting that the The title of this thread is "Is the Bottom almost here?" .... For this thread, that you people can find cheap stocks is the thing that really does not matter... But of course we love to hear those names
  3. You all dodged the question...I understand there are cheap stocks...the question was "Do you consider the market on average cheap" ...I made that question because it seems there are a lot of bulls here...
  4. Do you consider the market on average cheap considering what's happing in the real economy and with interest rates at Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 18.59 and Current Shiller PE Ratio: 27.53 ?
  5. There are people that don't think it will be just next year... This is a global economic crisis... People used to say inflation is transitory...now recession is transitory I guess...well in a sense it will be...
  6. It increased 0.3% month over month....
  7. Trying to understand your point of view better... Are you of the idea that inflation is going lower AND it will keep going lower next months too until reach something around 2-3%? And you think it is going down because supply is reaching demand or because demand is getting lower and will keep getting lower (recession)?
  8. Thank you for the info ^^ ...not as bad as i thought...still skeptical on this kind of redistributions of wealth... (my reference ideas on economics is mainly the book Henry Hazlitt: economics in one lesson...it could be wrong or partially wrong but it really makes sense to me...)
  9. Dont' worry about inflation...we have a plan!!! Relief checks: At least 20 states are sending cash to their residents this year — and more could be coming (yahoo.com) Can someone explain it?...I don't get it...
  10. Don't be a perma-bear!!! Look from 6.0% to 5.9% ....getting lower...it is transitory, US government can pay 6% on his debt, just print more what bad could come from? ...never bet against America!!! they are great savers, with a great democracy and great politicians... (I tried to refrain myself from trolling and tried to act like a mature adult human being...I couldn't...)
  11. I read it...I didn't like it...another book that was time wasted... I have the problem that from investments books I mainly want real world examples on how to invest and why...insights into business models etc...
  12. I don't follow Buffett investment style...I am not a Buffett fan...too much hypocritical and fake for my taste... And I don't sympathize for his lifestyle neither... And words are cheap... Of course he makes me some money so in a way he is welcome I like Peter Lynch way more, as a person too, I would like to be good enough to "follow" him (his investment style) and being fully invested...I am not that good right now (but I have my strong points too..)... I know he doesn't ever look at macro .... And everybody has to find his investment style...looking at others is good only as a starting point...
  13. What's in it that you didn't know before reading it?....or better what's in it that you haven't read before in one way or another at least 100 times?
  14. No, I didn't sold now when the market was off...I sold a bit when prices where higher and I am not buying back the same staff at lower prices still... (Rhetoric mode on): I follow Buffett advice be greedy when other are fearful and whatever... Now everybody is greedy because we had some sell off and everybody is short term memory and trade mainly based on prices not valuations (Buffett indicator remember)...so they buy greedy greedy greedy expecting the usual bump like there could be the FED put or some other put to save the day... I follow Buffett advice...I zig when people zag... How Buffett invented a macro indicator to spot if market is overvalued if he never look at macro?...it is a mystery...
  15. No...the more time pass the more I am extremely picky...and I don't have immense knowledge about anything...so it is hard for me... Market is off but it is still extremely overvalued according to shiller pe Shiller PE Ratio (multpl.com) ...also according to p/s... S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio (multpl.com) also according to the Buffett indicator for the Buffett fans!!!! Buffett Indicator: The percent of total market cap relative to Gross National Product? (gurufocus.com) Aren't you all Buffett fans?...wait...you don't pick and choose what he says to suit you, do you?
  16. I never said or imply that...(and going forward without a time frame does not make sense...)... It is probably me, that english is not my language I guess... I said that I set the bar higher...because the probabilities that some great opportunities is coming is higher...peak margins...so I want to be conservative in the valuations...earnings power, or owner earnings or whatever we want to call it and growth rates are probably lower of what are represented and what consensus is ... (...if I put the security belt on before driving it is not because I think I will have an accident...not trying to time the bottom of my life...)
  17. I have never ever being shy to push money...just picky... ...and I repeat because it seems it is not clear if I had found at least 1 or 2 other extremely good opportunities I would be all invested right now...I just didn't...
  18. 1: You are wrong in thinking that I am trying to time the bottom (as I have told numerous time I am not...I can't...) 2: About the phrase "You are being theoretical now after a 20% plus drop...not practical..."...I don't get your point...the theory vs practical was about that even if in the long term equities on average is an hedge vs inflation in practice could make sense setting the bar higher at the cost of having some cash...so I did in practice...
  19. I don't believe in efficient market hypothesis. I don't believe in trying to time the bottom. I don't believe that the only thing that matters is the daily market quotes. I believe that we have a material probability that we are at peak margins, that the FED fuc3ed up, that due too inflation there is no pumping money to save the day, I believe we are in a RECESSION ...I believe that valuations are generally high, I believe that consumer confidence is low, I believe people are cutting spending...I believe companies are freezing hiring and laying off and they will keep doing it...
  20. From the start of the year can we agree you would have lost more having equity than cash (on average)? ( and of course you have to account for the lose of value due to inflation also on the value of stocks...if a stock lose 20% in real term, accounting for inflation, it has lost 28,6% or whatever it is...) (You probably mean that in the long term equity is a good hedge against inflation and of course it is true...) In theory, theory and practice are the same, in practice they are not.
  21. Not trying to time the bottom...I just think cash have more value...I am just setting the bar higher...
  22. 1: About hunches...Have you ever being confident that the fundamental of a business are good and are improving?...same thing as me...just I'm confident that fundamentals of most business are going bad... 2: about .."And the thing is, "ultra great investments" are rare. And they don't look like "really easy to understand, extremely attractive" bets at the time."...I agree they are rare...I have 3 positions...are you more concentrated? And yes they look easy to understand (after you dig in) and extremely attractive to me...as Peter Lynch said (of course that Peter Lynch said it means $hit...but people use rhetoric using Buffett name so I reserve the right to use rhetoric with Lynch name... ) "you should never invest in any idea that you can't illustrate with a crayon" 3: about "But if 80/20, you're only talking about investing at the margins (where's your confidence?)." I repeat I am just raising the standard of what I invest in BECAUSE it is pretty obvious (to me) that the potential value of cash is increasing...if I find something amazing today I just go all in instantly...
  23. If your definition of a perma-bear someone that sometimes is "only" 80% invested (I was also 100% invested sometimes) I guess I am guilty If that's the definition Buffett is more perma-bear than me looking at how he managed brk portfolio...^^ Wait Buffett too didn't act in 2020...you know why you didn't say (and you never will) that he too undoubtedly finds reason to not act in the future? I know...
×
×
  • Create New...