Political Posts

[Gregmal]

34 minutes ago, gfp said:

I'm back from a trip and I see we are still freaking out here on the corner!

The Corner of Cash and Crying. 

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

The dollar was near record highs almost neat parity with the Euro not too long ago. Relax

 

Year to date : 

 

One year :

 

Three years :

 

[SharperDingaan]

4 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:

Ok what you mean then is the relative change of capital flows and the effect on price (without taking into effect the induced currency echange variation arising from such changes in flows).

Read a few times lately (some kind of paraphrase): foreign investors have started to "dump" US assets and are recycling the USD into their own domestic currency blah blah ..

What one needs to remember is that we basically live in a close circuit. The USDs circulating do not disappear, they go around. So maybe the huge foreign inflows of USD going back through the capital account will decrease because of tariff limitations and all but this decrease in foreign inflows (mathematically) needs (to balance) the expected decrease in the US trade deficit.

For net capital flow out of the US to happen, the US would need to become a trade surplus country!

For interest, here's the foreign appetite (Japan) for US treasuries. Recently they've sold some of them in exchange for USD. And then, what can they do, on a sustainable basis, with the accumulated USDs? Continue to buy (and strengthen) Yens?

The main point: The USD remains the underlying gold standard until a better option becomes possible and (opinion), at least so far, cryptocurrencies have not met the fundamental criteria to meet such alternative standard. i still expect, apart from temporary technical (noise) reasons, the USD (and equivalent Treasuries) to remain a safe haven and, counterintuitively, the recent US-based attempts to change the global financial order may precipitate such dynamics (reach for safety). Why? As you referred (oil crisis period), i was a kid basically when there were widespread beliefs that the USD was under threat as a global currency only to find out a few years later that the USD became even more at the center of the global financial system after Bretton Woods failed!

-----

Yes, the trade deficit vs GDP needs to come down, and it will, somehow..

 

 

Keep in mind the timing of these flows. Capital outflows are immediate, but the surplus thing is much later ... and ONLY if the world has confidence in your nation. A time lag that could stretch into YEARS ... the more screwed up the US becomes.

 

And if you want that surplus ... you have to be producing goods cheaper than everyone else. Not going to happen in the US unless there is extensive automation.

 

SD

 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

The Corner of Cash and Crying. 

 

The point of this? 

 

Aren't you guys crying every time DIS sticks some "woke" (whatever the hell that is) idea into an old classic?  

 

I mean look at the shit that you guys have been crying about for years.  Boycott BUD...boycott TGT...boycott DIS...boycott Harvard...boycott Columbia...the list goes on and on.

 

Talk about crying!  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Aren't you guys crying every time DIS sticks some "woke" (whatever the hell that is) idea into an old classic?  

 

Nah, analyzing Disneys horrible performance and dismal capital allocation, along with potentially the willful destruction of IP has been….the correct investment focus. 
 

I wasn’t really involved all that much in the others, but did buy some Target recently. But that’s investment discussion, not the Cash and Crying Corner.

[dealraker]

6 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

The point of this? 

 

Aren't you guys crying every time DIS sticks some "woke" (whatever the hell that is) idea into an old classic?  

 

I mean look at the shit that you guys have been crying about for years.  Boycott BUD...boycott TGT...boycott DIS...boycott Harvard...boycott Columbia...the list goes on and on.

 

Talk about crying!  Cheers!

+10.  

[Parsad]

14 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Nah, analyzing Disneys horrible performance and dismal capital allocation, along with potentially the willful destruction of IP has been….the correct investment focus. 
 

I wasn’t really involved all that much in the others, but did buy some Target recently. But that’s investment discussion, not the Cash and Crying Corner.

 

It's funny how you guys paint the site as "crying" when you guys generally start these political threads, as well as the targeted shots.  I mean was anyone asking to hear "Cash and Crying Corner"?

 

Maybe I should actually start purging the site...no different than Trump.  I get a shitload of complaints...then I get a shitload of comments about what the site has become...usually from the same bunch of guys who post the detrimental stuff.

 

PCOB...Purge Corner of Berkshire!  Coming soon!  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

It's funny how you guys paint the site as "crying" when you guys generally start these political threads, as well as the targeted shots.  I mean was anyone asking to hear "Cash and Crying Corner"?

 

Maybe I should actually start purging the site...no different than Trump.  I get a shitload of complaints...then I get a shitload of comments about what the site has become...usually from the same bunch of guys who post the detrimental stuff.

 

PCOB...Purge Corner of Berkshire!  Coming soon!  Cheers!

Please start. 

[John Hjorth]

27 minutes ago, Parsad said:

The point of this? 

 

Aren't you guys crying every time DIS sticks some "woke" (whatever the hell that is) idea into an old classic?  

 

I mean look at the shit that you guys have been crying about for years.  Boycott BUD...boycott TGT...boycott DIS...boycott Harvard...boycott Columbia...the list goes on and on.

 

Talk about crying!  Cheers!

 

18 minutes ago, dealraker said:

+10.  

 

Awesome entertainment. Just saying.

[Gregmal]

So the actionable investment idea? Long Mattress Firm and Kimberley Clarke. Nice 

[Dalal.Holdings]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Year to date : 

 

One year :

 

Three years :

 

Zoom out

 

[John Hjorth]

3 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Zoom out ... 

 

@Dalal.Holdings,

 

You're right. It does not really matter much. The place on the planet in general to buy good stuff is still USA. No doubt about that.

[Dalal.Holdings]

17 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Dalal.Holdings,

 

You're right. It does not really matter much. The place on the planet in general to buy good stuff is still USA. No doubt about that.

 

If the dollar loses value vs Euro, Yen, etc not only are exports boosted, but so are the dollar denominated earnings of all the multinational U.S. businesses.

[Spekulatius]

13 hours ago, Investor20 said:

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/drugs-fentanyl-supplychain/

We bought everything needed to make $3 million worth of fentanyl.
All it took was $3,600 and a web browser
July 25, 2024
At the tap of a buyer’s smartphone, Chinese chemical sellers will air-ship fentanyl ingredients door-to-door to North America. Reuters purchased enough to make 3 million pills. Such deals are astonishingly easy – and reveal how drug traffickers are eluding efforts to halt the deadly trade behind the fentanyl crisis..

 

What is the plan, like Obama and Biden try another diplomatic agreement?

Or Time to Apply Warren Buffett Principle

You can't make a good deal with a bad person.

Fentanyl is fairly easy to make and there was an article in the WSJ that the supply chain shifted to India. Soon with the tariffs on ingredients, we will have a plentiful domestic supply, I am sure.

 

The ingredients to produce fentanyl are  commonly used for other purposes and I don’t think they are even forbidden to own.

Edited April 18, 2025 by Spekulatius

[dwy000]

12 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Fentanyl is fairly easy to make and there was an article in the WSJ that the supply chain shifted to India. Soon with the tariffs on ingredients, we will have a plentiful domestic supply, I am sure.

 

The ingredients to produce fentanyl are  commonly used for other purposes and I don’t think they are even forbidden to own.

To quote John Wick "it was never about the fucking dog/fentanyl"

[73 Reds]

14 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Nah, analyzing Disneys horrible performance and dismal capital allocation, along with potentially the willful destruction of IP has been….the correct investment focus. 
 

I wasn’t really involved all that much in the others, but did buy some Target recently. But that’s investment discussion, not the Cash and Crying Corner.

Yeah, it's really simple; when a company prioritizes anything but profits it becomes a worse investment.  

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 4/11/2025 at 6:14 AM, Spekulatius said:

It appears that there is now a delisting threat to Chinese equities due to deteriorating relationships with China. This happened  before in late 2020 when some Chinese companies were delisted and you could not buy them any more on US exchanges:

https://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/3306203/delisting-us-listed-chinese-firms-boost-hong-kongs-status-fundraising-hub?module=top_story&pgtype=section
 

I think the chances are better than 50% that this is going to happen.

 

Time to transfer those ADRs to IB so you can hold the foreign share directly when they dissolve. 

[Sweet]

A purge would make the site measurably worse.

 

Everyone has their moment crying, I’ll reserve my opinion on which side cries most or first - if only because nobody cares.

 

It’s hard to keep politics out of this investments at the moment when so much of it is political.

 

However I think the politics section was very helpful at keeping it out of the general chat and investment board.  So I would vote for its return.

 

Edited April 18, 2025 by Sweet

[John Hjorth]

Reuters [April 18^th 2025] : US will abandon Ukraine peace push if no progress 'within a matter of days,' Rubio says.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

The message also confirmed by POTUS verbally from the White House. [Yellow tie! - Easter!]

 

Personally, I've the whole time considered this initative by POTUS noble. I also think it's about time to drag a line in the sand, meaning now or not. *BS* needs to be called.

 

The striding parties can't continue to drag this out any longer for this madness to continue.. I just hope there will be made an example of procedural harm to the presumptuous party stalling the process.

 

I have absolutely no idea about what the check-out of USA from the process eventually may bring, if that happens, for Ukraine, for Russia and in the end for whole Europe. It's just a disaster, calamity, taking a turn into something worse, much worse.

 

It's just extremely frustrating to think about. *sigh* 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Happy Easter to all CofB&F members and families ! 

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

A purge would make the site measurably worse.

 

Everyone has their moment crying, I’ll reserve my opinion on which side cries most or first - if only because nobody cares.

 

It’s hard to keep politics out of this investments at the moment when so much of it is political.

 

However I think the politics section was very helpful at keeping it out of the general chat and investment board.  So I would vote for its return.

 

The thing is, Sanjeev leans left, and it’s fine. You call em like you see em, all good. Some bias is natural. Overall he’s done a good job. But shit like quoting how most of the complaints are about certain posters or topics when this site overwhelmingly leans left is laughable. Stepping back, you can clearly see the number mismatch. 
 

There was a clear correlation to certain actions being taken and stocks suffering, IE losing value…Disney, Target, Bud….yet discussing that, which yes that series of events in itself thru proper investment discussion, can help determine whether those self inflicted wounds can in fact become an opportunity… constitutes us “crying”…so then cue…”we re whining so it’s all equal”. Even though the most popular 2-3 threads on this site the past couple months are 90% directionally the same people(anti Trump, anti Musk) just whining and piling on quoting each other in some circular jerking activity. 

[cwericb]

39 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The thing is, Sanjeev leans left, and it’s fine. You call em like you see em, all good. Some bias is natural. Overall he’s done a good job. But shit like quoting how most of the complaints are about certain posters or topics when this site overwhelmingly leans left is laughable. Stepping back, you can clearly see the number mismatch. 
 

 

Did you ever consider that if one is far right then pretty well everything looks left?

 

Also what is left/right in the US does not necessarily seem quite the same in Canada. 

 

Everything is relative. JMHO

[Gregmal]

16 minutes ago, cwericb said:

 

Did you ever consider that if one is far right then pretty well everything looks left?

 

Also what is left/right in the US does not necessarily seem quite the same in Canada. 

 

Everything is relative. JMHO

That’s not what’s occurring here though. Out of nowhere we went form no politics to conveniently, “it must be discussed” and now the most dominant threads are just shallow bitching and moaning, tribal derangement and little actual investment related anything. Then it’s raised and it’s like “oh you talked about stocks that did political shit in the investment section” lol. 

[cwericb]

46 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Even though the most popular 2-3 threads on this site the past couple months are 90% directionally the same people(anti Trump, anti Musk) just whining and piling on quoting each other in some circular jerking activity. 

 

Essentially this board is/was originally Canadian and a good percentage of members are Canadian. After all, it started about Fairfax a Canadian company. Do you really expect Canadians to be happy with a President/Country who constantly insults and threatens our country? Who voices lies about us with every mention of our country? Who referred to our previous Prime Minister as Governor and Canada as the 51st state? Who ho has stated that the policy of the United States is the intention of taking over Canada?

 

One wonders how citizens of the US would like it if China started talking that way about the United States? One doubts the American citizens would be warm and fuzzy referring to the leader of China.

 

 

[gfp]

I don't know if this is the right thread for this or not but I just got of the phone with a friend in Victoria and boy oh boy is Canada united in this US boycott - like generational damage.  Not pissed over tariffs per se, but over the annexation talk, which is so pointless because there isn't even a negotiating point to causing that damage.  It's just a non-starter that only harms the relationship.

 

"At least five people I know have sold their properties in the US.  And everyone I know has cancelled some or all of their US travel."

 

Could be super positive for Canada long term because to talk to this friend, the country hasn't been this united behind something in recent memory, if ever.

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/BuyCanadian/?share_id=BHZKc2ob9FToLNsRUYfn0&utm_content=1&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_source=share&utm_term=1

 

 

[Gregmal]

7 minutes ago, cwericb said:

 

Essentially this board is/was originally Canadian and a good percentage of members are Canadian. After all, it started about Fairfax a Canadian company. Do you really expect Canadians to be happy with a President/Country who constantly insults and threatens our country? Who voices lies about us with every mention of our country? Who referred to our previous Prime Minister as Governor and Canada as the 51st state? Who ho has stated that the policy of the United States is the intention of taking over Canada?

 

One wonders how citizens of the US would like it if China started talking that way about the United States? One doubts the American citizens would be warm and fuzzy referring to the leader of China.

 

 

Totally agree and it's understandable and valid....but, what value at all does having this "emotional" raging gunk up investment topics/threads have to this site? Im sure there are personal therapy forums out there for that shit.