2022 returns thread

[no_free_lunch]

I am up by some small margin, maybe +2%.

 

Big contributions from FFH, AMGN, NOC.  Offset by some nastiness in other names. 

 

All in all, I am thrilled with the results and most on here should be as well.  If you think about it, we managed to navigate the resetting of interest rates back to 4%+, the bursting of the tech bubble and some significant geopolitical events.   Or another perspective, I am more comfortable right now with the future outlook that I was 12 months ago.  To be in this situation with the portfolio intact is a treat.

 

Good luck to you all next year.  I continue to learn so much and for sure I would have posted much weaker, more index like results if not for the commentary I find here.

Edited December 31, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[frommi]

+10% in USD, many thanks for all the info in here about FFH, that was my safe harbor this year.

[dealraker]

2 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

+10.5% in USD (+16.9% in EUR).

 

Crunching the numbers now, a couple of things are surprising:

 

- Biggest loser is Brookfield. Shout out to ole’ dealraker for keeping the skepticism alive, otherwise my position might have been even bigger.

 

- I entered the year leveraged long, heavily in Berkshire, hedged by short SPY and AAPL calls that were both deep in-the-money. Turns out all the profit this year is from the hedges, because SPY and AAPL tanked, while Berkshire held up overall (after a wild ride).

 

- 9 year CAGR is 15.1% in USD. Could have achieved the same going 135% long Berkshire 9 years ago and never spending another minute on the markets. 

backtothebeach I did buy a tad of BAM on a limit order twice this year.  Neither time did either get completely filled.  LOL.

 

Up some this year given AJG and BRK are largest by far and I messed some in energy.  Lowe's down; Markel up; BAM down of course; MDLZ up just a tad; and oh my lordy my 3rd largest holding ERIE has inexplicably gone through the damn roof...for what reason I have not the slightest clue of course as it seems 100% illogical.  That stuff is 90-93% of it all  maybe more.  Oh, forgot NSC, it is the most down....I guess down in % about like BAM.  

 

Borrowed my gains in advance from next few years...that's my view.  

Edited December 31, 2022 by dealraker

[Kuhndan]

+ 2.9% largely thanks to BRK

[WayWardCloud]

-17.45%

Most of the losses came from entering the year with ~10+% positions in Alphabet and Charter and holding steady through the pain.

Additional losses on Chinese tech (Tencent, JD, Alibaba) somewhat mitigated by successful trading around.

 

I was genuinely surprised to learn I didn't underperform my index reference, VT -18.01%, after such a poor performance. I guess most other things got hammered about as bad as my picks.

 

Very impressed with everyone's returns here, thanks for sharing your thoughts throughout the year!

I feel like I have to change something. I'm about 70% passive and 30% active and considering going 90-95% passive and just 5-10% active via long term (2 years) options when/if I have a strong contrarian opinion on maybe one or two names. Right now those two would be Charter (because I'm a Malone masochist apparently) and General Motors (because I'm a self-driving nerd).

 

Happy New Year!

 

 

 

the first line is for the last two months of 2016 only, that's when I started investing in case you're wondering why just 2%. the first six lines are on a much smaller portfolio basis (starting with 15k up to a bit over a 140k thanks to savings from work). This year's returns however have applied to my first really meaningful portfolio thanks to an inheritance (now mid 6 figures) and I'm feeling the difference.

Edited January 1, 2023 by WayWardCloud

[gary17]

aoubt  negative 15%  this year !  Did extremely well with IBI (TSE:IBG) , FFH  while preserved capital with ATCO , CZO which  were significantly offset by my reinvestment of those gains into the tech sector.  Hopefully long term those bets will pay off!  

Thanks to everyone for sharing all the knowledge, etc.  I learned a lot this year & look forward to 2023.   Happy new year!

Edited January 1, 2023 by gary17

[ValueArb]

I didn't do as much research in 2022 as I did in 2021 due to work demands, which made me feel a bit of shame, but now that I've added everything up its passed.  I didn't do as poorly as I expected.

 

2022

My account: +10.3%

Client 1: +13.9%

Client 2: + 7.8%

 

Total gains since returning to value investing in Spring 2021:

My account: +33.3%

Client 1: +38.7%

Client 2: + 43.8%

 

Edit: And all of my gains were microcrap net-nets, outside of some oddities like ARKK puts. I did sell all of my BRK.B lately and committed myself to putting the funds into active research.

Edited January 1, 2023 by ValueArb
Was missing the what and how

[ValueArb]

8 hours ago, aws said:

+36% in my Roth, +31% in taxable

 

 

My biggest gain in the year was a truly unique situation, which I have never seen before and will never see again. It was UNTCW, which are warrants with about a 5 year duration, a 63.74 strike price, and started trading with a 60.00 underlying stock price. They were given out to the original shareholders after a bankruptcy, but were tied up for almost two years such that many owners might have totally forgot about them or had no idea what fair value was. And then they started trading randomly one day with no notice and no attempt by the company to make a market for them. They just started trading at a penny a piece despite the company recording them as a liability on the books at nearly $30 per. I bought more than half of the total trading volume for the first few days, and within a week they were $15 each so I had a massive multibagger, and that happened without any real move in the underlying shares.

 

Other impactful results came from the APTS buyout early this year where I owned a large amount of stock and calls, and from MARA puts and shorts which paid off nicely with that stock dropping 90% this year.

 

Mostly I just didn't have positions in any of the stuff that was down a lot on the year. My largest position is still Berkshire which is up YTD and which I increased a lot more in the 260-270s, and I didn't pickup things like Google and Meta until after the big crashes.

congratulations! I love stories like UNTCW. Just rewards for paying attention!

[Libs]

Took a solid drubbing. -16.6%. CASH, JOE, and HQI - big positions all- were down 20% +. I was fully invested when the downturn hit- d'oh. A tough year. International Petroleum (IPCO.TO) was the bright spot, up 100%.

 

Kudos to those who made money this year- well done.

[bizaro86]

3 hours ago, ValueArb said:

congratulations! I love stories like UNTCW. Just rewards for paying attention!

 

Indeed. I'm somewhat annoyed at myself for having missed it, as UNTC common was my largest position after the bankruptcy (and then by far my largest position as it outperformed). I knew those warrants were out there and checked for them occasionally - I should have been more systematic about monitoring for that.

[treasurehunt]

I was down just over 11% in 2022. My two biggest positions - Berkshire and Fairfax - did well, but not well enough to offset the carnage in the rest of my holdings. US banks, Chinese stocks like Baba and Tencent, and GOOG all dragged my performance down.

[aws]

1 hour ago, bizaro86 said:

 

Indeed. I'm somewhat annoyed at myself for having missed it, as UNTC common was my largest position after the bankruptcy (and then by far my largest position as it outperformed). I knew those warrants were out there and checked for them occasionally - I should have been more systematic about monitoring for that.

 

Luckily I had a 1000 share position (worth all of about $40) in the common right before the bankruptcy from a tracker position that I never closed. It was enough to put a few warrants in my account, so I saw immediately when they started trading. Very lucky indeed. Although it was a bit of a hassle to find a broker who would actually let me put an above market bid out there for the warrants. I felt bad taking them at pennies, but it took four phone calls before I even found a broker who would let me buy at the ask price.

[bizaro86]

3 minutes ago, aws said:

 

Luckily I had a 1000 share position (worth all of about $40) in the common right before the bankruptcy from a tracker position that I never closed. It was enough to put a few warrants in my account, so I saw immediately when they started trading. Very lucky indeed. Although it was a bit of a hassle to find a broker who would actually let me put an above market bid out there for the warrants. I felt bad taking them at pennies, but it took four phone calls before I even found a broker who would let me buy at the ask price.

 

This is getting OT for this thread, but did you have to fill out the paperwork to register your shares/not object to the plan in order to receive those warrants, or did they just appear?

[aws]

23 minutes ago, bizaro86 said:

 

This is getting OT for this thread, but did you have to fill out the paperwork to register your shares/not object to the plan in order to receive those warrants, or did they just appear?

 

I didn't do any paperwork. They were automatic and had been in my account for something like a year, they just weren't tradable until sometime in April.

[Charlie]

+ 4%. I have everything in Berkshire and did no work.  (in Euro it's more like + 8,5% and since I live in Europe I will take this number) 

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-berkshire-hathaway-stock-warren-buffett-51672341403?siteid=yhoof2

Edited January 1, 2023 by Charlie

[Parsad]

On 12/30/2022 at 8:31 PM, spartansaver said:

Could someone make this thread with the anonymous returns multiple choices (ex. 0-5%,5-10%, etc)?

 

Done.  You can answer in the poll now too.  Cheers!

[Lemsip]

Down 3.5% in GBP. Brk,Mkl and Unilever top performers with visa, mastercard not too bad. Alphabet and growth names ( Terry Smith type stocks) took a beating but overall happy to have survived 2022 with most of my capital intact. Feeling ok about next 3 years with a defensive portfolio which is cheaper across the board.

[kab60]

Returns have been easy to calculate in prior years, as I had only one active account. This time around, stocks were spread across 5 different accounts, some of which were partially liquidated throughout the year and moved around due to tax considerations and new job requirements. Main account (like 65% of NAV) was up around 15% before it was liquidated midyear. Pension account was up 47%. A couple of tax deferred accounts was 100% long British American Tobacco going into the year (winner) and swapped for 100% Twitter at $37 (big winner). Those were up like 65-75%, I think. Also opened a new regular account and stuffed it with International Petroleum in February, a couple of days before Putins' invasion of Ukraine. While another account was mostly in Swedish Match, which got taken out. Better lucky than good.

 

Not sure what the final tally is and can't really be bothered to do the work. But definitely a good deal north of 15%. A large part of the gain was attributed to a strong Dollar, as I live in Europe and invest quiet heavily in the US. I also had some decent relative winners in Berkshire (sold at 330), tobacco (Altria/BATS), Swedish Match, Twitter and International Petroleum.

 

Personal losers were Discovery (down >50%), Motorpoint PLC (same) as well as Facebook (bought around 200). Smaller positions and cut losses pretty quickly though, so missed the latest drawdowns and losses were manageable. But mostly I avoided carnage, as my biggest position, Asbury Automotive, held up pretty well throughout the year.

 

At least as importantly I figured the risk/reward of a lot of my holdings had worsened coming into 2022 after a strong couple of years with less attractive valuations, increasing inflation and clear messaging from the FED. I've read all there is to Howard Marks and studied Druckenmiller as good as I could, and all I took away as somewhat actionable was 'having an idea where we are in the cycle' and 'don't fight the FED'. It seemed like both were setting investors up for losses, so I went mostly on the defensive in late '21 and favored cheap and good companies that could cope or even thrive if inflation came to pass. I had some more speculative positions going into '22 (TIGO, AMRS), but quickly got rid of them as I felt uncomfortable holding anything without strong current cashflows and low valuations.

 

Not that anyone cares, but it'll be the last time I update my personal performance (as all my mental bandwidth as well as AUM will be focused in a fund). I started as a complete novice in 2015 and have been rather lucky throughout the years. But I've also learned a ton from helpful folks on this board as well as elsewhere, so hopefully a bit of skill has been involved as well.

 

2015	13
2016	45
2017	19
2018	-7
2019	23
2020	45
2021	65
2022	(north of 15%)

 

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by kab60

[Spekulatius]

Looks like I am down about 6%. Winners were buyout candidates (CSVI, SWMA, KNBE) and losers mostly tech and VNT and some small caps.

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, kab60 said:

... Not that anyone cares, but it'll be the last time I update my personal performance (as all my mental bandwidth as well as AUM will be focused in a fund). I started as a complete novice in 2015 and have been rather lucky throughout the years. But I've also learned a ton from helpful folks on this board as well as elsewhere, so hopefully a bit of skill has been involved as well. ...

 

@kab60,

 

Congrats on the returns over the years, and to me it reads as you have opened up a new shop managing money. If I haven't misunderstood your post, I wish you the best with the new endeavour of yours! 

[JGBRK]

Roth = +2.58%

Taxable = (7.52%)

[boilermaker75]

Surprisingly I'm up 0.01% because  it sure feels like I was down for the year. 

[changegonnacome]

Up about 15% across accounts……

 

Biggest losers -

 

Got killed by USD strength against GBP/EUR!

 

Then MSGE, GLV, CDLX……some I’ve held on to through the pain (MSGE/GLV) knowing the underlying intrinsic value & willing to accept the lower mark to market……..I could have traded them around & considered doing so once I developed my Fed/liquidity view but moving in and out of names on macro/liquidity has not worked well for me in the past too many opportunities for psychological misjudgment in the future, better to sit and hold what you know and own even if market is throwing dumb prices at you….…I expect to be rewarded for the pain in these two names in the future……....others like CDLX i sucked up and dumped once Fed got serious and luckily saved myself a shit load of pain later on if I hadn’t pulled the plaster off…..truth be told when I was buying CDLX I deep down knew it didn’t make sense given their marginal advertising positioning, cash burn etc.. Should listen to little voices more in the future!

 

Biggest winners -

 

- Hostelworld by a mile pretty much up 90%+ on my cost basis - got aggressive on dips on this name this year and broke some self-imposed portfolio concentration rules in the process….breaking those rules & getting aggressive paid off. I listened to the little voice on this one

- Bank of Ireland +69% - worked as I expected given interest rate environment 

- Various shorts, bearish options hedges, selling vol & merger arb……could have been more aggressive here of course and I would have had a 50%+ year……..but they were fundamentally always sized as hedges and for all my bearish talk on the “bottom” thread…….being positioned ultra ultra-bearish works 1 out of what every 10 years?…..this would have been one…..but making any real money on the short side is dangerous…..as you might be tempted to do it again and its usually the road to ruin over time!

 

Reflecting on my positioning & thinking about alternative outcomes to this year……..I think I got it about right in terms of a posture/positioning….….the alternative universe where everything say rallied in H2 2022 would have worked out better for me on a performance basis……..the fact it didn’t and I still did acceptably well on a full year basis feels like I got the balance about right and wasn’t too skewed to any particular binary outcome.

[JRM]

+2.9%

 

very concentrated in energy, minerals, metals, and pipelines

[flesh]

+10 personal +9 ira's. Sold puts on brk, owned a little frfhf. Bought some leaps/shares on brk twice around 270/share and sold quick.