Libs

Good OP. I've tracked my performance vs the S & P for 25 years. Then it dawned upon me it doesn't matter. If you need 8% returns to make your goals, go for it, and make it as safely as you can. Who cares what every one else is doing?

Messi - 5 ARG goals in two games - all from Messi. At 38! I have fallen in love with soccer in the last few years.

Sorry, not directed at you.

I've long been fascinated by rich people who throw their life away in search of money they don't need. Insider trading, theft, etc. I can somewhat understand holding up a bank if you're broke. But this kind of stuff....?

Great post. I've lived in both worlds- work for Chubb from '85-99, then as an FA from '99- now. There are definitely parallels.

You bottom-ticked a 56% decline. Well played brother

It's already happening. Iran's leverage will not last forever- Gemini: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have aggressively rerouted and expedited alternative pipeline exports to bypass the restricted Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has maxed out its East-West Pipeline to redirect millions of barrels daily to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, while the UAE is utilizing and accelerating pipelines to the Gulf of Oman port of Fujairah. [1, 2] Details on how the countries are currently shipping their oil include: Saudi Arabia: Rerouted its East-West pipeline to run at full capacity (roughly 7 million barrels a day), shipping crude and aviation fuel out of the Red Sea directly to Europe and the West. [1, 2] The United Arab Emirates: Increased usage of the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) to send crude to Fujairah for export, completely outside the Persian Gulf. Abu Dhabi is fast-tracking a second major pipeline to double this bypass capacity by 2027. [1, 2] Ship-to-Ship (STS) Transfers: State firms like ADNOC and Aramco have utilized transshipment hubs, moving some tankers through or just outside the strait in the dark trade to offload to other vessels. [1, 2, 3] Oman Storage: The UAE has moved and stored crude at alternative facilities like Ras Markaz in Oman, allowing buyers to load oil without traversing the traditional Hormuz route. [1] Despite these workarounds, the global energy map is permanently shifting, as Gulf states increasingly view avoiding the Strait of Hormuz as a permanent necessity for energy security rather than a temporary fix.

You would sign up to fight for this regime? Hopefully I misunderstand.

As if they aren't losing enough money!

gfp, How much would you be willing to pay? I'm trying to figure out if users will ever cough up enough to cover Anthropic's (et al) costs....

Not sure I get the logic. Software co X sells mission-critical, deeply embedded software to company Y. X uses seat - based pricing, totaling say $10,000 a year. Company Y lays off 20% of their employees due to efficiencies gained from AI. But they still need and value X's software. Company X simply switches to a flat $10,000 fee instead of seat-based. Maybe I'm missing something; I don't see the problem.

I found this humorous. Not sure how accurate it is. https://isaiprofitable.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Terravest

Impressive. BRK now the #4 homebuilder in the U.S.

gfp my friend...... It's possible I hate money, because Visser has made some great calls and I've missed every one of them. (BTW he also had a solid insight in last week's clip about using 200-day averages as a buying / selling signal. I'm going to look into that. He basically showed how much of the market collapses you could have avoided simply by using that tool and acting accordingly.) I have a more narrow question for you (or anyone) that pertains to the AI bubble (if it is one). It has been said that AI bears simply don't use LLM models, and thus 'don't get it.' I know you are fully engaged in using LLM's and vouch for them. Ditto Visser. But here's the rub. When I ask enthusiasts of Claude / Gemini Open AI etc. how much they are paying, it's always "zero" or "$20 a month." And when I ask how much more they would pay, I get a blank stare or 'nothing.' So how does this ecosystem continue when the product is being sold at a fraction of the cost? Here's a tl/dr: https://ea.rna.nl/2026/06/07/anthropic-openai-may-be-spending-more-than-1000-for-every-100-you-pay-them/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email And how much would you be willing to pay for Claude or whatever you use (this is an open question to all). I still say this all ends in tears, in terms of AI - related stocks. Just like every technological / industrial revolution (from an investing standpoint).