treasurehunt

Started a position in INTU. Also sold a couple of OTM INTU puts. Added to FOUR.

Closed out my position in CROX. This ended up being a nicely profitable trade, but I realized that branded retail is not my game.

Bought more ADYEY and now have a fullish position. Started a position in FOUR. The payments space has been decimated, but I'm not really sure these two are the best choices in the space. I may go with a basket approach.

According to ASML's annual report, the top four customers account for 61.2% of total net sales. Sounds pretty interdependent to me.

Yes, I have the same impression. If there is tremendous demand for something for the next few years, surely that's an incentive for competition to show up? This is tech, after all. I suppose some of these companies have advantages that cannot be competed away easily, but I don't see much analysis of this.

ASML seems to be trading at a P/E of almost 60, so they'll have to sell all the machines they can make for a decade or two or three to justify the valuation. Doesn't that require a lot of confidence in the long-term competitive advantages of the business? How are you thinking about it?

I was around then but new to the markets, having started investing in stocks in 1998. But it's a little too simplistic to say that "literally anything not related to tech was left for dead". Retailers like WMT and HD, pharma companies like PFE and MRK, consumer companies like KO and PG, some financials like AXP and GS were all trading at very high valuations. I do remember all the genius 401k millionaires and maybe today's mania hasn't quite reached that level of craziness yet.

Maybe it is included in Sales, Marketing & Partnership Costs. But I'd guess that the operating income vanishes if we look too closely. Still, Anthropic appears to be headed towards profitability.

Anthropic is expecting $10.9B in revenue and over $500M in operating profit in Q2 26. Stunning numbers!

I see a sale of around 1.82 million shares of OXY for $97.7 million, which works out to a bit under $54 per share. What does this $3.74 refer to?

Added to FRFHF at $1596 Added to TCEHY at $59

Sold the last of my TSLA. I was keeping it around as a rank speculation, but with good companies at reasonable valuations now, I didn't want it in my portfolio any longer. Spent the proceeds buying more ADYEY, CNSWF and CPNG.

Berkshire sold $24B of equities in the quarter, and bought $15.9B. That's a lot of activity! I assume the sales are from Todd Combs' portfolio; do we know yet what they might have bought?

Looking at Fairfax's quarterly filings, it seems average diluted shares increased by about 4% from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. Why? I don't recall a transaction where Fairfax issued shares. Or am I missing something obvious? Net Earnings to Shareholders Diluted EPS Average Diluted Shares Q1 2026 $695.70 $31.11 22.36 Q4 2025 $1,238.30 $57.57 21.51 Q3 2025 $1,151.70 $52.04 22.13

According to the AGM presentation, duration was 2.1 years as of Dec 31, 2025. So average maturity was probably less than 3 years, even accounting for duration being less than average maturity, right?

Yes, I agree. Living in San Diego is a constant reminder of unreasonably high home prices.

Don't disagree with your point, but this chart shows real house prices and not nominal. I doubt many homeowners care about inflation-adjusted prices. The chart of nominal prices isn't pretty either, but not nearly as bad.

UAE to exit OPEC on May 1: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/uae-opec-oil-iran.html I think this should put some downward pressure on oil prices long term. It seems the UAE wants to increase production from the current 3.5 million barrels per day to 5 million.

So Mythos is more of an incremental advance in capability and not a drastic improvement, in your view? Interesting. And thanks for the book recommendation; I'll try and check it out.

Did you read the paper on Mythos from the red team at Anthropic? I think someone had posted the link earlier, but here it is if you want to take a look: https://red.anthropic.com/2026/mythos-preview/ Seems like more than a bit of marketing to me.

Yes, perhaps the government is trying to get the shares to trade at a relatively low price for long enough that there is a good chance of a qualifying bid, and then the sale can go through.

Yeah, Tencent is down some 10% after reporting Q4 earnings, which I thought were just fine. I bought some more Prosus as well.

Buying a lot of shares under book would actually increase book value per share.

Liked this from page 30 of the letter: "In our non-insurance investments and businesses, we find that we have often emphasized cheapness at the expense of quality and suffered often from promotional founders/CEOs who were ineffective managers. We are very much guarding against these mistakes in the future."

Also, TxInvestor's comparison ignores dividends. That should be another percentage point or more in Fairfax's favor.