frommi

Whats your target price for SOXX in the next 3 months? These options look very expensive to me.

In the past few days i am thinking about how the digital euro (not wero) will change payments in europe and i can't see how MA&V +european banks aren't the losers of this. Why is this not priced into these companies today? Every merchant will try to get customers with bonus systems to switch over like it worked in Brazil and India and every merchant+bank will be forced to use/offer it. The merchant payment processors doesn't seem to be impacted because they can still earn their fees. Just Ayden will lose its interchange fee because it is also the bank, so overall i think that Ayden will probably lose the most of all the merchant payment processors in europe because for a merchant than the fees aren't material different to other payment processors?

No, i dont think thats likely. But its still cheap and the EPS will expand this year because the USD weakness has hidden some of the operational power (25% operating income growth this year). And 10-20% growth with a 3.4% dividend yield is always nice to have. Theres a thread about it.

more Adobe.

It is the largest component of IGV and i believe the whole ETF is shorted regardless of whats in it or at what valuation the stocks are, to buy more semi stocks. That trade will implode sooner or later.

Sold MDLZ,NOMD, DOM. I want to lean more into high growth stocks with great balance sheet and really great businesses in the future.

more Karelia Tobacco.

Looks like it was delayed to next week

Yes its liquid. Option strikes closer to the current price have a higher delta so they move less on volatity and more on the real price of the underlying. If you chose an option strike far out of the money, say 300$ in this example when vola is high like today for Adobe they are more expensive, so its quite possible that the stock moves up, but the option price doesnt move at all because volatility moves down. Thats why i typically chose ATM options. But when vola is very low it can make sense to go further out on the strike.

Just to try it again. We are ready in the SPY to move down another 40 points.

bought some Adobe Leap Calls 2028, 220 strike.

No, because it has no "real" intelligence. To me this is fake or simulated intelligence. But that doesn't mean it can't produce working software. This article is spot on: https://geohot.github.io/blog/jekyll/update/2026/05/24/the-eternal-sloptember.html

Its still faster than writing it by hand. Especially for test code its really good, because the quality is not that important.

Whoever still doesn't believe me

If you hear loud music all the time maybe you should relocate?

How do you know its the top? Speaking of downside protection at a P/E of 60 in a business where sales can easily drop 30%+ is a stretch.

You don't get paid for how hard your work is in this world, just the scarcity of your abilities. And good investing is very rare in this world, so it gets paid a lot. Its just that the outcome is hard to measure in investment a priori and thats why it looks like some have not earned their share. Sitting on your ass doing nothing is also sometimes very hard.

Just to underpin what i wrote, this is rent cost for NVDA chips: The decline started exactly when MSFT introduced its new token based pricing model for Copilot.

Since this is about technical analysis, lets see if this author is correct in that the bull market from 2009 has ended. He has btw. counted this since 2 or 3 years up to the top and called the top nearly to the day, even though the language let some interpretation open. Source: https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/

Just because the companies now offer additional pricing makes them obsolete? The whole universe of AI will soon realize that customers hate token based pricing. For the software vendors that offer this, it doesn't matter since for them its a pass-through cost. But they will not let their AI-bill for their coding agents go rampant. See Uber. Long term this pricing tier will vanish, like it vanished in mobile data usage. And customers will try to reduce this cost increase by using free models. They didn't have to because models where subsidized, but now it will happen. (and is already as 30%+ of AI traffic is already these free models) Model Name Type Blended Cost (Per 1M Tokens) June 2026 Standing / Core Niche GPT-5.5 (OpenAI) Frontier (Closed) ~$11.25 The Autonomy SOTA. The absolute gold standard for multi-step DevOps, complex infrastructure engineering, and terminal agent tasks. Claude Opus 4.8 (Anthropic) Frontier (Closed) ~$10.00 The Academic Leader. Unrivaled at deep, PhD-level multidisciplinary reasoning and complex codebase architecture. GPT-5.4 Mini (OpenAI) Frontier (Closed) ~$1.68 The Commercial Standard. Built to serve massive enterprise web pipelines that require closed-loop data security. DeepSeek-V4-Pro Open / Free Tier ~$0.90* The Long-Context Disrupter. Offers a massive 1-million-token context window and performance that lags behind the frontier by only a few months. Qwen 3.5 (397B) (Alibaba) Open / Free Tier ~$0.75* The Global Enterprise Workhorse. The most downloaded open model on Hugging Face; unbeatable multilingual support. Kimi K2.6 (Moonshot AI) Open / Free Tier ~$0.60* The Math/Logic Challenger. Top open-weights score for advanced STEM deduction and code auditing. Gemma 4 (12B/31B) (Google) Open / Free Tier ~$0.12* The On-Device King. Entirely encoder-free multimodal architecture optimized to run for $0 locally on basic 16GB laptops.

Have fun coding with Claude or Codex agents. When they install packages you never know what happens . This is like Covid for coding agents.

The question is not if they make money, anybody can see that. The question is if they make at least the same or more money 5-10 years down the road. At the top of the cycle you can buy semis for P/E's of 1 or 2, but thats usually a trap.

FOMO?

You are not alone.

These banks must get big fees, i also get spammed a lot.