frommi

Yes, but only half of the story is written and only interest income is fixed for 4 years. What if insurance goes into a soft market now that every insurance company can get higher rates? And what if interest rates are much lower in 4 years, dont you think the market will anticipate that? Its all rosy now. I bought @ 0.5x bv and thought that around 1-1.1 is a good target (because that is where FFH was priced for a very long period of time), so at the moment the next year of income is also priced in at 1.2 x bv. If you are a long term holder just ignore me and stay the course .

Sold FFH after my thesis has played out and the stock has re-rated. Don't like betting on further multiple expansion.

Thats a very good idea, i track my dividend income in a similar sheet since 5 or 6 years and it is a great motivation. Tracking earnings is probably even better , i think i will add that to my sheet. Thanks!

Its a little bit funny, the article is from 2016 and since then the staples sector has underperformed by a lot. Maybe past performance is a poor indicator?

In my view a "moat" is something that protects the relationship with your customers. Insurance is a price competitive business and i doubt you can really have a moat here. If someone comes in and insures your belongings for nothing, you would switch in an instant. Of course right now nobody does it, but its just to illustrate that there is no moat. Coca Cola has the taste and coffein in it as a moat. If you like the taste of coca cola, you will never switch if the taste of the other drink doesn't come very very close to it or you like the other drink more. And the coffein lets you crave it, its an addictive drug. FFH right now are two businesses, the insurance and the asset manager. The asset manager also can't really have a moat and as they grow bigger they will not get better results than the market. Maybe sometime they will win big (like the duration decision), but sometimes they won't (like the shorting fiasco). I really doubt that they will not make mistakes again in some other form. Especially at their size its already really hard to add alpha forever. So also no moat here. BRK trades a higher multiples of book because they have operating businesses like the railroads, that itself have moats. (because rails in the US are limited for example, or the taste of see's candies). But this is just my opinion. (if there is a moat in insurance, it most come from lower costs, but why shouldn't this be reconstructable by someone else?)

Sold half of my FFH position and bought boring Apartment REIT's, AVB, MAA, NXRT and a canadian utility CPX:CA. FFH position just got too big part of the portfolio (35%). Still think FFH is a good value, but not as good as 3 years ago.

Sold some MO and bought more STG, they will buy back 10% of their stock in the next year.

Sold DAX Puts and bought MED, Evolution AB and DCC PLC.

Sold out of Karelia Tobacco. Share price has gone up while the earnings have declined, so this was not a hard decision and i have better opportunities right now.

Bought some more, 6% position now.

Scandinavian Tobacco Group. 4% Position.

30$ BTI 2025 Calls. Pretty much doubled my already outsized BTI position with these calls. Nominal value is around 35% of my portfolio now. Final Menthol proposal should come any day now and i expect a relief rally following this, but can be completly wrong here.

If people would approach cars economically no one would drive big pickups and everyone would drive along in 5-10 year old Toyotas. Reality looks quite different. Whats also really missing here is that your own car gives you the freedom to drive whereever whenever you like. Need that one thing that your wife needs for cooking asap? Have fun finding a ready autonomous car that picks you up in 60 seconds stays at the store for 10 minutes and brings you back . This freedom is probably the reason car ownership is so high right now.

Maybe, it depends on the company doing the audits. In my company we have two separate entities doing this stuff and the pure cost for the "Jahresabschluss" are around 3k and there is nothing in there that you can do yourself. I think this cost depends on the asset base or revenue for the year.

You have around 3-5k fixed annual expenses for running a gmbh which makes it only feasable for large accounts. And transferring assets to the GmbH itself triggers a sell event so you have to pay taxes. So when you are small its too expensive, when you are large you better only do it if you dont have unrealized gains. And it is possible that when you need the money you pay a lot more than 25%.

I am 70% sure that short term interest rates have peaked (for the next 2-3 years), because that is the probability for a recession in the next 12 months right now according to my indicators. And you see it already in the inflation data, its coming down m/m. I am pretty sure some time in the future the deflation ghosts will come back and the FED will cut interest rates in panic. The bond market is telling that (yield curve) and its hard to believe the bond market is wrong, because it rarely is.

150$ TSLA puts DEC23.

bought more BTI and made it the second largest position (14%) after FFH (27%). Tobacco now at 40% of my portfolio.

more FFH

bought some CVS

@RedLion Yes, good idea. My problem is that this has tax implications because you take a huge loss on one leg. Germany is a weird land when it comes to taxes on capital gains and you can only deduct a fixed sum of option losses. Finalized my longer term put positions (dec23) on DAX,MDAX and SPY, which now make up 6% of my portfolio. Should be enough to protect against a large drop. Also bought more BATS.

Started selling some Posco after it popped 100% from the lows 6 month ago.

More Puts on DAX,MDAX,S&P500. Pretty close to 5% of portfolio value now, i think i maybe increase it to 6% this week, but that should be enough to protect my portfolio against a larger drop in the indices for the summer. And yes i do this since 2014, buy dec puts over summer, because on average every 5.-6. summer we get a 20% drop. Last time it worked was in 2015, so the market is ripe for it.

Whats the moat here? In 5 years a lot of companies will have these type of language models, but it requires a lot of capital to run because computing hours are expensive. Maybe shorting some companies is successful as an approach, but its a low return endeavour and very dangerous. I doubt that GOOG or MSFT will ever really make money of it. But of course when first playing around with it i was fascinated, too.

BTI,PM,MO,IMB,Karelia Tobacco