Libs

Parsad you seem like a gentle soul; it's jarring to hear this from you ( or Trump, or anyone). We shouldn't celebrate this.

We have a saying around my house, muttered under your breath, in a Bronx accent: " This F-ing guy." That's Visser to me. Because he's making me question some long-held beliefs (formed by spotting past bubbles), which is painful. From this clip, starting around 18:00, with a good graphic at 18:40: Digital demand for tokens can, and will, scale massively; especially as token prices drop. It's also a fact that computer-driven demand can always scale faster than physical supply can grow. Fabs take 2-3 years to build. Token demand is 10X-ing in short order. An eye-opener for me was hearing a dozen guys, 40-70 Y.O., in my men's group, gush about how much they use and love AI. Not a Luddite in the crowd. No complaining about hallucinations. AI is not a bubble. I'm finally getting that though my thick head. Plenty of participants will indeed go bust, but the Samsungs, MU's, NVDA's could still have a long way to run from here. All dependent on the theme that token usage continues to explode. Later in the episode is a good piece about the acceleration that will take place once we can easily use AI on our phones. So, God help me, I'm considering the likes of MU and Samsung AFTER they've gone through the roof. What's the argument against this theory- 1) token demand will explode 2) physical supply to support it will take years 3) memory prices will thus continue to rise faster and stay elevated longer than the market is pricing in.

Me too. Flat YTD. CSU, FFH, Terravest dragging me down. Also bought AJG and BRO too early. These things happen......I'm not worried.

Bingo. This is the whole game.

Great quote from a great player! I'd not heard that one....

Wife is from Iran, came over in '79 after the revolution. We were rooting hard for them......and they were 92% likely to make the final 32 yesterday morning. Now they are out, thanks to the Algeria - Austria tie (both of whom advanced). Argh! Iran- who went undefeated - somehow is one of the 16 bounced?

More TSLX below NAV.

To our friends on the Democrat side of the aisle, how do you see - in light of Mamdani running the table in NY last night - the rise of the DSA and their attempted takeover of the party? Seems like it is happening. This is the mirror image of MAGA's takeover of the GOP. I never would have predicted that either.

Good OP. I've tracked my performance vs the S & P for 25 years. Then it dawned upon me it doesn't matter. If you need 8% returns to make your goals, go for it, and make it as safely as you can. Who cares what every one else is doing?

Messi - 5 ARG goals in two games - all from Messi. At 38! I have fallen in love with soccer in the last few years.

Sorry, not directed at you.

I've long been fascinated by rich people who throw their life away in search of money they don't need. Insider trading, theft, etc. I can somewhat understand holding up a bank if you're broke. But this kind of stuff....?

Great post. I've lived in both worlds- work for Chubb from '85-99, then as an FA from '99- now. There are definitely parallels.

You bottom-ticked a 56% decline. Well played brother

It's already happening. Iran's leverage will not last forever- Gemini: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have aggressively rerouted and expedited alternative pipeline exports to bypass the restricted Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has maxed out its East-West Pipeline to redirect millions of barrels daily to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, while the UAE is utilizing and accelerating pipelines to the Gulf of Oman port of Fujairah. [1, 2] Details on how the countries are currently shipping their oil include: Saudi Arabia: Rerouted its East-West pipeline to run at full capacity (roughly 7 million barrels a day), shipping crude and aviation fuel out of the Red Sea directly to Europe and the West. [1, 2] The United Arab Emirates: Increased usage of the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) to send crude to Fujairah for export, completely outside the Persian Gulf. Abu Dhabi is fast-tracking a second major pipeline to double this bypass capacity by 2027. [1, 2] Ship-to-Ship (STS) Transfers: State firms like ADNOC and Aramco have utilized transshipment hubs, moving some tankers through or just outside the strait in the dark trade to offload to other vessels. [1, 2, 3] Oman Storage: The UAE has moved and stored crude at alternative facilities like Ras Markaz in Oman, allowing buyers to load oil without traversing the traditional Hormuz route. [1] Despite these workarounds, the global energy map is permanently shifting, as Gulf states increasingly view avoiding the Strait of Hormuz as a permanent necessity for energy security rather than a temporary fix.

You would sign up to fight for this regime? Hopefully I misunderstand.

As if they aren't losing enough money!

gfp, How much would you be willing to pay? I'm trying to figure out if users will ever cough up enough to cover Anthropic's (et al) costs....

Not sure I get the logic. Software co X sells mission-critical, deeply embedded software to company Y. X uses seat - based pricing, totaling say $10,000 a year. Company Y lays off 20% of their employees due to efficiencies gained from AI. But they still need and value X's software. Company X simply switches to a flat $10,000 fee instead of seat-based. Maybe I'm missing something; I don't see the problem.

I found this humorous. Not sure how accurate it is. https://isaiprofitable.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Terravest

Impressive. BRK now the #4 homebuilder in the U.S.

gfp my friend...... It's possible I hate money, because Visser has made some great calls and I've missed every one of them. (BTW he also had a solid insight in last week's clip about using 200-day averages as a buying / selling signal. I'm going to look into that. He basically showed how much of the market collapses you could have avoided simply by using that tool and acting accordingly.) I have a more narrow question for you (or anyone) that pertains to the AI bubble (if it is one). It has been said that AI bears simply don't use LLM models, and thus 'don't get it.' I know you are fully engaged in using LLM's and vouch for them. Ditto Visser. But here's the rub. When I ask enthusiasts of Claude / Gemini Open AI etc. how much they are paying, it's always "zero" or "$20 a month." And when I ask how much more they would pay, I get a blank stare or 'nothing.' So how does this ecosystem continue when the product is being sold at a fraction of the cost? Here's a tl/dr: https://ea.rna.nl/2026/06/07/anthropic-openai-may-be-spending-more-than-1000-for-every-100-you-pay-them/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email And how much would you be willing to pay for Claude or whatever you use (this is an open question to all). I still say this all ends in tears, in terms of AI - related stocks. Just like every technological / industrial revolution (from an investing standpoint).

Another mind-blowing chart. Mind you, it doesn't mean 51% of the stocks, it should say 'of the weighting'. Still...

And this is BEFORE adding the 3 giant IPO's in the pipeline. What will that number be, 50%? We are in a bubble. But so what? Just sidestep the AI crap with the COBF ETF. If it drops, buy more (if you can). But I have a hunch it will be more like 2000 - Nasdaq down massively, while value stocks rallied and crushed the market.