flesh

Just skimmed this last page... isnt ibkr paying me 4.82 on cash right now? Simple?

The orville was good, especially season three. Also the new star trek with captain pike is good. The three body problem an award winning trilogy written by a chinese guy is coming to netflix soon, although I have little hope of their ability to bring it to the screen. I've read the foundation series by asimov and the apple tv version literally leaves out the most interesting parts.

My buddy and I have talked about this forever... for us in Utah it's 2m and a home paid for. We assume 5-10% returns annually on the 2m although weve both done better since the gfc unsurprisingly. If you have no debt and 100-200k in income, I really don't get what more you're looking for. Personally, I can't even think of anything I care about buying that I don't have. I have trimmed costs strategically by figuring out what I actually care about. I did experience spending 2-300k/year for a few years so I know I don't care about that. Alot of it was wasted on dumb clothes, unhealthy dinners, lame vacations, new cars, undesirable women, all of a lifestyle I give zero F#$%% about now. I guess my ideal is much more realistic to achieve and nobody would think of it as rich. The books I won't read and the interesting things I won't learn/see/experience are a much larger problem than whether I have 2m or 20m. That said, alot of us will end up rich, 10m, some of us are there no doubt... it's inevitable.

It doesn't take much to have a Moral north star. If you can grant me that it's better to eat steak than to have your arm repeatedly broken every day for your entire life. This combined with an evolved psychology is all we need to get there. Using a genes eye view looking to replicate itself. My genes want to replicate themselves, my kin share some of my gene's so my genes want them to replicate as well and so on decreasingly through those that share my genes. Therefore it is good that my genes don't die and that they replicate. My instinct/morality is to ensure that happens to varying degrees depending on the degree of relatedness. Also, to some degree, at the group level/multi level, those that are better at cooperating and planning for the future outperform those who aren't so they are selected for. This could be RichardGibbons metal balls/laws/norms/incentive constraint disincentive systems incrementally tweaked over time. It's at this level that rkkabang is claiming his law principal of non agression or non coercion applies. I could go on but I think this gets us there. 1. It's better to have your arm broken than to be skinned alive. We could run tests and ask people their pain level to confirm. We could measure their bodily reactions as well. Heart rate, blood pressure, adrenalin, fmri's,whether or not they asked you to kill them and get it over with. etc. Is it subjective if all evidence points towards being skinned alive is worse than getting your arm broken? From all known perspectives? 2. Genes want to replicate themselves and you share genes with those related to you. Those people who help your genes/kins genes replicate are also valuable to a lesser degree. Is this subjective thought/reasons? Do you choose your sex drive subjectively at all times throughout your entire life? Is it subjective that women are more likely to choose symmetric and large men, costly energetically, and therefore unconscious evidence of good genes when they ovulate, but don't care when they aren't ovulating? We need laws norms that align with 1 and 2 in order to get the most out of us.

There's a huge difference to the person dying how they die. Getting shot and bleeding out in a few minutes vs what happens in martyrs is night and day. I'd kill myself and my son if the alternative was that one of us had to be a martyr. The reason they are martyred while somewhat interesting actually makes the whole idea/movie worse... because now the most evil imaginable... way beyond the holocaust and similar... has been presented with a seemingly interesting worthy reason to do it.

I highly recommend nobody watches this. There's scenes from this movie.... I saw it shortly after it's release to dvd renting it from blockbusters... that can't forget but I'd like to. It's truly shockingly evil. Something like Hostel is similar but because it's less seemingly real... it doesn't move you like this one. On the other hand if you want to test your ability to remain detached from your visceral innate responses... you could try it with this is front of your face. One of the problems with media like this is that I can't help but believe that these shows provide a recipe for some of the most deranged in the world and I really don't think they need any new ideas. I wish we could stop making templates for the most unimaginable evils. If you are still curious and thinking you'll try it, don't read anything about it just watch it. Knowing the twists beforehand ruins it. Dont read synopses or watch trailers.

Work another year or two and save like crazy, or three if necessary. Be in a position you can cover your bills and have your liquidity grow assuming moderate returns before you quit. It can be hard to go back to skilled work. Industry changes and you change. It's difficult to see what it took to get to a high paying job because some of it was probably luck that your not aware of. I was in a industry that paid me well for 10 years, took 5 years off, came back for 1.5 years with a difficult learning curve, left when a kid came.... now it's gone and there's nothing else I know how to do that pays six figures working 20 hours a week. The older you get the more difficult it is to grind it out. Do it now not later. Personally, I became a better investor incrementally as my psychology changed as a result of my portfolio growth. You should never be in a position where you need returns this year. You should be in a position of abundance ideally.

Fun for me = Rock climbing (since 97'), dirt biking/enduro (since 2016, best old man sport), reading, I haven't cried a single tear since a 9 year relationship ended in 2018 until last night reading Ordinary men. Also reading The handbook of evolutionary psychology david buss edited now, will take awhile. If you like Kahneman, taleb, pinker, the confines of what it means to be human etc take a look. Playing around with diet, bulletproof as of now/ sometimes keto. 2 Year old son is getting more and more fun, getting sick from him isn't.

I love all his books. I'm buying them all to read (used audible) so I can l have them in the inheritance collection for my son.

+10 personal +9 ira's. Sold puts on brk, owned a little frfhf. Bought some leaps/shares on brk twice around 270/share and sold quick.

Up 4% ytd. Have been 100% invested in either sold puts, shares, or leaps throughout. 12% margin for a few weeks twice. Zero margin now. All leaps sold. Max draw down was -9%. Down 1.5% from high. Still some pain though as I live off my gains and I haven't yet covered my costs for the year. Hoping for some raw sell offs but not for lasting economic damage lol.

It IS riskier with more debt as a % of gdp though, correct? There are many scenarios where the article your responding to could happen to varying degrees, correct? Inflation could come down faster than rates because rates can't always be zero or else there's less room to stimulate. I never have understood your argument, I mean if your above inputs remain constant I get it, but why would they remain constant? If inflation comes down rates will likely come down but how much? Afaik, anything is possible, even probable, and there are tipping points/non linearities embedded in everything, no? Isn't there already enough precedence? I just can't wrap my head around this MMT/MMT directional stuff, why add blow up risk to a game that's working so wonderfully? We can print/tax but there's limits/trade offs. Looking to understand not to battle. What I believe I know has been widdled down to almost nothing generally speaking.

Against the gods, plus one on taleb books and superforecasting and kahneman. Between all those you should be securely feeling insecure about whether your presumed knowledge is actually belief. Or if maybe everything is.

Prediction, when we lap the first 8+ inflation print, march 23'. The market will recover.... no later than that, maybe sooner.

It doesn't matter. Why? Because brk almost always sells at a lower multiple. You more frequently and more non correlatively have an opportunity to buy it when it is at a significantly lower multiple. That is the main difference. Therefore, they already "earn" more. This is "why" it's easy. As an aside, absent catastrophe at a major pillar, they are more predictable.

It sounds like the only thing you have high confidence in atm is brk, isn't brk 5-10 companies? Why not go all in on it? No honestly, what's the diff? Munger once talked about how if you're some guy in some town usa and you own the car dealership, the re brokerage, the gas station, the hotel whatever it was.... and they were all profitable, would you spend you time worrying about being diversified? Brk is a concentrated index with special properties, you can argue for via negativa or positiva but the principal is the same. It is actually this simple if you can accept that it can be this easy. It's probably fair to disclose that I've read all the books and all the books about all the recessions. It's also probably fair to frame this by considering that one of you asked for how to get over this fear.

You've got to get it through your head that the risk is actually greater by not investing than by investing. If you do the math... the only time you shouldn't be invested is when you can't find anything worth the DCF to invest in compared to everything else. There's always something to do. In 2019 I couldn't find any stocks I liked.... I told my neighbor if he ever wanted to sell his house I"d pay full value, no realtors fees, just get an appraisal. After a few months he said yes. It's literally right next door, easy peasy. It has two separate units with all amenities so they can be rented separately... with a 20% down payment and a 3% mortgage it cash flows 1500/month positive and ofc we've seen what happened with re prices since, but that was luck. If you like brk, why not go all in at 270 lately? If you're really scared buy some 220 puts at whatever expiration. Would it really be so bad if it went to 240 and your cost was 270? Isn't it worse if you don't buy it and it's at 350 1-2 years from now? Even if it went to 240 couldn't you sell some shares at a loss and buy some 2 year calls or use a little margin? Buy some puts at 200 when you swap at 240? There's always something to do. I recently went all in.... and I told my partner to let me know if brk is at 250 or 300 so that I don't have to look of feel anything. There's nothing for me to do for now. Now I'm back to more important things like reading great books and spending time with my kid/travelling/hobbies. We are so fortunate to have so many amazing companies to invest in intermittently at good prices it's ridiculous relative to history. The democratization of enterprise was one of the best innovations ever and you get to benefit! The bottom line is, if you own 5-10 plus companies in diff industries the only way you fail is if USA fails and if that happens, we're all fucked.

I didnt read the replies but i'd say yes it's obvious. Just take the paredo (pareto?) principle or 80/20 rule combined with the fact that we reward productivity with money. On average, the wealthier you are the more you contributed and therefore should be of more value to society. I doubt there's any other one metric that would be better to derive value for society in our society. There's probably some interesting aspects to the curve though. If you think of it in income deciles it's pretty obvious. If you slice it further it might get funky. From a societal benefit perspective, if you had to eliminate one decile of the population measuring income/wealth, which would you eliminate first/last? ofc there's exceptions blah blah. At a personal level, it's silly to think of yourself this way, luck, ovarian lottery, ego, pride. I've been in Spain for a month now and I guarantee there's all sorts of smarter/more productive people all around me who never come close to my financial standing. How many of us would have discovered stocks in a country where the ibex was top of mind? How many of us are aware of any investment that's returned what the ibex has returned in our life time?

"a single mother needs to make $150K per annum before she makes more money working rather than sitting on welfare" Elaborate, this is news/surprising to me.

If it's a problem, we will selectively allow more immigrants. Poor places get poorer from brain drain. It could get worse though considering 20% of gen z identifies are various genders that aren't as likely to produce offspring.

Nice, I usually (in my head) just take the stock port of 330 b divided by the s and p pe , currently 21.... gets you close to same number. Also either take some of the cash off mkt cap or add a few percent earnings for the cash. 100b=3b etc. At least comparatively this works as the sandp has little cash.

Yep, there's a half dozen. Listening to Marxism now.

Great book about the fed/Jerome Powell and what's happened since covid. I think its a Ted or Todd reco Takeaways, 1. Jerome will be more aggressive that I previously believed with inflation. 2. He believes compared to previous fed chairs that projecting strongly causes reflexivity to a great degree. He will move faster and project stronger that what we are accustomed to in both directions. Aside from that it's pretty interesting in general.

When someone with some balls/the emotionality of the moment allows a retrogressive analysis, all the deaths resulting from shut downs should be counted against those saved by shutting down. All excess suicides, drug od's, starvation (death and life years lost from malnutrition for however long), all medical procedures that weren't done, murders, plus what I'm not considering atm. These ramifications will be felt for years and for 5-10 years all the excess deaths worldwide (not just USA, major economies effect the world) should be counted. Also, some weight should be given to education lost/mental disorders etc. I've been saying since 3-2020 to deaf ears, I guarantee life years lost will be greater than those saved and perhaps even lives lost vs saved. When the Italian data came out and the average age of death was 78 with 2.5 comorbidities (numbers might not be exactly right) beginning of march 2020.... we should have done whatever it takes to protect the old/weak and nothing else. In this case I'm totally confident total deaths would have been reduced. I really hope someone does this work so we don't do it again.

Cool. Thanks broseph. Those are on audible or podcasts? Finished as a man thinketh, very good, 1903. People don't change.