flesh

I spoke with 1000’s of “anecdotes” over 14 years, probed them meaningfully, in a context where they had no need to lie. MANY are full of shit. it’s not complicated, how many low income people are there and or with shitty low paying jobs that would prefer to get near the same money and not work? Next the only limiting factor is whatever the hoops are or lack thereof to jump through= a program growing faster than population plus inflation combined like all the others= where we are now and why it’s getting worse non linearly. show me the stats on the investigators who search diligently for people who are full of shit…. And their mandate and desire is to rid the system of them.. oh wait they don’t exist.. All the other stats are worthless.

I could write a book on it but you wouldn’t believe. A quick story. I had a job where I spoke with 50/new people a week for the better part of 14 years about their personal finances. Mostly USA, some other English speaking countries. I knew their income, sources, what wealth and where. Debts etc. As an artifact of the marketing process, 10% of them were on disability, ssdi/similar. They “couldn’t work” for various reasons none through any fault of their own naturally. However what I was selling required working 10 hours a week from home minimum. I’ve always been curious and because they were all too broke to buy anyway, I’d ask them how can they work 10 hours a week if they “can’t work”? Miraculously, they rationalized and found a way to convince me they could do it, 95% of the time, “even more” in most cases. some will say this is worse than the super scientific stats paraded around these days. I disagree, 1000’s of them I asked the same thing, most sang the same song. If people heard what I heard, they’d be sick to their stomachs. You wouldn’t believe how many people are “depressed” and can’t work, as if we haven’t known suffering to be the human condition since words were written. The 5% who needed it, truly did. They were broken, like my brother who doesn’t qualify for ssdi because his disease stopped him from working for too long after he’d last worked. Now that won’t change your mind, only you can do that. spend some time with AI asking for more and more evidence of each and every govts programs perversions. What they started out as/intended for vs what they are now, their growth rates in excess of inflation plus population growth. Why it happens, what the trends are now. Do this for hours a day for a month. You will ask the wrong questions often. Eventually reality might smack you upside the head enough. Cheers.

Elon could have easily cut 1t from the budget of waste fraud and abuse, they didn't let him. Anyone who doesn't think there's 1t hiding in that 7+ T/year budget is naive.

I for the first time, 1.5 years ago, went through my parents financials, because my dad (82) has some form of dementia. He was always great at making money, climbed the corporate ladder at Union pacific for 22 years (grew up in omaha), made six figures in the 80's. He accepted a buy out for 450k in today's dollars when he was 48 and moved the family back to utah (where he and my mom grew up, mormon). Failed at a couple businesses then succeeded and did well for a couple decades. He was always right about everything, he always exaggerated, "I told you a million times I never exaggerate". Once I started doing well, he always competed with me financially, which seemed strange, aren't you supposed to be happy when your kid does well? He would repeatedly tell me about how well his investments had done, mainly his mobile home investments, which did do well, he bought about 20 of them for 8k, fixed them up for 5k, sold them for 40k on 15 year notes at 15%, the last one just finally paid off totally. However this was maybe 20% of his cash. After looking through his financials, I found out he's done nothing, literally nothing, with his money for at least 10 years. It was spread out in like 10 accounts which was such a pain to consolidate. Not even in money market accounts. Just cash. Some of the institutions were charging him 500/year to hold it (equity trust, ira self direct). I had to step in to their finances as my mom is smart but incompetent financially, very mormon patriarchal setup. My dad had recently built a ADU that cost 120k and he just stopped when it was half done and forgot about it, the neighbors were calling the city and so forth. My mom, had been letting my schizo brother, 48, living with them, spent 60k on their credit cards(he said hed pay it back from profits in the businesses he was starting, he hadn't worked for years) , mom said (a entrepreneur needs capital), wtf. Anyways, I asked my dad why he never invested any of the money, or let me help him or do it for him (every major downturn I'd say, please! please! buy something). He had sold his business and got a chunk of cash in 2008. Didn't invest a penny. He said he grew up poor on a farm in central utah and he was just always deathly afraid of being poor again. That's why he always worked so hard. He had tried investing in stocks, trading options that is, said he did well with it, however never more than 5% of liquidity was invested (I spent days over the years explaining why this was a bad idea for most if not all). I asked him to track his trades over 15 years ago so he KNEW what his actual returns were for a given strategy, he never did. He'd show me though and I'd see the account balance was 40k or something small. His alcoholic father would rent him to the farmers to drive their tractors starting when he was 10, his father would keep all the money and go on benders, disappearing for two weeks. His father died at 45 years old, was drunk, tripped and hit his head on the sink in a motel room. I tried to explain to him that for some companies or indexes that the entire country would have to fail for them to fail and if that happened his dollars wouldn't be worth anything anyway, to no avail. He was just scared to death and wouldn't admit it. It is hard to know how to invest their money now that I can, at their age, knowing they had 6 kids and half of them are broke, could really use a big payday and are too old for you to expect them to do it themselves.

It's interesting isn't it? It's still early days though so that supposed balance will naturally skew towards those who can use it. Over time more will learn, those that can't will fall to attrition. I find it fascinating how different prompts, multifaceted prompts, prompts with more qualifiers, and prompts asking for what your missing or not questioning that you should question seriously change the tokens. What your capable of asking is becoming marketable like never before.

I was thinking how this is all a black box as we don't and likely won't have all the info forever of for some time. One idea I had was maybe Israel said they would nuke Iran if Iran got or was close to having a nuke. Maybe nuke the nuclear facilities, or worse. In other words, what would you do if Israel said that? If so, defanging Iran would be a good compromise. Just speculating, however I do believe there's precedent enough for war in general and the way history is miswritten that something like this is high not low probability. The high representing all such possibilities in aggregate.

Second on YouTube. I I had to, I’d pay 10k for a lifetime membership w no ads. Id also pay an extra 10k for an electric dirt bike with a solid state battery, so 20k for a dirt bike. Hopefully we’ll have them within a few years. Make it a dual sport. No maintenance, 100k recharges. Double the power and half the weight on the engine/battery weight. No clutch needed. Left hand rear brake standard. Instant torque. Last forever. 80% percent charge in 10 minutes. Roughly twice the total miles per charge bs a tank of gas in most dirt bikes. Perfect traction control. Programmable horsepower curve. Much quieter. When this hits cars it’s all over from a performance but not cost perspective.

Coming from a libertarian background, which is no longer the case as what was once considered socially liberal has changed with the woke left, I couldn't comprehend how someone could be financially astute and believe the left was better on things like debt, deficits, economics etc. I spent a decade on this forum before I started hearing some ideas from the predominantly left wingers here on these issues in the politics section. I can't say they changed my mind in principal, but they did challenge some of my notions at the edges and when they did I'd go spend an hour or two with AI to update my positions. Previously I'd listen to Sam Harris or Bill Maher to get thoughtful left wing ideas, because I could never find any on the MSM although that's changing a bit recently. However they never discussed/don't understand anything financial which to me is the biggest existential threat that isn't a black box. The black box and other existential threat being war in all it's forms. I have less confidence there simply because I don't think we have anywhere close to all the facts. That said, some of the posts here on war related stuff has helped me get a bit closer to where maybe a general judgement could be made. I happily change my mind when presented with incontrovertible/parsimonious evidence, it might take a minute to recognize my cognitive dissonance but no long. Knowing that I don't know beforehand is my only superpower. Also, knowing that I don't really make a difference anyway and that the only problem that might be solved is my personal edification that comes from understanding a bit more about what we are as humans in its various manifestations. Also, I've learned from posters here how much culture/social stuff actually does matter and contributes to the economic problems. One recent example is Parsad mentioned to me IIRC that left and right wing govts added debt at the same % of gdp implying there's not difference there. I still don't agree that's fundamentally the way to view the problem but I spent an hour researching to see to what degree that's relevant/true. Also, Parsad/couple others mentioned the Canadian govt, of which I know little, has run balanced budgets which interfered with my principal beliefs about how these things work, so I spent some time there to figure out how that came about and to what degree it was relevant/if I need to remap my beliefs based on that. Once I was climbing in Fontainebleau, France, 2015 iirc, and I was having dinner with two PHD's from San Francisco and politics came up and I brought up abortion thinking it would be an easy discussion the way I was framing it, that is. I don't have strong opinions on the issue. I think it's hard to say it's not killing a person but I can't get myself quite to the forcing others on the issue. The framing I used was simply "is it a baby 8 months into the pregnancy?". I thought the answer was obvious, it was. They thought I was crazy, referring to the 8 month old as a fetus and a parasite repeatedly. That was a great moment for me! They were smart and we'd been climbing together for a couple days having a good time and here I am face to face with total disregard for my framing! Incidentally, in 2020 I had my first kid, a preme, born at 7 months old and he spent 6 weeks in the NICU, didn't need any support at all. He's doing great and just passed the 1st grade reading test (his mother teaches 1st grade) and he'll start kindergarten in September. Regarding the recent bans, I really liked the discussion! It's too bad people have to resort to ad hominem attacks. Too bad we can't bring back duels. It seems to me that the one of the primary problems with our species is we haven't incorporated "sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me" very well. Personally, there's nothing someone can say to me that bothers me, zero. It's either true or not, it's either something that can be controlled or not. I see no reason to respond to the noise that floats around inside my head.

I’ll just add for those of us that don't already know. Own something like Brk which has its own massive cash pile as a % of mkt cap which has the will and desire to buyback stock, buy stocks, buy companies outright at depressed prices is a good hedge. Not quite the diversification as s and p (debatable if mkt cap weighted) however very diversified. unfortunately, they weren’t as aggressive as we would have liked during covid but they did do the above mentioned things. Presumably they’d have been more aggressive if things were worse than -20% indexes. Hopefully Greg will be more aggressive in the future.

Do I get 72 virgins?

your response is good. You’ve outlined your position. Better would be a why for each of those… not because it’s not clear to me but because the why of some of the posters here is a mystery to me. That’s all I’m asking for. Not a Viking level of frfhf analysis, simply what you stand for and why as opposed to whack a mole.

I'll admit to not knowing how to know when it comes to military actions. Afaik, if one fact changed, I could be for one way or the other. Namely, I don't think we have the intel that exists and we don't find out those details ever or often times for decades. If Iran had bioweapons ready to go and was planning at attack that would kill millions in USA, everyone would be thinking very different thoughts. Plenty of known risks, I have no idea what the unknown's are or the unknown unknowns. I don't believe history, especially political. Which history? The one fox news or the one MSNBC wrote (or those with the money, or the few that could write etc.). I don't think I've heard anyone articulate the history I would write about the massive blunders of the covid era. My version, won't be written by anybody. In order of importance, mine would center on the obvious blunder of the (unnecessary) shutdowns, the unnecessary massive debts that accelerated the death debt/inflation spiral that will hobble our country forever, the lesson to all our enemies of just how easy it is to destroy us, recipe clear for all to see. The overconfidence of scientism as opposed to science. The taking of excess powers/controlling speech of others the second the speech wasn't tenable to some. It would definitely be more interesting, for those here that have strong opinions about Israel, Iran, etc. If they articulated what would be a just outcome or what they would do, when they made their opinions. Meaning, make your predictions, describe what is or isn't a good outcome and why, keep a scorecard. Not just so we can keep them accountable but so that they can clearly see their own inevitable mistakes/successes that result from clear pronouncements based on what turns out to be limited info in hindsight, often. A bit ago, I believe it was dealraker, described how he or some posters, were pushed from extreme worries about x then y then z and reflecting on the strangeness of it. I think the medium is the message there. Take Iran, if you can't say if this or that outcome happens, it's good and you find yourself only finding the bad in any outcome, ensuring you face zero cognitive dissonance, that's a good sign to look in the mirror. Alternatively if you set the bar so high, that the only good outcome exists only in utopia, ensuring your views can't lose.....

Hmm. Initially, I thought that was weird, as messiah doesn't complete the atreides line and I read the trilogy that was marketed that included children of dune. Personally, I thought messiah was just a filler/go between to set up children of dune. I asked Ai about the history of what was once vs now considered the trilogy and it said children of dune was always apart of it. Anyways, hopefully they finish with Children. If anyone here reads them, make sure to read children of dune.

Prediction. They will try to make a federal law that prohibits/penalizes this “tax evasion” that is moving to another state. Also I’m afraid they’ll have the fed govt bail out their states as well…. When possible/necessary.

Seems a waste to end on Messiah. Hopefully, they finish the trilogy, even sans Denis.

Yep, good not great so far, which is more than I can say for 98% of what comes out these days. I'm half way through.

I’ve been through some of them.. iirc was free w audible sub years ago. They are good in a broad brush sort of way. Personally, liking philosophy for example, a broad brush is antithetical to the subject. I could provide some good stuff if you have interest here. I just looked up what they offer. I was only listening to audio… looks like they have written material videos of lectures and more. If you do it and it’s cool let me know how it goes.

Wow, so much nitpicking. So far so good IMo. I'd like to see more opportunistic buybacks, even it's is relatively small slugs on those weeks, typically lately or in 2025, when there's dips. Would anyone else like to see them deploy an extra 100b in market downturns like liberation day/April last year? I know it's not the buffett ethos, but why not have a dual ethos? I wouldn't care if they just bought a couple indexes on down turns and sold them off over time. If they are afraid of etf's, for public perception purposes, they could just buy a basket that mimics one. Anyways, isn't this what most of us do? They buying trimming on downturns/upturns? If we had that much cash to deploy I think we'd be doing something like this. Seems such a waste what was done in 2020, 2022/23, and april 25. Namely, the amount invested vs available cash to invest.

Anyone have a opinion informed or otherwise that large buybacks may be done at not perfect prices in the future is a large block is up for sale? Are the standards reduced a bit in these cases?

Yep. Both are great. Read Hyperion 1 and 2. You’re lucky you get to!

Dan Simmons died. Writer of Hyperion. sad. another great sci fi is player of games of the culture series… can be read stand alone.

Wow, ya that's just horrendous, no doubt some of us are luckier than others. I feel for you. You must be tough. I never met either of my grandpa's. One died when on a bender and tripped and hit his head on the sink at 45 years old and died. The other had been smoking for 25 years, unfiltered cigarettes and died of heart complications mid 40's as well. Both grandma's made it to 87 and 94 though so there's reason to believe the genes might be okay, so long as I don't smoke or become an alcoholic! That said, both what you and I are saying can be and are true at a population level.

Glad you said this. Anyone who honestly thinks that diet (what you eat and portion size), exercise, sleep quality etc doesn't make a big diff is simply being anti scientific/ignorant. I'm not saying you are a bad if you don't focus on it, just saying it's untrue that you can't make a meaningful difference by the lifestyle choices you make. Additionally, the magnitude of the difference you can make based on science is growing, yearly. I'll grant the science isn't always perfect, there's so many variable, and science interpreted by humans is often misused like statistics to confirm one's preconceived notions/sell stuff. That said there is some that's at least highly probably, and much that's likely and is very unlikely to have a downside resulting in increased odds. I recommend the nutrition made simple! channel on youtube. He's not perfect but he's the closest I've found to a doctor that specializes in research regarding the subject and will show you the actual studies, their claims, meta studies of studies, and tries to break down what they do or don't mean without fluff, or very limited fluff. Here's a good example, From a motivational perspective, there's nothing better as you age than having a body/mind that works well. What would you pay to have an extra ten high quality years? I bet many of you would give up half your net worth if it was guaranteed. The tendency to consider genes being primary is based on the past, you know, "this one guy smoked forever and lived to 100" type anecdotes. In the past we didn't know what we know now, or a lot less. We can't know to what degree genes make versus choices to any meaningful degree until we have large enough groups of people who have made good choices for decades to compare to based on current science. Its backward looking not forward.

Unwanted advice. Try some super high polyphenol olive oil. about quadruple to polyphenols of most store popular brands. life extension brand olive oil. Healthier and tastes great.

Ya I know it’s not popular. I’m with the founders on limiting voting. The way to implement it, would be equal in a meritocratic sort of way. Have a 12 ? Multiple choice test required that required something like a 5th grade level of understanding of govt. this would eliminate the lazy, super low iq’s, many of the crazies, the illiterate, and those that are signed up by others to vote effectively. Taking the test would be made available to all in public places or online etc at any time. If the founders had implemented this in the first place, I wouldn’t be surprised if everyone thought it perfectly normal now.