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gary17

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Everything posted by gary17

  1. @StubbleJumper OK i deleted my comment if you want to delete your quote of my onw deleted comment ! it was a question, i have no idea who it was. just a random guess.
  2. I had a really , really wonderful year in 2023 - no point posting how well I did, i mean i don't really even believe it myself -- it's really just luck and being able to tag along all the great ideas that were shared on this board; i have been madly focused on running a small business that I am a part of, and the portfolio made of FFH and the usual tech companies simply out performed . I was a skeptic of FFH in earlier years; but slowly I was convinced of Prem changing direction - especially when he acknowledged some of the poor decisions he made few years ago. I am not sure how to express my thanks to people, but I made meaningful donations to local charities at the end of 2023 -- the community here definitely helped made it possible for me to do so. Thank you to Sanjeev for having this forum and having me here to tag along.
  3. Merry Christmas to everyone ! It’s been a really great year , but above all else health and happiness are the most important. Wishing everyone a healthy & happy new year
  4. It is hard to place significant value of this writing when he only done 3.2% since inception vs. 13.2% for the S&P500 !
  5. Just to clarify, the 8x to 10x = 10% ~ 12.5% return on investment for me - and i think that's OK given the risk free rate is around 5% - so demanding another 5 % - 7% return on the risks. but clearly it's not trading at 8x - 10x; it's trading at 5.5x or 18% ROI. So market is pricing the risk at mucher than my 5 - 7%. So the market may know something i don't.
  6. If I was any good i wouldn't be on this forum all the time for great insight from the smart people ! lol for me i think because FFH is trading close to book, so ROE is also close to return on my investment. If it's a stable business and the prospects are good, i think i'd be happy to pay at least 8- 10x or whatever the market is at. I've found over the years paying market price for good business worked out just fine. At 8-10x, that'd make this $1280 - $1600usd/share - and by that measure FFH is certain under-valued. I am not sure what the market is also factoring in, but perhaps the cost of borrowing for the investors - if one can get 4 - 5% from fixed income, certainly reduces appetite for stocks. Also opportunity cost of what else is in the investment universe . And perhaps the market is still waiting to be convinced the underlying investment philosophy - the lost decade - won't be repeated.
  7. MMM20, thanks, i totally get what you are saying. The cheap cost of capital is an advantage. I just wish they could get even higher returns for the cheap capital they can get - but I guess the nature of insurance business is such that they can only invest in certain types of securities / fixed income for when there's a payout. I think higher valuation could come when they start transforming to be more like Berkshire with wholly owned subsidiaries. Gary
  8. hi Viking - thanks for all this. makes sense. For me FFH is cheap, but it does seem like they earn a low return on invested capital; they are only showing decent return on equity because it's a leveraged business. my high level observation. Gary
  9. Taiwan's GDP per capita surpassed Japan's - Gary
  10. one i follow for years but never really pulled the trigger in a meaningful way is PAC - they operate airports in Mexico. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/PAC?qsearchterm=pac stocks done well over the last 15 years + 4% yield at the moment. Was higher yield before.
  11. risks related to the debt ceiling.... i think that's what the market is pricing in.
  12. @MMM20 What's Scotia's target price? TIA!
  13. i don’t have sophisticated analysis or in depth knowledge like many here - so many thx especially to Viking. and petec. i have always thought they had some good records. got an interesting bag of business. for me the big one was if Prem & co acknowledged their earlier mistakes and willing to course correct. i think i heard that quite clearly from him in a conf call and that’s when i decided to buy shares. i don’t like his kids on the board etc. but i think i will watch out for that.
  14. Thx Sanjeev I was buying Fairfax in 2021 and 2022. I just kept quiet but have been following the story and Atco too. i owned Allied World for years before Prem bought them out I had the $1500 per share in mind when I was buying last summer. it’s not that i all the sudden got excited about this. just thought i clarify that
  15. i get confused with if people are using CAD and USD in their messages. I think this company should be around $1500 cad- $2000 per share
  16. aoubt negative 15% this year ! Did extremely well with IBI (TSE:IBG) , FFH while preserved capital with ATCO , CZO which were significantly offset by my reinvestment of those gains into the tech sector. Hopefully long term those bets will pay off! Thanks to everyone for sharing all the knowledge, etc. I learned a lot this year & look forward to 2023. Happy new year!
  17. i agree with you there but from what i've experienced, there's a network fee & also the time delay in the transaction , which is network fee dependent. if and when we get to a point where there's minimum fee & transaction is almost instantaneous , i'd say then we are there.
  18. To get BTC to any local currency you need an exchange and a bank account there’s still lots of ways government can control this.
  19. Canada to introduce 2% share buyback tax - this will affect FFH. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ottawa-to-introduce-2-corporate-share-buyback-tax-in-2024-1.1841495
  20. gary17

    China

    Perhaps that is his goal, just like Putin must do something about Ukraine. these are world leaders have 'mid-life' crisis... they've got the money, the power, and the only thing worth doing with their remaining time is leaving a mark in history. scary for sure. it's very interesting china uses the word one china 'principle' and the US has always said they have a one china 'policy'. principle & policy are not the same lol. i just wish these crazy people would just calm down - the world enjoyed so much peace since world war 2. it's very scary to think of possible conflict over taiwan, and how neighbouring asian countries, japan, korea, north korea, may all kinda get drag into it. won' be good for stocks.
  21. gary17

    China

    i think we don't know if he is just saying that but policies will slightly shift after he's re-elected. i believe HK has losen the rules now. if zero covid continues, however, it'd be a bit of a pain on inflation but long term may benefit the west as the world moves on to a new supply chain arrangement without china, not to mention slow-down in china due to capital & talent outflow .
  22. looking at fairfax two year corporate bond lol
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