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frommi

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  1. Can someone explain to me why fairfax is taking on debt at all while at the same time investing in lower yielding bonds?
  2. 32% Tobacco (10% BTI, 8% PM, 6% IMB, 5% MO, 3% STG) 25% REITs (5% EPRT, 5% BNL, 3-4% O,AMT,CCI,NXRT,AVB, MAA) 10% MDLZ 5% Evolution AB 8% NCAV Portfolio (KRON,SEER,RPID,AVIR,DSGN,HRBR,HURC,UUU) 9% Puts (7.5% DAX, 0.7% TSLA, 0.7% BA) 10% Cash Is somebody more defensive than me?
  3. If your account gets hacked and your money transferred out of your account via these illiquid stocks that you/the hacke bought for horrondeos prices, you maybe think a little bit different about this issue
  4. No because its irrelevant but he also makes macro calls, they are just not as promiment. Winding up his partnership in 1969? Selling BRK-stock in 2000 and warning of the bubble? Even in the latest letter is a hint that the market is very frothy. I am pretty sure he also looks at the yield curve and its implications. Graham told us that we should increase our cash/bond allocation at times and have it varying depending on whats available. So its not so black and white. For me it makes sense to look where we are in the capital cycle and invest accordingly. Theres also a book on this i think its Capital Returns: Investing through the Capital Cycle .
  5. The inverted yield curve is not really a signal, its the root cause of why the economy doens't expand anymore. Banks lend long term and borrow short term. So if the yield curve is inverted they don't make money on new credit, which leads to reduced economic activity. At least as far as i understand this. Maybe increased government spending counteracts this a bit, but i doubt its enough to counter it in the long run.
  6. True, but with my strategy of just buying puts over the summer months when unemployment is trending up, i just have to be right 1 out of 5 times to make money in the end.
  7. It takes time after the inversion, and the stock market weakness typically starts after the first rate cut.
  8. yes thats the last nail. first sign - Yield curve negative - since more than 1 year now, just like 1989, 2001 and 2008. second sign - Unemployment rate growing, low was 3.4% last year, we are at 3.9% now. like 1989, 2001 or 2008. third sign - Rate cuts. Economy is weakening. 0-6 months after these events we had a 20-25% "crash" in every case. And you wont find a lot of instances where 1. and 2. happened without a crash. It only occured in 1979-1982, the pullbacks there were just 5-10%. But Shiller P/E in those years was 7-8, while we are now at 35. I would argue, based on these facts, the top is close or already in.
  9. 2% fcf yield for a business that grows at 7-8% in the long run and has problems atm. still not really cheap.
  10. As far as i understand it, high HDL is not a problem at all. And high LDL is also not always a problem or the real problem, its just an indicator. See https://youtu.be/sY48qLl9ZzE?si=m6xPfabrrcyp21F6 or
  11. I watched a lot of interviews with Sinclair, the basic stuff is all fine. But he is deep into supplements, like Bryan Johnson. And for a reason, because they sell this stuff. You can spend millions on this with zero change on your longevity. >95% of people will not do the core stuff (like workouts/changing diet/stop smoking) and focus on the things that change little. Because the core stuff requires hard work and changing habits. Taking supplements/spending money is easy. But it will not make you live that much longer in isolation.
  12. I eat 3 eggs per day for breakfast, i doubt its the eggs. High cholesterol levels can come from being overweight, because it changes how much cholesterol your body produces. If you eat too much cholesterol your body will mostly just get rid of what it doesn't need. If i were you i would cut carbohydrates out completly first and see how it goes. For me going low-carb was a life-changing event. I will never go back. But everybody is different in that regard, you have to test which diet works best for you. Going whole foods and avoiding processed foods as already mentioned is core. I would suggest a diary where you write down what you eat. Often that process of writing down will already change what you eat. As for strength training, i would begin with push-ups, squads and sit-ups. These are "easy", effective and free.
  13. I have a simple rule, anyone that has a company in the field of medical stuff that wants to sell you something for longevity (even if it is just a book) i dont trust. So advice from Sinclair or Esselstyn are out for me . I think its pretty common sense nowadays that working out (having enough muscle mass), not smoking or drinking alcohol, good sleep (~8 hours) and not being overweight is >90% of the journey. The rest is just noise, and most of the time somebody just wants to sell you something.
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