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JRM

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  1. That's a shame. I lived in Chicago in 2003, and it was probably the best time to be there in the last 100 years. My wife and I used to visit at least once a year since we met. We've stopped that tradition and I'm not sure I feel comfortable visiting with our kids now. I feel like we're headed back to the 1970's.
  2. I've read his book about Allied Capital. I also try to follow what he writes about and invests in because I generally agree with him. So what has changed in 20 years? Einhorn still seems to be worried about the SECs whereabouts in his shorts positions?
  3. lol. I think it was Jim Chanos who said something to the effect of don't count on regulators taking action for your short thesis to work.
  4. The millennial you are describing is the exception, not the norm. I am also technically a millennial and have been a homeowner for 12 years. I know most people in our demographic have not had the same experience.
  5. It doesn't seem possible, but I think Gregmal is likely correct. We are in the first stage of a housing demand boom. Supply is tight in many markets, and millennials are getting out of debt and out of their parents basement. They are starting to form families, and the next 5 years is likely going to be strong for housing in the US. Student loan forgiveness will only help to accelerate this trend. Even if there are a lot of boomers selling to downsize, they still have to live somewhere. Don't forget, the population of 'kids of boomers' is larger than the population of boomers in the U
  6. I guess you have to decide for yourself what is most important factor in a gold miner. I put a heavy weight on geopolitical risk. Some put a heavy weight on asset quality. Debt is always a factor, but doesn't seem too important to analysts at the moment. The investor presentation on Kinross's IR site has a slide that claims that Kinross has a 'weighted geopolitical score' higher than Kirkland Lake (indicating it is safer?). I'm not sure that passes the smell test for me. Aside from that they have some debt and some marginal geo-political risk.
  7. ARKK is basically a 3x QQQ ETF with higher management fees. But hey, its a Morningstar 5-star fund.
  8. If people are allowed to pick BRK with a extra dose of AAPL, then surely I can pick a couple of ETFs. MSOS - I don't know who the winners will be in the U.S cannabis market, but there will be winners. One of the rare opportunities where retail investors can get in before institutional money. SIL - Silver miners should benefit from the coming onslaught of battery, solar panel, and electric grid investments. Silver mine production is slowly declining and we are likely near an upward inflection of industrial demand. At current spot price it is not economical to open up silver only
  9. I think everyone needs to watch that video. It is obviously biased. You could make a video of the FSD mode working miraculously just as easily. The videos of people crawling in the back seat to take a nap are the primary reason why this technology shouldn't be beta tested on the general public. I'm driving on the same roads as these morons. They have about the same level of intelligence as people I know who have put 100% of their 401k into Tesla.
  10. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banned-youtube-devastating-video-details-teslas-full-self-driving-claims-versus-reality
  11. No capital raise to fund 5m to 10m unit production in less than five years seems reasonable...and pay off all the debt as well. Here's a good interview I came across about the supply chain inputs to EV batteries. https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/pedal-to-the-metals-are-there-limits-to-the-supply-of-ev-batteries/
  12. Krazy Kathie back to pumping Tesla: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3674607-ark-invest-fires-off-new-price-target-on-tesla The $3,000 price target would imply a $3.2T market cap if my math is correct.
  13. There were winners and losers in the 1970s. I've heard my father commenting many times about how that period of inflation rapidly paid off the house and brought the family a higher standard of living. His pay rose with inflation. Yes, it's great for people with debt, but horrible for people living on fixed incomes or cash savings. Hence the boomer retirement plan of buy the biggest house you can mortgage then downsize when its time to retire.
  14. I finally got around to reading some of that 2035 Report. It kinda looked like they took the total grid load, subtracted desired nuclear and natural gas contribution, and divided by 14 years (2035-2021) to come up with 70 GW per year of renewables required to meet the goal. Sounds great. Maybe I haven't read far enough, but there are no discussions of decline rates in panel efficiency or replacement intervals. Also, what is the carbon input required to make all of these solar panels and wind turbines? They also don't seem to account for sourcing of the rare earth metals required to
  15. Good point. I guess my point is there's more to natural gas consumption than just power plants. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/NG_CONS_SUM_DCU_NUS_M.htm
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