What are you buying today?

[nwoodman]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

@nwoodman What is your rationale for this buy?

Building out Japanese positions on a basket basis, my aim is to get to 15%.  Then came across some broker coverage that lead to a deeper dive.   Management change earlier this year lead to their chief strategy officer becoming their CEO, this also sparked interest on a qualitative basis.  Read growth bias. 

 

I think they might have overpaid a little bit for Iveric but that seems to be common knowledge.  However they got early clearance on Avacincaptad Pegol (“ACP”).  None of this is new but I do like the new CEO’s focus on some of the recent minor investments with benefits.  Looks expensive on a P/E basis until you consider the flow on, this might be a P/E 12 in a year or two vs a P/E 37 now.  Also the pipeline looks promising for future growth read 3-5 years with a a focus on various cancer cures.

 

This is not without major risks,  just ask Apellis shareholders who are the competitors in the USA to ACP, where Syfovre, may have some secondary concerns around retinal vasculitis (or inflammation).  It’s a Pharma so caveat emptor.  It just happens to be one of the top 5 in Japan

 

https://www.globaldata.com/companies/top-companies-by-sector/healthcare/japan-companies-by-market-cap/

Edited September 15, 2023 by nwoodman

[no_free_lunch]

Cargojet (CJT.TO) - Canadian company, air transport of goods.  Likely this is known to Canadian investors on the board so always happy to hear their opinion, good or bad.   

 

They have an excellent track record, around 20% EPS growth over the past decade and yet are not very promotional.   Low debt (2.5x EBITDA), good management, near monopoly.   I like that management issued a large share block (I think ~20-30% of additional stock) when the share price got to it's peak last year at close to double the current price, looks brilliant in hind-sight.   They are in the dog house after increased COVID linked business has started to wind down but I trust the management and they will find new business and/or cut costs to make up for it.   Not without risks, it's a fairly shallow moat and so you are really trusting in management but then so far they have consistently delivered.

Edited September 15, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Eng12345]

Small amount of JOE…had to swallow hard on the price of $57.30…my cost basis was around $35 previously 

[wondering]

I bought a little bit of Chorus Aviation CHR.TO

[fareastwarriors]

CLPR

[Gregmal]

38 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

CLPR

Curious how you are viewing Clipper here? I’m torn on this because yea it’s cheap. Yea it’s got rents finally escalating through the financials. At the same time I fear it’s just a mediocre bond substitute here because the main issues just aren’t getting addressed. I don’t like management groups the just don’t care at all about their share price. I’ve gotten nothing that disproves this. I don’t care how much money they made buying stuff for themselves decades ago. You can Google CLPR chart and then select “all” and those results are embarrassingly bad. They almost certainly aren’t open to selling the company which is a must in terms of box checking for a small cap REIT. What causes something to change? Large cap REITs are basically dead money where maybe you get 10% annualized from the better ones but so what? So it’s like ok what’s the play here? Are we just praying for an optically challenged company with complacent management to rerate? At best I kinda just think it’s a decent sardine that if you’re working with a tiny account you can monetize 5-10% liquidity fluctuations and that’s it.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Gregmal

[LC]

Cheap. I’ve got a position I now hard refuse to add to. Otherwise I agree with you.
And I’m just hoping to catch a stroke of luck to get bailed out of it, because I don’t see any catalysts on the horizon.

[Gregmal]

31 minutes ago, LC said:

Cheap. I’ve got a position I now hard refuse to add to. Otherwise I agree with you.
And I’m just hoping to catch a stroke of luck to get bailed out of it, because I don’t see any catalysts on the horizon.

Yea I mean it’s just frustrating. At peak in 2021 I has a LSD position in terms of shares outstanding. The macro set the tone there. It was easy and I got my target. I’ve been very tepid buying back in and have a small 6 figure position right now with a high $5s basis. Here, it’s very different for a lot of reasons. Which then fall back on…

 

1) we all see how much money management extracts from the company.

 

2) we all see the public track record.

 

3) we all see the complete absence of insider purchases and share buybacks.

 

4) we all see the continued insistence on growing the size of the company regardless of the share price 

 

5) we all see they’ve still got that side venture shareholders receive zero benefit from.
 

Sooo…why should we care? At what point are they embarrassed by the IPO date and price versus todays print? Do they ever do anything about it? And more importantly, is there anything at all that changes that or if I invest am I just stuck praying for a fundamental inflection that may never come? 

[Gregmal]

Put a little different….does anyone think they have any remorse at all for what they’ve done to anyone who invested in their IPO? Is there any shame or feeling of owing something to their shareholders? Or is it just business as usual?

[Spekulatius]

20 hours ago, nwoodman said:

Building out Japanese positions on a basket basis, my aim is to get to 15%.  Then came across some broker coverage that lead to a deeper dive.   Management change earlier this year lead to their chief strategy officer becoming their CEO, this also sparked interest on a qualitative basis.  Read growth bias. 

 

I think they might have overpaid a little bit for Iveric but that seems to be common knowledge.  However they got early clearance on Avacincaptad Pegol (“ACP”).  None of this is new but I do like the new CEO’s focus on some of the recent minor investments with benefits.  Looks expensive on a P/E basis until you consider the flow on, this might be a P/E 12 in a year or two vs a P/E 37 now.  Also the pipeline looks promising for future growth read 3-5 years with a a focus on various cancer cures.

 

This is not without major risks,  just ask Apellis shareholders who are the competitors in the USA to ACP, where Syfovre, may have some secondary concerns around retinal vasculitis (or inflammation).  It’s a Pharma so caveat emptor.  It just happens to be one of the top 5 in Japan

 

https://www.globaldata.com/companies/top-companies-by-sector/healthcare/japan-companies-by-market-cap/

Thx. I have small positions in 4290,  7605, 9928. Found those via a combo of Twitter and screening. I carefully look for companies that have shown organic growth in the past, which is rare in Japan. I have build a screener around that too.

 

My biggest concern with Japan is value traps and I had plenty of those, but it seems like the ground is slowly shifting with better capital allocation.

 

I don’t see anything special with 4503 (Astellas)I think the Japanese Pharma were left behind when the research went from chemistry to biological 30 years ago. I would rather buy BMY if bottom fishing for cheap pharma stocks, but have no deal insight here.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Spekulatius

[nwoodman]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Thx. I have small positions in 4290,  7605, 9928. Found those via a combo of Twitter and screening. I carefully look for companies that have shown organic growth in the past, which is rare in Japan. I have build a screener around that too.

 

My biggest concern with Japan is value traps and I had plenty of those, but it seems like the ground is slowly shifting with better capital allocation.

 

I don’t see anything special with 4503 (Astellas)I think the Japanese Pharma were left behind when the research went from chemistry to biological 30 years ago. I would rather buy BMY if bottom fishing for cheap pharma stocks, but have no deal insight here.

Appreciate the feedback.  I totally agree with your  basic premise around Japanese value traps.  Our difference in views around potential growth from both the recent acquisition of Iveric and subsequent minor positions is what makes a market.  Thanks again.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Sold my entire position in Rolls Royce now that it's nearly tripled this year. 

 

Buying Exor with the proceeds. Is now my second largest position only behind Fairfax.

 

Will probably try to flip most of these shares into the upcoming tender. Remains to be seen if I buy Exor back with those profits or not. 

[formthirteen]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Sold my entire position in Rolls Royce now that it's nearly tripled this year. 

 

Congratulations. I owned it for a while but gave up  Seems the new CEO was wrong about his own company:

 

Quote

 

The new chief's initial reading of the situation was bleak. “Every investment we make, we destroy value,” he told employees in January

 

 

Quote

Just a few months ago, the new chief of Rolls-Royce described the company as a "burning platform" that was severely underperforming compared to its competitors.

 

[Saluki]

Added a little NTDOY.  Still a small position but building to a full position when I get cash. 

[Cod Liver Oil]

I bought LHX for my kids' college funds. It gives us an opportunity to discuss rockets, space and geo-politics in an investment/Star Wars context. The hypersonics thing made me pull the trigger so to speak:

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/hypersonic-missiles-america-military-behind-936a3128?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

 

Edited September 19, 2023 by Cod Liver Oil

[CorpRaider]

A little LAMR

[Paarslaars]

Very small position of OSTK calls.

[longlake95]

DG

[Castanza]

AIV, FRPH, PCYO

[Dinar]

Added to Transdigm (TDG) and Philip Morris International (PM)

[Viking]

Cash. It has been a great year. Time to get more defensive. Lock in gains. Back up to 30% cash. Get paid close to 5% risk free to sit in the weeds and wait and see what Mr Market pukes up next. The move higher in bond yields is what i am watching right now. How high can they go?
 

i am not turning bearish. Or bullish.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Viking

[no_free_lunch]

Bought a small 1% position in LHX.  Will like to add as I learn more.  Not without some minor issues but as usual, the issues feel priced in.  Trading at 15x analysts estimates for the year.  It's a compounder and a cannibal.

[burton@4240]

Bot me some SYBT 

[no_free_lunch]

CNR.to - Canadian railroad oligopoly, mega compounder, trading around 19x earnings albeit this years earnings are flat.  The company's record and industry dynamics speak for themselves.   It's down 15% or so which is a decent and rare opportunity.

Edited September 21, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Lance]

Small adds to EDV, JOE and OUT.

 

New positions in LVMH and LTPZ.