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TwoCitiesCapital last won the day on April 10

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About TwoCitiesCapital

  • Birthday 04/04/1989

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  1. It happens when you pay the guy required to write the code in pizza parties and department meeting shout-outs Obviously his boss either didn't "trust - but verify" or didn't have the ability to and has been coasting for years.
  2. Best play would probably be to pull a Tesla. Issue stock, convertible bonds, etc as much as the market will bear. Turn that into capital that provides a floor to the valuation and invest it in growth, acquisitions, or pay a portion back out as dividends. Fairfax may not capture 8x BV this way, but they can absolutely lock in some of the benefit while maintaining control and long term exposure.
  3. Perhaps - but I've got to work with what I've got and nobody is giving me leverage in my IRAs/401ks/etc where the vast bulk of my investable assets are. This is why I have to get it via the investments themselves like mREITS, discount CEFs, and the PIMCO/RAE Plus funds. They get better rates on the financing than I would too. My taxable accounts are currently nearly 100% Bitcoin and will remain that way for the foreseeable future and I don't really want to have that as collateral for my leverage so I do what I can elsewhere.
  4. So despite NOT doing a lot of things, he still managed to run the largest peace time deficits and failed to solve the "border crisis" with his wall? Glad we're on the same page here. I have plenty to show for plenty of my fixed income positions. The only ones doing poorly are the TLT/ZROZ duration plays that admittedly won't do much until the Fed cuts. The emerging markets funds I've owned have done ~10%/annum over the last 2-years. The CEFs had double digit returns in 6 months before I closed them out. My levered mortage exposure in mREITS is up mid-teens from a year ago. Sure - not the same returns as the SPY, but hella-good annualized returns w/o falling rates and the difference is you'll keep most of it in a recession scenario. Can't necessarily say that about the S&P or any stocks.
  5. is this what happened his first time around? Or was he running the largest peace-time deficits ever to fund tax cuts for the wealthy even pre-covid?
  6. +1 +1 I didn't think it would be terribly significant - but anything that is up 400% can quickly become so.
  7. Any of y'all know how much Cairo Mezzanine Fairfax holds from the prior spin-off/restructuring of Eurobank? according to IB - my shares are up ~4x since October and so am wondering what kind of impact that has on their balance sheet at as one of the largest holders of Eurobank prior to spinning off these loans.
  8. Me neither - should've been buying STLC again instead of CLF over the last few months
  9. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/07/12/makerdaos-1b-tokenized-treasury-investment-plan-draws-interest-from-blackrocks-buidl-ondo-superstate/ MakerDAO looking to put $1-2 billion of its $5 billion reserves in tokenized Treasury products. I'm not sure I follow all of the benefits of tokenization of traditional asset classes just yet - which are basically already digital ledgers with no physical records trading - but we'll see. It'll be interesting to see how far the government allows this to go - like what happens if Russia buys a ton of MakerDAO's USD stable coin as a reserve asset - how do we apply sanctions to tokens backed by treasuries or the stavlecoin itself?
  10. You're telling me the head of the Treasury has no control over the lawyers he employs?
  11. Can't buy lottery tickets in my IRA... Also, I think the odds here are just a hair higher than the odds in an actual lottery ticket
  12. The primary complaint over the last decade has been the amount of capital that flooded into the market due to ILS was largely what was keeping insurance pricing too low and keeping the market soft. Investors loved these things as a truly diversified income stream. This is good as tens of millions of investors should be better able to absorb the risk than a handful of reinsurers and there is no systemic risk. It's bad because most of those investors likely lack the same expertise in pricing as the reinsurance industry has and so may be more likely to underprice the risk - which will eventually lead to their exit from the market OR an improvement in their pricing. Not sure which is more likely, but these are products that have now been around 10+ years so I would hope the market participants are better at pricing the ILS
  13. Counting on Trump last time, and the courts before that, also proved to be poor strategies. At this point I'm simply holding it because it can still make a significant impact on my returns if par is returned at any point in the next 10 years, but is small enough relative to the rest of the portfolio that there isn't much performance drag from continuing to hold it.
  14. I still don't buy it. Trump could've directed Mnuchin what to do if this was a priority for him. It wasn't. I still hold my preferreds as a lottery ticket, but y'all need to stop buying into the hype that Trump will do a 180 from the last time he had influence/power to get it done. Trump only cares about himself. If he announced a personal stake in the companies, I might actually believe he'd attempt to get something done.
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