wondering

Does anyone have any knowledge how the float is invested in the smaller markets where Fairfax operates in? For example, what type of investments do they have in South America or Eastern Europe? Or is this so small, its not worth bothering about? I asked Peter Furlan (one of Hamblin Watsa guys) years ago at an AGM about the international investments. He mentioned that they don't play on FX, meaning that the float from, say Colombia is invested in Colombian stocks and bonds. At least, that was my understanding. Can anyone shed some light on this? Am I thinking about this the right way? My guess is that it is a small percentage of stocks, and mostly government bonds. PS - how the hell do you invest the float in Argentina?!

I went to Bangalore for two weeks for work. I was there 10 years ago. Terminal 2 is absolutely spectacular. Not good, not good for by Indian standards. Burt good by world class standards!!! A tourist destination in of itself. Also used Terminal 1. They have streamlined the enter process since when I was visited 10 years ago. Not perfect, but certainly better than it was before. My Indian colleagues said the Modi "rigged" the system ensuring that the BJP party will rule for the next +20 years. Previous Indian political parties were not really align in the typical left/right model. My Indian colleagues said now that has changed and BJP is the party of the right Please if anyone disagrees, please speak up. I just reporting what my Indian friends told me. Nothing really more insightful to add - Bangalore is growing by leaps and bounds, traffic is worse, and it crazy that FIH is selling at 60% of book when there is such growth and growth potential. The Airport will continue grow nicely.

Norman Rothery's two articles in the Globe and Mail give excellent ratings to Fairfax. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/article-meet-the-megastars-the-best-20-tsx-stocks-for-a-blend-of-value-and/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/article-the-globe-250-megastar-ranking-2023/ Also mentioned in these articles was other FFH notables (good ratings for Stelco and Fairfax India, poor rating for Blackberry). My question is with articles such as these and analysts upgrading Fairfax, when do we start to see the general investing public (I guess that could include both institutional investments and individual investors) start to change their mind on the prospects of Fairfax. In my work, I see the investment portfolios of clients. Almost all of them have some Brookfield, rarely does a client have an investment in Fairfax.

Truly a great man. I will continue read his nuggets of wisdom.

Globe and Mail. Insider transactions. Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. ( FFH-T +2.04%increase ) Between Nov. 8-10, vice-president of strategic investments Brad Martin sold a total of 5,000 shares at an average price per share of approximately $1,241.40, after which this particular account held 8,473 shares. Proceeds from the sales exceeded $6.2 million, excluding commission charges.

Damn. I was in the process for applying for a visa to go to India. I guess it will have to wait. I was going to go to Bangalore.

I bought a little bit of Chorus Aviation CHR.TO

I just finished this book. Really fun read. It opened my eyes to the fact that oil producers don't always have a ready buy for their crude at any given time.

small purchases of FIH Fairfax India. Thesis - US dollar can't be strong forever, good companies in the portfolio, and it's selling for something like 60% of book.

I am certainly no expert in this, but there is a rose bros podcast that discusses this particular topic

Me too. I read the book and I have been following his podcast since it started. I found the book a nice summary if person doesn't want to listen to the many hours of the podcasts. My takeaways are: the finer details of diets are probably less important than we realize. For example, paleo vs keto vs vegan etc... Stick with real food (meat, vegetables, fruits, etc). More importantly, stay away from highly processed food, added sugars. insulin sensitivity is super-important. Type 2 Diabetes and insulin insensitivity is a gateway to other diseases.. heart disease, cancer, Alzheimer's (although of course there are no guarantees) Because insulin sensitivity is super important, maintaining muscle mass through your life is also really important, which leads to the next point exercise is also super important. Both cardio fitness and maintaining muscle mass through resistance training Attia's editorial on the current medical system is spot on in my opinion. There is not nearly enough done for preventative care. Health care is really sick care. Once you you have heart disease, it is really hard to restore you back to your original healthy self. It's much better to do testing (eg early extensive lipids tests) and interventions when a person is in their 20s, 30s, and 40s, rather than waiting until they are 70 and their arteries are totally clogged.

I don't think anyone has posted this yet (pardon me if it has been posted) - 17 minute interview Prem gave with his views on the Greek economy, Greek investments - Sorry I am a big Prem-supporter, but the sound, and medium in which this was done was horrible, horrible. BuX t you concentrate on the content of the discussion, there are a few important take aways - a significant portion of the Greek debt is at 30 years at 1.5%, S&P says the debt profile of Greece is among the best in Europe - Greece will do will do well irrespectively of what happens in US and Europe - Greek banks are very well capitalized. 1.5 - 2.0x capital ratios of US banks, but selling at only 5-6X earnings

https://www.heliosinvestment.com/helios-fairfax-partners

both investor day and AGM videos have been posted

Hi Viking, I agree with your overall thesis for FFH, however could you expand on your argument why commercial real estate is the next asset class to go down.

Year end for Helios Fairfaix Partners released. Pretty much as expected - not great. But similar to the theme the Viking used with FFH, this is a ship that is SLOWING turning around. I guess my question is - at what point does Helios become interesting again? https://www.heliosinvestment.com/uploads/files/HFP-2022-Q4-Press-Release_1.pdf

Article in the Globe and Mail about Canadian P&C insurers in 2022, but does not mention FFH https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-how-home-and-auto-insurers-trounced-the-big-six-banks-and-became/ Article summary Intact Financial (IFC) stock price grew 21% in 2022 to Dec 23 Definity Financial stock price grew 30% in 2022 to Dec 23 Banks down 15% on average TSX down 8% P&C usually pretty boring sector, not as dependent on the economy as other sectors mentions the hard market A lot of the success of Intact and Definity due to personal auto insurance Intact CR 93%, Definity 96% Investment income helped by raising interest rates Intact recently bought RSA Insurance PLC Intact continues to increase its dividend to shareholders Definity, a newer player on the market. article quotes National Bank analyst Jaeme Gloyn "Valuations aren't exactly rich". Intact selling at 2.5X book (?????) My comments as others on the discussion have pointed out, it depends on what the maturity make-up is of the insurer's bond portfolio. FFH has played it exactly right (they are in the 1-2 year bonds). If an insurer invested heavily in the 10 year bonds, they are getting killed. I quickly looked at Intact's last quarter new release, but I couldn't see what their bond portfolio looks like. The article mentioned that Intact has continued to raise its dividend. Maybe this is a way for FFH to increase the multiple at which it sells at, however personally I like the modest dividend and I prefer the aggressive buyback of shares (more tax efficient). I don't quite understand the National Bank's analyst's quote of 2.5X book isn't expense for an insurer. Boy, would I love to see FFH selling at 2.5X book

the story of Grivalia. The audio is crap unfortunately. For the power point slide of the presentation, see Ben Graham Centre for Value Investing https://www.ivey.uwo.ca/bengrahaminvesting/resources/video-library/

The New Map (Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations) by Daniel Yergin Basically a summary of the big international events/politics over the last 20 years or so, mostly from the perspective of oil and energy. The main premise is that energy (which drives a lot of the word politics) now essentially has made the US, Saudia Arabia, and Russia the main players. Side note China is also a player, but mainly in terms of being such a huge consumer of energy and using its power based on this. The two big pluses of this book for me was 1) the story of shale gas and oil in the US and how it was such a game-changer for the US, and subsequently the rest of the world. 2) the brief overview of the other world issues such as the the South China Sea and how Russia's economy is so tied to the price of oil. When oil is in the dumper, so is the Russian economy. PS, As mentioned before, great overview of world issues. The right mix of depth, but not getting too much in the weeds. PPS, This is good book to read now, but in 2 or 3 years, this book will be hopelessly out-of-date.

I know the regular board members usually ignore the analyst stock recommendations and guidance (with good reason), but I thought it would interesting note National Bank analyst Jaeme Gloyn has FFH at target price at $1,100 Cdn/share, and the average of the analysts is at 919.29 as quote in the Globe and Mail “Although one of the best performing Financials stocks year-to-date, FFH remains the best value idea in our coverage,” he said. “Still trading below book value at 0.84 [times, the market is pricing FFH at an ROE of 6 per cent. We believe FFH can deliver sustainable long-run ROE of at least 10 per cent through a combination of consistently strong underwriting growth/profits and improving total investment return performance, in particular as interest rates move higher.”

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/foreign-investors-snap-up-indian-bonds-set-inclusion-global-indexes-2022-09-13/

The videos did a good job of highlighting some of the issues at play, although I don't think I am any further ahead in predicting what will happen. I find international politics a riddle inside an enigma. What I am watching is the economic performance of India in the next 12 months or so. I have read that they are buying Russian oil at discounted prices - will this have a material positive impact on their economy?

Interview with Tope Lawani from March 2022 - first 26 minutes about his background and personal history - 26 minutes onward talks about starting Helios and the investments - telecom towers in Africa, and the barriers to entry in Africa - Oil investments - banking in Africa. It's ripe for e-banking or phone-banking. It's cost-prohibitive for the average African to have a traditional savings account My current thinking on Helios Fairfax (note - I am greatly influenced by the other contributors to the discussion eg. Viking, Petec and others) - HFP is still cleaning up the mess left behind original Fairfax Africa team - in the last year or so made a new investment in a Morrocan grocery chain - emerging markets is getting killed right now with rise of US dollar etc. - a few questions - when will the US dollar adjust downward? When will institutional investors start investing in Africa and emerging markets in a bigger way? - once Wall Street returns to Africa, Helios is positioned way to capture some of that money. and therefore, more management fees for Helios Fairfax - note - I am invested in Helios Fairfax but I am down a lot

@hobbit, this article is behind a paywall. If you could give a brief summary of the article, I would appreciate it. Thanks.

Thanks @Viking. Great analysis as always. Not to be nit-picky, but I think one investment bucket which was overlooked was regular S&P500 TSX liquid stock investments like J&J, Bank of America, Wells Fargo (sold a while ago) etc. I guess they have done a lot of investing in this bucket because they have felt the margin of error wasn't there