As always, excellent explanation of Fairfax @Viking. Looking forward 5 years or so, what are the risks to these 5 streams of income. The following is me playing devils advocate or just raising points to consider (both for and against)
Underwriting income
eventual return of soft market.
major cat event. I think it has been mentioned that Fairfax has reduced their exposure to super-cat events. Does anyone know by how much?
Interest and dividend income
Fairfax has a history of excellent fixed income portfolio management, but lets say they screw it up
they go the wrong way on duration credit? (Maybe but not likely, currently they have average maturity of 2-3 years, can't remember specifically)
credit risk (maybe but not likely, holding mostly US govt bonds, maybe the the corporate debt, although I doubt it)
Share of profit of associates and non insurance (I am lumping these two together)
Eurobank - major recession in Greece and/or Europe. Another Euro crises. (this is beyond my brainpower)
Poseidon - major world recession. Interest rates on their debt increasing (I would like that they have considered these risks)
Recipe, Sleep Country, Peak Performance - major recession in Canada - always possible
India - major recession or stock market crash in India. Maybe a temporary hit to earnings, but I would think that Fairfax would be buying opportunistically.
Major capital losses realized or unrealized
major correction in US stock market. Sure, but again I think Fairfax would be buying opportunistically
Most of their portfolio is modestly priced. Maybe Orla would go down significantly.
Less subject to mark to market writedowns than in years past.