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wondering

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wondering last won the day on April 6

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  1. https://www.ft.com/content/4ced6dd7-aecc-4bb6-a09d-5d4ed713be45?shareType=nongift. A not such great review of Metlen
  2. 4th quarter release. Record annual earnings 41M or $0.37/share since HFP was established in 2020. Book value per share $4.22/share, increase of 10% from start of year. https://www.heliosfairfax.com/helios-fairfax-partners/news/q4-2025-press-release
  3. I just bought my ticket. I like supporting Crohn's and Colitis. I always meet great people. Fairfax has made me a boat load of money. But $450 bucks??!!!! Holy jumping!!!! I am value investor for a reason - I am cheapo. Next year, can we go to McDonalds?
  4. Dexterra article https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/c87e0f0f35a1821507db493c59625a086c930e49605b3becee04a73939c1c7b4/GLFNYQ3TFNDWLP3VRWWOAUFEZA
  5. @Viking maybe I will push back on point (great post as usual btw). Can you give an example where Fairfax has successfully invested in a turnaround situation
  6. I have got a two part question. The first question I think I know. 1. How does Fairfax manage FX risk. I asked Peter Frlan this question at an AGM, and he said that they also invest in the currency in which the premiums were earned. So for example, Crum earns insurance premiums in US dollars. Fairfax then invests this money in US dollar bonds and equity investments. Brit earns insurance premiums in pounds and euros (I assume) and therefore, all the float stemming from Brit would be invested in pounds and euros (equity and bonds). And based on this, this mitigates the FX risk. Do I understand this correctly. 2. If #1 is more or less true, then where does Fairfax invest the premiums earned in smaller markets such as Colombia, Argentina, Ukraine, etc.. These markets are really small. Do they just invested in government bonds? My thoughts are that they may invested in some public companies in these markets, but we don't about them because the investment is so small.
  7. @SharperDingaan, if oil major companies return to Venezuela again en mass, what does that mean for Canadian oil sands producers? My thinking behind my question is Venezuela and Canada are both heavy oil producers and thus competitors to one other. If Venezuela ramps up their oil production would this have a downward effect on the price of Western Canadian Select? My own thinking is that short term, there would be little to no direct effect, because it will still take years to rebuild the oil infrastructure that years of neglect. Long term, it may affect WCS since I assume the oil from both countries is refined primarily in the refineries in Texas. I am still a beginner when it comes to oil markets. Would appreciate any thoughts.
  8. I don't know. I thought the interaction between the two speakers sounded fake
  9. A good summary of where Fairfax stands at the moment. Although for regular readers of this board, not much new. The podcast sort of summarizes @SafetyinNumbers arguments. In fact I think they mention his holding company. https://youtu.be/ICdgMUKMmas?si=F-iOne-gxa9gFJA2
  10. I just finished reading the book. Here is my take-aways. It's the book you need, but don't want. The need: Even though I have been a shareholder for 20+ years and been a member of this board for 15+ years or so, I still learned a few new things about the company. After reading the book, I have a better appreciation of why Fairfax puts so much emphasis on corporate culture. This is something that don't appear in a stock screener but they are so important to the firm, and a key ingredient to the long term success of the company. It's no wonder that Morningstar hates the stock so much. The book is honest in that it freely admits the mistake Prem has made in the past (re early insurance co purchases, index shorts). But it also shows how he has learned from past mistakes. The company recently purchased a French insurance company. Given their experiences, I fairly confident that this purchase will work out in the long run. The want: I would have like to see a greater biography sketch of Prem, but there wasn't much new stated in the book. I have to admit this is only my curiosity, not actually important for me as shareholder. Also, I would have like to see perhaps a case study of their analysis of a past investment (how did they arrive at IV etc). Overall, the book is well worth the cost for any FFH shareholder or anyone thinking of investing in FFH. The company is a bit of an oddball compared to most public companies, and this book does an excellent job why the company is odd and how management wants to keep it that way.
  11. 100%! both on past Liberal governance, and how things may be changing
  12. As always, excellent explanation of Fairfax @Viking. Looking forward 5 years or so, what are the risks to these 5 streams of income. The following is me playing devils advocate or just raising points to consider (both for and against) Underwriting income eventual return of soft market. major cat event. I think it has been mentioned that Fairfax has reduced their exposure to super-cat events. Does anyone know by how much? Interest and dividend income Fairfax has a history of excellent fixed income portfolio management, but lets say they screw it up they go the wrong way on duration credit? (Maybe but not likely, currently they have average maturity of 2-3 years, can't remember specifically) credit risk (maybe but not likely, holding mostly US govt bonds, maybe the the corporate debt, although I doubt it) Share of profit of associates and non insurance (I am lumping these two together) Eurobank - major recession in Greece and/or Europe. Another Euro crises. (this is beyond my brainpower) Poseidon - major world recession. Interest rates on their debt increasing (I would like that they have considered these risks) Recipe, Sleep Country, Peak Performance - major recession in Canada - always possible India - major recession or stock market crash in India. Maybe a temporary hit to earnings, but I would think that Fairfax would be buying opportunistically. Major capital losses realized or unrealized major correction in US stock market. Sure, but again I think Fairfax would be buying opportunistically Most of their portfolio is modestly priced. Maybe Orla would go down significantly. Less subject to mark to market writedowns than in years past.
  13. New Ben Watsa video https://youtu.be/_KO4TyAVHAY?si=jRCGDrLFpnBDs4RJ
  14. 3rd quarter release. Helios is slowing turning the corner. Book value is now 4.05/share. (vs 3.84/share at Dec 2024). Nine months earnings 0.20/share (vs loss of 0.16/share first nine months of 2024) https://www.heliosinvestment.com/uploads/files/HFP-2025-Q3-Press-Release-Final.pdf
  15. I read the piece in the Globe and Mail. I can't wait for my copy to come. It seems like @Viking ghost wrote this book. Everything the author mentioned, Viking already talked about it a year ago. Haha
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