What are you buying today?

[fareastwarriors]

Congrats Greg!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 1/20/2023 at 2:58 PM, rkbabang said:

Picked up a few more SI 2025 $12.5 calls and a few more 2025 OSTK $25 calls.

 

 

 

On 1/5/2023 at 10:21 AM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

1/2024 $15 calls on Silvergate Bank

 

Down 40% today alone. Much more over the last several months.

 

Betting that it's a knee-jerk reaction, that they'll survive, and will be well positioned in the future.

 

Wondering if I sell? Or if I hold for the next 11-months of time value I've paid for?

[rkbabang]

4 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

 

 

Wondering if I sell? Or if I hold for the next 11-months of time value I've paid for?

 

I'm up more than 50% on mine, but I'm going to hold.  I paid up for another 23 months from now which I think should put us into the next crypto cycle.  I'm not sure what I'd do if I held the Jan 2024s.

[bizaro86]

5 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

I'm up more than 50% on mine, but I'm going to hold.  I paid up for another 23 months from now which I think should put us into the next crypto cycle.  I'm not sure what I'd do if I held the Jan 2024s.

I bought the Jan 2024s ($20 strike) when two cities made his original post. They've ~tripled. Luckily I sold >90% of the position for an average ~30% gain before the rip. Should help me stay humble in the future.

 

Binary stuff like this I think it makes sense to go way out of the money because you get a better return if it really works and it's probably a zero otherwise anyway. And then the other big lesson is to let the winners run...

[competitive-advantage]

21 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Looks great. Enjoy

[Viking]

CVE and a smaller amount of SU. Shares are cheap (both were taken out behind the woodshed the past 5 days). Free cash flow is large. What to do? Buy back stock hand over fist. Canadian oil companies are going to be buying back large amounts of shares in 2023. Should also provide a floor in the stock price. 

[Gregmal]

On 2/2/2023 at 9:40 AM, LC said:

Greg we’re gonna need pictures of this 20-30% commitment to alcoholism. Congrats on the new digs- I would guess you don’t end up being the only COBF member who settles in JOE land!

Half dozen by noon?(1 pm given the time difference)…yes we can courtesy of the fine folks at The Pearl.

 

 

[gfp]

Oh man, 5v crimp with exposed fasteners?  I thought for sure this was a standing seam quality property lol...

[LC]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Half dozen by noon?(1 pm given the time difference)…yes we can courtesy of the fine folks at The Pearl.

 

Go get em tiger!! 

[Spooky]

Bought a starter position in Citibank, GVLU ETF and some more VOO

[Monsieur_dee]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Half dozen by noon?(1 pm given the time difference)…yes we can courtesy of the fine folks at The Pearl.

 

 

Congrats! 

[DooDiligence]

1 hour ago, Spooky said:

Bought a starter position in Citibank, GVLU ETF and some more VOO

 

Same. I'm not a wiggle watcher but if this follows recent trends I'll be happy to make it a 3% position as it drops.

 

I read the entire Citi thread over the past week. Thanks to all the contributors. Misery loves company.

[Eng12345]

CPNG & C

 

CPNG is my largest position in my taxable account and keeps growing...opportunities to buy keep presenting. 

 

C is now my third largest position.

 

Looking to get more SU but waiting on a bit more dip... 

 

I have to start deploying capital...my I'm 20% cash in my taxable account and due to annual bonus and overtime I expect my taxable account to double in value over the next 1-2 months

[n.r98]

Bought some SPB calls expiring July. Thinking of initiating a position in $CG at some point to play the alt inv space. 

[Saluki]

Added some TV and SWBI on the dip.  Placed a limit order for Fairfax India in my retirement account this morning, but it hasn't been filled

[Stuart D]

5 hours ago, n.r98 said:

Bought some SPB calls expiring July.

Nice!

I’m surprised this name doesn’t get more airtime. If the deal closes won’t they have more cash than market cap? Plus management previously said they would use the proceeds to buyback stock.

[StevieV]

6 hours ago, n.r98 said:

Thinking of initiating a position in $CG at some point to play the alt inv space. 

 

Why CG?  Seems like perhaps the cheapest but most uncertain among the big alts.

[n.r98]

1 hour ago, Stuart D said:

Nice!

I’m surprised this name doesn’t get more airtime. If the deal closes won’t they have more cash than market cap? Plus management previously said they would use the proceeds to buyback stock.

 

Yes they will. Stub co at 10x EBITDA yields $90 + share price as upside. 

 

Management guiding to 500m+ (inc 350m break fee) of cash inflow if deal breaks. But leverage is quite heavy here so a turn of EBITDA is equal to around $15 of stock price value so downside can be gnarly esp in current tape where market doesn't know how to capitalize earnings of these retailers; hence call options. 

Think their structural remedy case is q strong on variety of merits - have a look at this merger between UNH and Change where the DOJ lost. Assa has been doing roll up for years and used incisive language - DOJ is irrational and posturing; and Assa actually paying a hefty premium here (analysts were criticizing the multiple paid, a year back), so this isn't immediately accretive to the stock unlike for SPB. So their strong words really makes one go hmmmm
https://www.paulweiss.com/practices/litigation/antitrust/publications/takeaways-from-the-doj-s-unitedhealth-change-healthcare-merger-loss?id=44360

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by n.r98

[n.r98]

22 minutes ago, StevieV said:

 

Why CG?  Seems like perhaps the cheapest but most uncertain among the big alts.

Share price slightly stale but yeah, market seems to be implying that i) CG's BVPS is overstated (maybe too much exposure to CLO (?) ii) FRE is not worth a teen multiple.

 

But for i) if you discount BV by 50%, CG still trades at like 12-13x FRE. ii) So big qn is why the FRE trades here esp with mgmt guiding to 15% CAGR on it + room for margin expansion.

 

Sell side relentlessly belabors how cheap the stock is on the calls. New CEO has been announced so that should remove a leadership overhang. Re margins having room for improvement - currently theyre at 36% margins and theyre pushing for 40. BX sports 50+% and KKR sports 60%. Ares sports 40+%. Obv different type of AUM garners diff kinds of margins but seems like a nice r/r with lowest multiple + lowest margin. And they've actually expanded margins by 15+% over the last 5 years. But still doing more work.

[StevieV]

CG has filed an 8K about the new CEO's compensation package.  110% price appreciation in 5-years for the top incentive.

 

https://capedge.com/filing/1527166/0001527166-23-000007/CG-8K

 

 

[StevieV]

Carlyle Group (CG) reported this morning and is down pretty hard in the first couple minutes.  I haven't looked closely at the earnings yet, but $4.34/share in Distributable Earnings (DE) for 2022.  That is probably a bit of a cyclical high.  Let's say very, very roughly normalized to say $3.5/share.   On a $35 share price that's 10x normalized DE?  Certainly a very undemanding valuation.  We'll see what the new CEO can do.

[Saluki]

Added a little more SWBI on the dip.   Currently only 1/2 a position for me, but my cash is fully deployed  

[Red Lion]

3 hours ago, StevieV said:

Carlyle Group (CG) reported this morning and is down pretty hard in the first couple minutes.  I haven't looked closely at the earnings yet, but $4.34/share in Distributable Earnings (DE) for 2022.  That is probably a bit of a cyclical high.  Let's say very, very roughly normalized to say $3.5/share.   On a $35 share price that's 10x normalized DE?  Certainly a very undemanding valuation.  We'll see what the new CEO can do.

I think cg is a good buy here. Personally I would rather own apo and kkr even at a higher valuation, but I think cg has the most upside if they can steadily grow aum and move margins in line with their peers. So far they haven’t done either one, but maybe the new ceo will help. 

[Spekulatius]

Added to $CNC and just a bit to $BTI

[Intelligent_Investor]

Oaktree buying Adani bonds