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n.r98

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  1. I read through the comments on Whitman's books and wow, the sentiment... but maybe it's time to dust off "Distress Investing: Principles and Technique" for the coming cycle?
  2. Been buying $DCP. Another MLP company, probably gets taken out by PSX soon - read PSX latest Q3 transcript - almost seems like a 99.99% probability, big question is what's the premium? That's all a wild guess of course - SHLX was 23%, BKEP was like 50% +.. Simple back of the envelope - 8% normalized yield on 60% 2022 distributable cash flow = $47 per share. So maybe another 15-20% upside from here, downside is perhaps 10% (?) - PSX offered a zero premium bid in August. But given oil markets a lot stronger now than in Aug, maybe trades higher even. Seems like a nice uncorrelated sit.
  3. How are they putting up these crazy numbers in such a hostile environment, esp the high dd comp store sales? They're not a new brand either.
  4. Speaking about insurance companies - maybe $ARGO might interest you, still looking into it. Right off the bat, already trading at 0.6 BV despite making a division sale at 0.81 BV. Business has been trimming international divisions and current core US insurance biz has a combined ratio <100 whilst previously, blended combined ratio in the 120s. Activists just got on BoD and really pushing for a sale here it seems.
  5. Bought a little $KSS. Trading at trough P/E of 9-10x, average EPS was $4-5 pre COV and share count has reduced bigly so any reversion could bring this back up to $40-50? Also stock trades below BV which has never happened except at Covid troughs. This is the reversion to the mean story. Insiders just bought cum $1m worth of stock past week after whiff of a print. 7-8b real estate portfolio value. Perhaps mgmt extrapolated cov environment and thought stock should be worth oodles more but perhaps not anymore and be more willing to sell the co now? Idk. But seems like a decent r/r apart from the icky balance sheet.
  6. It's weird because he wasn't like this previously. Back in the mid 2000s, u can track his 13F and turnover was not this high, some stocks lasted multiple quarters etc. But now, it's literally a full portfolio turnover every q.
  7. Herbalife? Stock got killed on declining volumes v 2021 and guiding to a full year decline in volumes and revenue. But guiding adj EPS of 3.50-4? Their adjustments are not egregious so even taking low end of guidance is 6.5x P/E or with 700m of guided EBITDA, and 4.5b of EV, 6.5x EBITDA - both measures at low end of historical range. Share cannibal, FCF generative and good level of insider buying last few months - seems like what matters is whether volume declines will stabilize and eventually return to growth - insiders seem to agree that headwinds are temporal.
  8. What's the gameplan? Is it a dejavu trade like last Q or more a mid/lt hold.
  9. Some updates.. JD Sports(retailer) now up 20% since 27/6... was quite too cheap and still pretty cheap given their leadership position in athleisure. Certain retailers bought right seem to do pretty well. Wrks.ln (retailer) - insider Carolyne just purchased a couple grand of stock, volume increased lately on said news. Stock still trades at close to 1x EBITDA. Ptec (not retailer) - stock climbing after arbs dumped stock upon TTB walking. Rumours that JKO wants to make a bid but the price action seems to point to incremental buyers due to relative undervaluation (?). Other interesting ideas that could be bought on weakness - $DOCS (Dr Martens) - strong revenue growth over long period of time - question is, what's their secret sauce? I think fashion retailers with conservative b/s can survive the fashion troughs, revamp themselves and survive a lot longer than people think; ofc not long term holds but tradeable. Some US ideas - A&F has revamped itself to remain relevant and despite poor cap alloc (repo shares at much higher prices), think this trades at a low 2-3x normalized EBITDA. $LEVI is interesting too, like Dr Martens, has a long history and could probably be bought on weakness - is unlike A&f though as I think they're less exposed to fashion cyclicals.
  10. $PTEC, TTB walks away - can see why in hindsight. But latest RNS shown great results for PTEC and an extremely low valuation; bidding war also proves asset is worth more ££.
  11. Heavy insider buying at $ARKR, anyone has some snap thesis/pitfalls on this?
  12. Not an expert here but given the duopolistic dynamics that have been ongoing for quite a while, why haven't prices been raised already, to the point of free cash flow positivity for both players? And if they were warring, what would make them "collaborate" eventually? Also, the delivery business seems like a very competitive one with thin margins and if Uber determines to make it big, would it then be a huge cost center for them? Sorry for bombarding.
  13. What is your thought process with Uber here? Flow reversals?
  14. Rarely binary. But current cycle looks interesting vs previous cycles - strong balance sheets and cash flows and at 3-4x multiples. If underlying commod remains strong, could easily net higher $ from here and if sentiment returns, another oomph from the multiple expansion. Also oil e.g. doesnt have to be much higher, around these prices is perfect; higher prices only seem to incentivize swifter transitions and political pressures. But maybe this pov is too simplistic and some other pig has said this before.
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