n.r98

what's ze tldr

sorryyyy sleepy dragon haha

Strong view merger closes so sold my 25 Jan JBLU calls and closed out my SAVE option positions for March and added more to SAVE (stock as well to avoid option risk of delay or recuts) just like sleepydrag. Fings crossed

Not to throw in another useless thread into the sea of COBF topics but I cant help but notice that Elliot's activisms have worked out incredibly well. I mean for one, $CRM has performed absolutely well since the whole basic cost cutting thesis and PINS hasnt done too bad since Elliot refreshed the board. Ofc, there are factors at work here and CRM is defo part of the tech rally. But it's not only confined to tech. Look at NRG energy - been on an absolute tear since the Elliot letter in June - and CCI has rocketed off the bottom (this is still fresh). PSX is also now embroiled with Elliot. Was thinking maybe we should have a discussion on Elliot's activist stonks - because this sure as hell seems like a profitable pond to fish in of late.

Bought some SUMO

Bought some GLOP and TBPH. TBPH has some activists involved; cash, CVRs and stake in key drug Yupelri more than covers the stock price. New drug Ampre now in phase 3 could easily be worth >$5/share even on pretty conservative assumptions. Business is trimming down staff, shutting majority of their research programs and returning capital to shareholders with a planned 170m to be returned by end of this year which should add about 10% on top of the total value of the firm. Irenic capital writing that letter was probably trying to highlight where Wally is rather than admonish management; don't see why some larger firm doesn't offer a quick premium to the extant stock price and take the remaining upside for free.

mateeeeeeeee

Don't have much knowledge in this space but what are the probabilities that CG tries to sell itself to a bigger player like Brooksfield for e.g.? Why can't that happen? Brooksfield did acquire Oaktree Cap Mgmt a couple years back after all. Some other catalysts not oft mentioned re this space is S&P inclusion - the firms have slimmed their share structures etc. Also @StevieV, think Kew left because he wasn't granted the pay package he demanded https://www.ft.com/content/0d0187d3-e0fb-4e87-bbfb-2e63f467f9f4

Share price slightly stale but yeah, market seems to be implying that i) CG's BVPS is overstated (maybe too much exposure to CLO (?) ii) FRE is not worth a teen multiple. But for i) if you discount BV by 50%, CG still trades at like 12-13x FRE. ii) So big qn is why the FRE trades here esp with mgmt guiding to 15% CAGR on it + room for margin expansion. Sell side relentlessly belabors how cheap the stock is on the calls. New CEO has been announced so that should remove a leadership overhang. Re margins having room for improvement - currently theyre at 36% margins and theyre pushing for 40. BX sports 50+% and KKR sports 60%. Ares sports 40+%. Obv different type of AUM garners diff kinds of margins but seems like a nice r/r with lowest multiple + lowest margin. And they've actually expanded margins by 15+% over the last 5 years. But still doing more work.

Yes they will. Stub co at 10x EBITDA yields $90 + share price as upside. Management guiding to 500m+ (inc 350m break fee) of cash inflow if deal breaks. But leverage is quite heavy here so a turn of EBITDA is equal to around $15 of stock price value so downside can be gnarly esp in current tape where market doesn't know how to capitalize earnings of these retailers; hence call options. Think their structural remedy case is q strong on variety of merits - have a look at this merger between UNH and Change where the DOJ lost. Assa has been doing roll up for years and used incisive language - DOJ is irrational and posturing; and Assa actually paying a hefty premium here (analysts were criticizing the multiple paid, a year back), so this isn't immediately accretive to the stock unlike for SPB. So their strong words really makes one go hmmmm https://www.paulweiss.com/practices/litigation/antitrust/publications/takeaways-from-the-doj-s-unitedhealth-change-healthcare-merger-loss?id=44360

Bought some SPB calls expiring July. Thinking of initiating a position in $CG at some point to play the alt inv space.

Approx 20% up on a low 6 fig portfolio. Losses were severed quick as the theses were disproved and the momentum pushed em down - PAH3, SIX; winners were scaled up into w incremental info and momentum- OXY.WS, IPCO, TWTR, BJ- with some end year wins (VRE was a pot of gold) thanks to the very intelligent people on this forum; am immensely grateful for all your opinions + willingness to respond to even my stupidest of questions and have learnt a lot just from reading the discussions. Neither intelligence nor diligence has inoculated anyone from the caprice of the market gods but w COBF, at least the odds are slightly better :D. Here's to a prosperous 2023 for everyone and I hope to be able to contribute some profitable ideas soon rather than a bunch of duds :////

Thanks for the informative responses - wish everyone a great (maybe debaucherous?) New Year in advance. Let's get em benjamins for 2023!

interested to hear the bull case and risks as well. Is the rise in interest rates not a headwind for PE?

Sturgill Simpson's "Sound and Fury" with the anime movie overlay is pretty dope; can be found on Netflix if im not wrong.