Stuart D

Change of tune from chevron CEO, now saying oil markets might now be ok until September.

What you’re saying makes sense. Both sides can hold on for a while. Continued oil draws eventually drives oil prices way up. I’m sceptical of the US’s stomach for massively higher prices but then again, I also thought Trump would have bailed out ~1-month ago and I was wrong on that.

Not open by the end of June, that’s 8-wk’s of ~20m barrel draws in the US, ~160m total. Assuming last week is the new norm (not sure if it is). That’s crazy & can’t (or won’t) happen right?

Thank you - I’ll add him as a follow on Twitter.

-20m barrel draw last week. Clearly not sustainable. I’m amazed Trump hasn’t declared victory and retreated from Iran completely. Maybe Iran will concede, but if they don’t, what is trump going to do to fix this (oil crisis)?

20m bbl draw last week. Not sustainable, so something’s got to give.

Shouldn’t this chart alone (new inventory low’s) be sending crude prices to all time high’s? And the counter case? Iran immediately surrenders and guarantees permanent SoH peace, the US and NATO sweep all mines, production restarts and increased global production immediately restarts and restocks inventories? @cubsfan, appreciate the pushback. My timeline is very biased towards ‘oil prices will be higher’, so im keen to hear other views.

Is Iran running out of money? I read somewhere (probably twitter) they had months of oil already on the water - it should keep the cash flowing for quite some time.

From this chart +1b barrels (7,800mb pre-covid compared to 8,800mb peak covid), was enough to send oil to $0/bbl. At some point the lower inventories will send prices way higher. Is that point -1b barrels? (6,800mb?). I have no idea.

~10m bpd offline and oil isn’t >$250/bbl. Really makes you question the oil investment thesis.

Those mines are an issue though. Cheap to plant, expensive to remove?

Is there any double counting with ETF’s?

I'm not following it closely - is this related to Iran?

This is a good point. Reminds me of the Buffett AGM where he called out none of the top 10 names from the index 30-yrs ago bring in the top 10 today. Highlighting the benefits of index’s rotating in and out of names.

Yes, 100% agree