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Stuart D

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  1. I would avoid it. Anything in hydrocarbon exploration and drilling is going to get fucked. Might be worth looking at the bonds ranking ahead of BRK’s $10b preferred stock. From memory I think the debt maturing 2022 was selling for 60c.
  2. By my calcs. in 2001 Buffet bought Petro china at a price of: $2.2 (not including leverage) per Barrel of Oil equivalent (proven), or $3.3 (including leverage) per Barrel of Oil equivalent (proven). However, if we take inflation into consideration the 2001 prices equate to the following 2020 prices: $3.49 (no leverage) / BOE proven $5.24 (including leverage) / BOE proven Today's prices are very similar: $2.6 (no leverage) / BOE proven. (cheaper today than 2001) $6.0 (including leverage) / BOE proven. (more expensive today than 2001) note: This is just looking at the price to purchase Petro China's proven reserves. All feedback welcome (the more brutal the better). Keen to learn more about oil companies.
  3. Very simplistic, low-iq analysis here. Just taking the forward pe (mentioned in the other comments above) and saying if there was no decline/growth it would be a 20yr wait to get the market cap back in earnings. I’m not smart enough to know if the earnings will grow, decline or flatline so V is in the too hard basket for me.
  4. Where are you getting the forward earnings #? Is that consensus earnings? Your estimate of future earnings? Analyst estimates for 2021 before this corona virus situation. In my view next year earnings may be impaired but earning power is not. Betting this will be the first ones to recover when things go back to normal. I see this and MA as a royalty on GDP and Inflation. Terminal growth is nominal GDP + any pricing power they may want to exert Love the business but struggle with pe=20. If I paid the $340b market cap today, I’d be waiting until 2040 to get my investment back in earnings. Will visa be around in 2040? and will they have averaged $17b/yr (for 20yrs) in earnings? Maybe yes, maybe no. It’s a tough one for me...
  5. 9628 - San Holdings inc. Largest funeral services provider in Japan (source: https://www.capitalisticman.com/profiting-from-death-global-funeral-industry-overview-and-analysis/) Shares outstanding: 11,166,249 Price: ¥1,101 / share M.cap: ¥12.3b Total liabilities: ¥4.3b Cash: ¥5.3b A few other assets up their sleeve as well. Profit: ¥1.5 (2018), ¥2.1b (2019) This may be morbid, but we could expect their profits to grow short term (virus) and long term (relatively old population).
  6. Australia: https://www.asx.com.au/ Canada: https://www.sedar.com/issuers/issuers_en.htm HK: https://www.hkexnews.hk/index.htm (also useful: http://www.aastocks.com/en/default.aspx ) Japan: https://www.kaijinet.com/jpExpress/ South Korea: http://englishdart.fss.or.kr/dsbd002/main.do UK: https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/search/companies USA: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html I'll add more as I find them. Feel free to add to the list!
  7. Thanks for posting. 7628 seems cheap. Market cap = $19.1 billion (the number on google finance is $21b, but I think they are including treasury stock?) Cash = $20b, total liabilities = $10b, net income ~ $3 to $4 b / year. Obviously they'll get hit hard by a slow-down in the auto-market, but it looks like they are built to last. Any thoughts on this one in particular?
  8. The Rebel Allocator by Jacob L. Taylor.
  9. Even back in the $8.40s SMTA still looks cheapish to me. Not hard at all to come up with an expected distribution figure of over $9, even using conservative assumptions. How did you go with SMTA? Looks as though the distribution has been paid (either that or there is some catastrophe causing a 90% drop).
  10. Same here. I suspect the pot. SEC action may scare some investors away from dark stocks and cause some selling. I am happy to oblige and provide liquidity if the price is right. Not much public information out for NSYC, though from the Seeking Alpha post in Feb, 2019 it sounds very interesting - especially at a market cap of $9m. I emailed the company to see if they'll send annual reports on request. I don't like my chances, but it's worth a try.
  11. @Orchard, @Cigarbutt, @Cardboard ~ thanks for your comments, much appreciated!
  12. Ah, A friend has just explained to me that you can buy shares through a broker, that broker can go bankrupt the next week and it doesn’t matter because you still own the shares. The certificate the broker sent you saying you own them is all that counts. You could take that certificate to another broker and they could sell the shares for you. Is this right? Thanks,
  13. My concern is that if my broker goes bankrupt, it might be difficult to recover my shares (that I have bought using their platform). For Australian equities I am using one of our large banks brokerage services because that feels safe. Since joining the CoBF I have discovered a myriad of interesting Canadian investments (thank you!). Most Australian brokers don't offer access to Canada, so I'm looking for a safe/reliable broker that does. Firms such as CMC Markets have heaps of good reviews, but with their emphasis on CFD trading they kind of feel like a casino and if they went bankrupt I think I would have a difficult time getting my money back. Any recommendations on a safe broker to use for non-Canadian Residents who want to buy Canadian Equities?
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