Political Posts

[alpha]

45 minutes ago, adventurer said:

How does Apple make such a big rebound though China got hit with even higher tariffs?

 

Same reason Delta pulled guidance but is up 23% in a day, it might be related to retail investors losing 25bn on leveraged ETFs alone last week

 

[Grenville]

lol…love how ex post folks think he had a plan…all this stuff hurts business confidence and folks trust in the dollar and the U.S. 

 

that won’t change until congress takes back some control and we have some balance. Heck tomorrow he could backtrack.

[John Hjorth]

@Eldad, @Malmqky and Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

What makes you confident posting so? -Approximately 10 hours from now, for me Copenhagen Stock exchange opens again, and from there, we likely go again.↔↨

[Sweet]

Are some people really victory lapping this based on they had a feeling this was near the bottom?  Lol.  Come on.

[Parsad]

10 hours ago, Castanza said:

Who was qualified to be President in this last election? I’m not sure we’ve had a “ qualified” candidate for a few decades. Kamala and Biden are about as qualified as Trump. We’re still waiting for Kamala to list something she’s accomplished other than Willie Brown. Biden is Trump on paper with a Jimmy Carter persona (and I say that lightly). 

 

Come back to the center….the water is warm. 

 

Oh, I agree!  The Dems have done an awful job for several years now, but it doesn't mean you pick an arsonist over a criminal lawyer!  Cheers!

[73 Reds]

5 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

@Eldad, @Malmqky and Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

What makes you confident posting so? -Approximately 10 hours from now, for me Copenhagen Stock exchange opens again, and from there, we likely go again.↔↨

John that's an interesting question.  But really, what makes anyone confident after each and every day the markets close that tomorrow won't bring some form of turmoil? 

[Sinbius]

Will China retaliate tomorrow? How do you see it play out?

 

It seems they are stuck in a loop...

Edited April 9, 2025 by Sinbius

[Eldad]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

@Eldad, @Malmqky and Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

What makes you confident posting so? -Approximately 10 hours from now, for me Copenhagen Stock exchange opens again, and from there, we likely go again.↔↨

I am not confident. It could have all been dumb luck or we could be about to take the next leg down. But if it turns out that China just told their best customer to F off while SE Asia was agreeing to deals, it would look pretty brilliant. 
 

Trumps entire political life has been people telling him he was crazy, stupid, etc. only to have been proven right many many times. 
 

 

 

[dealraker]

9 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

@Eldad, @Malmqky and Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

What makes you confident posting so? -Approximately 10 hours from now, for me Copenhagen Stock exchange opens again, and from there, we likely go again.↔↨

But now without tariffs the vast migration of business to the US is already history.  Sad, sad,sad...I was so hopeful.

[Simba]

So what next? Jeez this going to be a long 4 years let alone 90 days 

[Parsad]

53 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Fueled by the tears of the crybabies. It's always glorious, but this one was special. 

 

Greg, let's not go overboard.  Because then you have to include all the crybabies within the Trump administration who also were concerned on the President's tariff decisions.  In fact, if people didn't speak up, the President was going to sink the ship.  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

16 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

@Eldad, @Malmqky and Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

What makes you confident posting so? -Approximately 10 hours from now, for me Copenhagen Stock exchange opens again, and from there, we likely go again.↔↨

Volatility is just...nothing. But people are scared of it. If they wanna be scared that's OK. Vol is just alpha if you have any clue what to do with it. 

 

Also, to some, as we see, EVERYTHING is some super duper big deal....but it's not really. This wasn't that big a deal and certainly didn't warrant soooo much groveling. Was really just a classic short term correction. We've had em before and will have em again. Shouldn't really impact our focus as investors...unless we want it to. 

[thepupil]

I admire your confidence and equanimity while disagreeing with pretty much every word, but that’s why you’re richer than I am.

 

 

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said:

S&P 500's 9th largest daily increase since 1923.

Cool and that’s actionable how? The amount of valuable insights you’re ignoring from very wise and savvy investors on this forum is almost sad to watch. You’re an American with relatively low taxes, plenty of investment vehicles and easy access to markets. The world is your oyster, yet you want to drone on like the drunk at the local dive bar. At least take a short position and show us some skin in the game. 

 

If you missed the market’s 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. And missing the best 30 days would have reduced your returns by an astonishing 83%. 

https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/timing-the-market-is-impossible.html

[alpha]

3 hours ago, alpha said:

 

So China at 125%, all others 10% for 90 days, except Mexico and Canada which get an additional 10% on top of their existing tariffs.......

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/04/08/business/trump-tariffs-china-stock-market#df467314-c135-5297-bb7d-f23f99b1ca79

 

And now Canada and Mexico are excluded from today's 10% tariff (or at least Canada is) 

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-will-not-be-subject-to-new-10-tariff-says-ambassador-to-us/

[rogermunibond]

Friday starts q1 earnings so we will have lots of new datapoints shortly and 2025 forecasts.  I predict “tariff” will be the most mentioned word in cc. Thank god we don’t have to talk about LLMs, AI, and GPUs anymore.  

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 minute ago, rogermunibond said:

Friday starts q1 earnings so we will have lots of new datapoints shortly and 2025 forecasts.  I predict “tariff” will be the most mentioned word in cc. Thank god we don’t have to talk about LLMs, AI, and GPUs anymore.  

Yep. And now corporate managers have a very easy excuse that fell in their laps for missing guidance and/or revising it lower

[changegonnacome]

Agree @Gregmal re:Vol. Happy to have made a shit tonne of cash off this episode, thanks to my old vol friend OSTK now BYON and my new vol friend thanks to @Parsad in Macy's....the policy reversal ala Liz Truss was inevitable given the moves across stocks, bond & DXY were making early this week.........but sad for the country at same time......In no way can it be characterized a big picture 'win' to have equites, bonds & the US currency trade like an emerging market.

 

The sovereign entity Trump hurt the most thus far in this trade war episode has been the United States both in the short term (biz confidence) and the mid- to longer term (predictable reliable partner etc.).....playing high tariff chicken with every nation on earth at the same time....was just one of the dumbest pieces of statecraft I've EVER EVER seen in my lifetime. It was a pointless boondoggle that hurt domestic business confidence the most.

 

He also tipped his hand today......as blabbermouths tend do......

 

“The bond market is very tricky,” Trump said. “I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it’s beautiful — the bond market right now. But I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.”

 

The 10yr heading up into the high 4s and beyond scares the shit out this administration. The queasy persons he's referring to of course are himself and Bessent. We kind of know where the 'Trump put' is now....and it's in the bond market. Further blowing out the deficit by not actually reducing the deficit (as he's about to do with these tax cuts) is just going to increase that achilles heel further. DOGE nonsense and these tariff revenues are just not going to be enough to change the horrible budget math.

 

Anyway IMO the next dumb Trump thing you can make money on is the inevitable China reversal - the administration might talk about trade asymmetry between the US-China and how it will hurt them more than the US.....but what they wont talk about is something a little more unquantifiable and that's pain tolerance......like we know the story.... the Chinese are over there working 9-9-6 &  are saving I dunno 35% of their income.....these people know how to defer gratification & take some lumps....state surveillance & propaganda rammed down their throats will sure help keep the business community and society in-line through some bumps..........conversely Joe Sixpack has a negative savings rate of minus 2%, does 1.5hrs of real work a day for the three days a week he's in the office and spends the rest of the time complaining about how busy work is. Who's gonna crack first do you think when the going gets tough and inevitable job loses start rolling in on both sides?

 

Put it this way - Joe Sixpack will be overthrowing Captain Chaos way before Joe Shanghai will be overthrowing Xi....and for that reason your gonna be seeing a 360 on China fairly soon....trigger point here will be headline grabbing US job losses/company closures due to lack of inputs or their cost from China. I'll be watching Fox business (as the world's busiest man the President seems to have time to do) for when the inevitable rust belt CEO's start showing up on Maria Bartiromo pleading with the President for China tariff relief as their input costs go through the roof and the closures/job losses start rolling in.

 

President Xi knows what to do - give Captain Chaos some bright shiny PR nuggets he can 'sell' back to the MAGA base as a win.....something dumb like the last time around what was it then a TV factory?.....go bigger this time.....get Foxconn to build a phone factory in Akron,OH something tiny like 0.01% of the phones they assemble globally.....Trump can parade an American made iPhone around in the Rose garden in a years time and 'own the Libs' who said it could never be done here......sure Foxconn/Apple might have a negative 80% gross margin on these phones but who cares its a cheap tribute in the scheme of things to please 'the Don' and stop him being cray cray....Xi can tell him the TV ratings will be off the charts and his eyes will roll back in his head at the thought.

 

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

He also tipped his hand today......as blabbermouths tend do......

 

“The bond market is very tricky,” Trump said. “I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it’s beautiful — the bond market right now. But I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.”

Yup. I was talking with a bunch of people the last few days about how stupid tweeting that conspiracy theory about Trump tanking the markets to lower rates was, if indeed that was his plan. Markets have a way of testing out pain thresholds, and Trump wasn’t biting on the stock market declines because the bonds were doing what he wanted them to. It was no coincidence that the first 3 trading days after he couldn’t control his Twitter account the market pushed him to his threshold on rates. 

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Simba said:

So what next? Jeez this going to be a long 4 years let alone 90 days 

 

Make it 2 1/2 months, by now. 

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Volatility is just...nothing. But people are scared of it. If they wanna be scared that's OK. Vol is just alpha if you have any clue what to do with it. 

 

Also, to some, as we see, EVERYTHING is some super duper big deal....but it's not really. This wasn't that big a deal and certainly didn't warrant soooo much groveling. Was really just a classic short term correction. We've had em before and will have em again. Shouldn't really impact our focus as investors...unless we want it to. 

Volatility can be your best friend (or your worst enemy depending upon how you play it).  But this idea that nothing is a big deal is just false.  Just because it usually works out doesnt mean it's wrong to react.  Just like celebrating a massive up day today and pretending all is good is wrong when we still have huge tariffs in place globally and massive tariffs on one of our largest trading partners. Plus we have the ability to do it all again in 90 days. 

 

Because it almost always works itself out doesn't mean it's wise to ignore everything.  As my old.boss used to say "you can run through a dynamite factory with a lit match and just because you came out the other side doesn't mean you're not a moron"

[changegonnacome]

Trump now tweeting clips of one of his employees praising his courage & negotiating skills . You couldn't make it up. I'll give Trump a backhanded compliment - his ability to change his mind after doing something dumb and then spin it as win,  fooling himself first, then others, is quite impressive mental gymnastics especially for an 80yr old man with old ideas. I guess it's some kind of narcissistic ego protection circuit breaker he developed in the 1980’s as each public project he touched turned to bankruptcy and then dust…..but you know big picture being able to change one's mind:direction when the facts change is admirable whatever way its done.

 

 

 

Edited April 9, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Blake Hampton]

I'm not afraid of volatility.

 

This much volatility in the Treasury market is a different matter entirely. Hedge funds unwinding basis trades is what blew it all up in 2020, and now that same market is $8 trillion bigger. Trump is marching around like some retarded Godzilla, stomping on both markets and faith, without considering the consequences. Honestly, I don't think many of you have thought about them either.

[John Hjorth]

Unfortunately, at least for all of us here on CofB&F, except the poster, it has become clear to me, that a post in this topic disappeared, evaporated, suddenly, and in a disruptive way, not so long ago.

 

I think the overall message of the post was :

 

YouTube - NEA ZIXNH - [March 18^th 2014] : Bachman Turner Overdrive - You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet - 1974 Video Sound HQ

 

 

[Eldad]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Volatility can be your best friend (or your worst enemy depending upon how you play it).  But this idea that nothing is a big deal is just false.  Just because it usually works out doesnt mean it's wrong to react.  Just like celebrating a massive up day today and pretending all is good is wrong when we still have huge tariffs in place globally and massive tariffs on one of our largest trading partners. Plus we have the ability to do it all again in 90 days. 

 

Because it almost always works itself out doesn't mean it's wise to ignore everything.  As my old.boss used to say "you can run through a dynamite factory with a lit match and just because you came out the other side doesn't mean you're not a moron"

But what if you had the stats that said only 1% of all the people running through the dynamite factory every blew up and you got a massive reward for running through said factory? 
 

I enjoy talking about the macro stuff but IMO you have to get really dumb with bear markets. If you see big red numbers, you buy and think about it later. You predetermine a level to be out of cash and you follow the plan. Don’t even watch the news or read anything other than things concerning the individual companies you are buying.