Political Posts

[dwy000]

16 minutes ago, Eldad said:

But what if you had the stats that said only 1% of all the people running through the dynamite factory every blew up and you got a massive reward for running through said factory? 
 

I enjoy talking about the macro stuff but IMO you have to get really dumb with bear markets. If you see big red numbers, you buy and think about it later. You predetermine a level to be out of cash and you follow the plan. Don’t even watch the news or read anything other than things concerning the individual companies you are buying. 

Well there's the question because if that 1% hits, you're dead.  If you're willing to take a 1% chance at dying for the potential of an outsized return, good luck. Not something I'm willing to risk. As Bufffet says, why risk everything you already have for something you don't need. 

Edited April 9, 2025 by dwy000

[Mephistopheles]

Now that he solved the US economy, the narcissist goes back to fascism with his most appalling move thus far (this term):

 

 

[Eldad]

Just now, dwy000 said:

Well there's the question because if that 1% hits, you're dead.  If you're willing to take a 1% chance at dying for the potential of an outsized return, good luck. Not something I'm willing to risk. As Bufffet says, why risk everything for something you don't need. 

Maybe a bad metaphor on my part.
 

Unless you are selling everything at the start of the bear market, you are taking almost the same risk I am. You are trying to think through an impossible Macro puzzle and maybe save some cash for when it gets worse.

 

Make a plan to deploy cash in a pyramid, less in the beginning more at the end. The end should be a predetermined market level. Literally do not listen to anyone about the sky falling or even try to predict what will happen.

 

If you went to the grocery store and everything was 30% off would you thumb suck and try to figure out if it would be 40% tomorrow? 

[Malmqky]

40 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

I'm not afraid of volatility.

 

This much volatility in the Treasury market is a different matter entirely. Hedge funds unwinding basis trades is what blew it all up in 2020, and now that same market is $8 trillion bigger. Trump is marching around like some retarded Godzilla, stomping on both markets and faith, without considering the consequences. Honestly, I don't think many of you have thought about them either.

 

Consider investing in tobacco companies?

[villainx]

I’m just curious, stock prices are basically back to Friday’s level, right?

[Gregmal]

45 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Maybe a bad metaphor on my part.
 

Unless you are selling everything at the start of the bear market, you are taking almost the same risk I am. You are trying to think through an impossible Macro puzzle and maybe save some cash for when it gets worse.

 

Make a plan to deploy cash in a pyramid, less in the beginning more at the end. The end should be a predetermined market level. Literally do not listen to anyone about the sky falling or even try to predict what will happen.

 

If you went to the grocery store and everything was 30% off would you thumb suck and try to figure out if it would be 40% tomorrow? 

Yup. Buying a good business on a macro selloff is hardly risky or dangerous. People just get mental when they see reasons to be afraid. Frankly, many people even without reasons, are constantly manufacturing reasons to be afraid. You just can’t invest like that. There’s always something, somewhere, that’s gonna put food on the table, you just have to put in the work. 

[thepupil]

54 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Maybe a bad metaphor on my part.
 

Unless you are selling everything at the start of the bear market, you are taking almost the same risk I am. You are trying to think through an impossible Macro puzzle and maybe save some cash for when it gets worse.

 

Make a plan to deploy cash in a pyramid, less in the beginning more at the end. The end should be a predetermined market level. Literally do not listen to anyone about the sky falling or even try to predict what will happen.

 

If you went to the grocery store and everything was 30% off would you thumb suck and try to figure out if it would be 40% tomorrow? 

 

but if one can't time markets, why would one ever have any cash?

[Grenville]

Maybe he decided to pause so he could attend the Masters without folks bugging him about shit…you know he won his tournament 

[Pelagic]

Something I still haven't come up with a good answer for, why did China hit back so quickly. Every other country was sort of content to wait and see, sure the EU and I guess Canada to an even lesser extent gave some token responses, but China came right out swinging. They had to know Trump was looking to make an example and a direct response would get an even harsher response back. They're certainly capable of crafting something like the EU did where they tariff targeted imports, so why get into the tit for tat tariff raise game they did and more importantly why get into it so quickly? They say never wrestle with a pig, but China dove right in and ended up covered in mud, while Trump seems to have thoroughly enjoyed himself over the last few days.

 

Markets are euphoric on today's pause, rightfully so, but I think all of us would be saying wtf if liberation day's announcement was a blanket 10% rate on every country and a 125% rate on China. Better than what could have been, but today's pause only brings the average tariff rate down from 27% to 24% so not a ton of relief for domestic consumers. 

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, dwy000 said:

Well there's the question because if that 1% hits, you're dead.  If you're willing to take a 1% chance at dying for the potential of an outsized return, good luck. Not something I'm willing to risk. As Bufffet says, why risk everything you already have for something you don't need. 

It’s not a 1% chance of dying…it’s a 1% chance of being injured and having a 1-5 year recovery. I’ll take that risk any day of the week. 

[John Hjorth]

1 minute ago, Pelagic said:

Something I still haven't come up with a good answer for, why did China hit back so quickly. Every other country was sort of content to wait and see, sure the EU and I guess Canada to an even lesser extent gave some token responses, but China came right out swinging. They had to know Trump was looking to make an example and a direct response would get an even harsher response back. They're certainly capable of crafting something like the EU did where they tariff targeted imports, so why get into the tit for tat tariff raise game they did and more importantly why get into it so quickly? They say never wrestle with a pig, but China dove right in and ended up covered in mud, while Trump seems to have thoroughly enjoyed himself over the last few days.

 

Markets are euphoric on today's pause, rightfully so, but I think all of us would be saying wtf if liberation day's announcement was a blanket 10% rate on every country and a 125% rate on China. Better than what could have been, but today's pause only brings the average tariff rate down from 27% to 24% so not a ton of relief for domestic consumers. 

 

China was insulted by POTUS. That makes quite a difference to some perhaps robust trade talks. But POTUS doesen't even care if he has screwed up dearly in that regard, so the sh*t show just continues.

 

Did you expect anything different from that from a person of this format?

[Castanza]

23 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

but if one can't time markets, why would one ever have any cash?

For the psychological benefit of it. It gives you a buffer to capitalize on mistakes or take advantage of opportunity. Makes you feel less beholden to the moves of the market imo.
 

I heard this recently on a Morgan Housel podcast and I think it’s a good fit for what you’re asking. He summed it up much better than I could. 
 

Harry Markowitz won the Nobel prize in economics for exploring the mathematical trade off between risk and return. He was asked by the Wall Street Journal how he structured his own portfolio. Regardless of his work he went 50/50 bonds because his goal was to limit his future psychological grief in the market which would lead him to make poor decisions. 
 

Is it rational? No…but it is reasonable. 

 

Edited April 10, 2025 by Castanza

[KCLarkin]

8 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

 They say never wrestle with a pig, but China dove right in and ended up covered in mud, while Trump seems to have thoroughly enjoyed himself over the last few days.

 

Hmm... I don't think I'd call China a pig. But I'm not sure I'd want to wrestle with them. Remember when they took two Canadian hostages to strengthen their negotiating power?

 

There is a pretty good chance China has outmaneuvered trump here. If these 125% rates stick, they are going to be political suicide to Republicans. And the counter-tariffs will kill U.S. farms. Trump can probably get away with 50% tariffs but 125% is just too much to absorb. He is being too greedy.

 

No way this 125% rate lasts a month...

[changegonnacome]

Say what you will he’s one crazy old grandpa…..the funny and frustrating kind….the one you hate but you’ll kinda miss him when he’s gone. I’d prefer him back on TV where he belongs though-

 

[Pelagic]

3 minutes ago, KCLarkin said:

 

Hmm... I don't think I'd call China a pig. But I'm not sure I'd want to wrestle with them. Remember when they took two Canadian hostages to strengthen their negotiating power?

 

There is a pretty good chance China has outmaneuvered trump here. If these 125% rates stick, they are going to be political suicide to Republicans. And the counter-tariffs will kill U.S. farms. Trump can probably get away with 50% tariffs but 125% is just too much to absorb. He is being too greedy.

 

No way this 125% rate lasts a month...

The expression goes the other way, it's the pig that enjoys wrestling in the mud, and Trump is fully enjoying the moment - check out some of the clips of his NRCC speech last night.

 

Agreed that 125% doesn't seem sustainable given how interwoven our economy is with theirs.

[dwy000]

18 minutes ago, Castanza said:

It’s not a 1% chance of dying…it’s a 1% chance of being injured and having a 1-5 year recovery. I’ll take that risk any day of the week. 

It could also be a 25% chance.  

[Castanza]

4 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Say what you will he’s one crazy old grandpa…..the funny and frustrating kind….the one you hate but you’ll kinda miss him when he’s gone. I’d prefer him back on TV where he belongs though-

 

Kramer is that you? 

[changegonnacome]

7 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Kramer is that you? 

[Eldad]

28 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

but if one can't time markets, why would one ever have any cash?

Yes good point. I am talking out of both sides of my mouth I guess.
 

I think trailing PE in December for SPY was like 30+. I’m always going to at least save my new cash at that point. Also, it’s a great time to question, why do I own this? and cut if it doesn’t make sense. Then my understanding of the history of down markets shows if you concentrate your buying between 10-30% down you will not usually miss much more on the downside. We only got to 20% so far on this one. 

 

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

They updated the list. See a trend?

 

The largest daily gains and the largest daily losses are often very close together.

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Castanza said:

Cool and that’s actionable how? The amount of valuable insights you’re ignoring from very wise and savvy investors on this forum is almost sad to watch. You’re an American with relatively low taxes, plenty of investment vehicles and easy access to markets. The world is your oyster, yet you want to drone on like the drunk at the local dive bar. At least take a short position and show us some skin in the game. 

 

If you missed the market’s 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. And missing the best 30 days would have reduced your returns by an astonishing 83%. 

https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/timing-the-market-is-impossible.html

How about missing the worst 10 days and missing the best 10 days? I bet you come out ahead. They are also typically very close together too, so not quite as unrealistic as it seems.

[Spekulatius]

42 minutes ago, KCLarkin said:

 

Hmm... I don't think I'd call China a pig. But I'm not sure I'd want to wrestle with them. Remember when they took two Canadian hostages to strengthen their negotiating power?

 

There is a pretty good chance China has outmaneuvered trump here. If these 125% rates stick, they are going to be political suicide to Republicans. And the counter-tariffs will kill U.S. farms. Trump can probably get away with 50% tariffs but 125% is just too much to absorb. He is being too greedy.

 

No way this 125% rate lasts a month...

This basically means that exports from China to the USA will collapse. These  tariffs are a trade embargo basically.

[Castanza]

17 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

How about missing the worst 10 days and missing the best 10 days? I bet you come out ahead. They are also typically very close together too, so not quite as unrealistic as it seems.

Not sure, but that’s impossible to put into practice. The market has more up days than down over time. I think that’s the best you can do.

[Simba]

POST FROM WALL STREET BETS

 

"The trade war against Canada/Mexico started in Jan and 3 months later there is no agreement. What makes people think the trade war against 70 countries will end in 90 days? Sounds like Trump is pushing back by his financiers but this is far from over IMO. This just sounds like his typical bullshit"

Edited April 10, 2025 by Simba

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, Grenville said:

Maybe he decided to pause so he could attend the Masters without folks bugging him about shit…you know he won his tournament 

 

He's won three tournaments in a row.  The guy is good...Scottie Scheffler good!  He's built like the statue of David...just a tremendous athlete.  They look like twins!  Cheers!