Simba

For real - I just scanned the last 2 pages hoping for some ground breaking analysis to make some alpha ($) ...

Agree - this is obviously a policy error from the US Administration - the longer this shitshow lasts, the weaker the US gets - eventually the US Admin will cave in Only a matter of time ... but an old quote .. the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. While I expect a reversal, I heed the above old age advice.

Markets in turmoil - America is winning !

The Art of the Deal we got em (Gyna) checks 401k - looks like Mr market does not agree

POST FROM WALL STREET BETS "The trade war against Canada/Mexico started in Jan and 3 months later there is no agreement. What makes people think the trade war against 70 countries will end in 90 days? Sounds like Trump is pushing back by his financiers but this is far from over IMO. This just sounds like his typical bullshit"

So what next? Jeez this going to be a long 4 years let alone 90 days

This is just ridiculous- this is a spin the wheel- where the wheel seems to be shifting pretty frequently Now tariffs are paused up to 10% for 90 days? What comes in 89 days ?

This is painful to watch. If there is no deal with major trading partners, and tariffs war stays in effect, there will be more pain ahead IMO in markets. Two back to back -5% days? Market is saying something . And it’s loud and clear. Unlike Covid which had an end game (vaccine), I’m not an economist but did take economics 101, and without relief - what is the end game? This just feels like a massive policy error (although we won’t know until hindsight but the market clearly isn’t buying it) just my 2c

Couple things come to mind on tariffs which I have not followed - but certainly feel compelled to due to being long stocks. 1. How long could tariffs last? If it’s only 4 years - do they actually matter significantly on valuations ? 2. The tariffs appear completely arbitrarily - does anyone actually believe these will be implemented ? 3. How much of the tariffs is priced in at this point in the markets? Are we 10%, 25%, 50%, 99% of the way there? 4. Does anyone actually believe that Buy America won’t prevail in the next 5-10 years? As buffet once said “when it rains gold, pull out the bucket” - I wonder …

If you bought the S&P 500, basically pre covid high (i.e. Feb 2020) and held till today, your annual return w/ dividend, is 7.5-8%? (using round figures, assuming minimal taxes). That assumes round trip from peak mania to today. Gold is up a similar portion, while long-term bonds seem to be down. IMO 8% historical return is in-line with historical, and I'll take that compounded over the next 50 years, easy.

Anyone have a view of Canadian Real Estate? Long-term still a good buy?

IMO it will take a while to adopt at the corporate level, and in the near term, a lot of low level tasks IMO will be automated.

The market current trades at ~17.5x (5.7% earnings yield). Not bad. In a world where 10YT yields 3.5%, is a 5.7% earnings yield a decent purchase ?

Yup good ole Bill Ackman ... good ole the world is falling.

Nice find.

There is a lot of talk about recession.. believe this will result in a bit of volatility for the foreseeable future. Suggest to make use of this volatility - i.e. trader's market. I also think inflation is going to be overblown in the long-run, and like all bear markets, this one shall end.. eventually.

Yes to all your points. Takes a heck of a lot of time + effort (almost a full-time job in of itself to be honest). Riding a trend is fun, just hop on the F*** off, before the station peaks (i.e. when you have 10M Redditors all-in on meme stocks, that's your sign to head for the exits).

wait your telling me I shouldn't pay up for tech companies valued on TAM on a revenue basis, and on 2048 Adj. Earnings before all expenses, when the 10Y is at 4%

Feel like sayin' it “There's always a bull market somewhere."

It's tough to do... as driven by so few companies (Apple 11%+ weight, Microsoft ~12% weight)

I like this view. My own take to add (all anecdotal) 1. Stocks are emotionally hardest to own after a bear market (as we had in 2022) 2. Stocks usually perform the best after large sell offs 3. Market rallies tend to be swift (as we have already seen YTD, with S&P 500 up 8% in a short 31 days to start the year). I don't really follow inflation, but was never in the camp this was going to kill stocks, and I generally believe that corporations pass on prices to consumers, and in fact benefit earnings, so owning stocks is an inflation protector (and historically stocks returned above inflation anyways).

Stocks have been absolutely pummeled for 2022, so wouldn't be surprised to see the worst performers bounce back in 2023.

IMO the best outcome is a long played out bottom - which is exactly what's happening. We've been in a downtrend for almost 10 months now. The GFC was ~1.5 years in downtrend, while the dot-com bubble was ~2.0 years Hard to think this lasts more than dot-com bubble (IMO), unless some unknown macro factors throws a wrench into the mix.

I love markets like this. IMO fear + uncertainty + large price declines -> create the room for investment opportunities. I'm not excited buying equities when crowds are euphoric. I'm excited by markets charactered by panic. Names are starting to be valued as they should be. This is a slow bottom grind (with slow change in investment psychology). Reminds me exactly like 2008 of how everyone was fatigued by new lows. Seeing 3000 price targets on the S&P excite me. I hope this does happen, because I'll be buying. For those in the accumulation phase, IMO lower prices are beneficial Rather be buying a market at fair value than overvalued

This is brutal.