Simba

For real - I just scanned the last 2 pages hoping for some ground breaking analysis to make some alpha ($) ...

Agree - this is obviously a policy error from the US Administration - the longer this shitshow lasts, the weaker the US gets - eventually the US Admin will cave in Only a matter of time ... but an old quote .. the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. While I expect a reversal, I heed the above old age advice.

Markets in turmoil - America is winning !

The Art of the Deal we got em (Gyna) checks 401k - looks like Mr market does not agree

POST FROM WALL STREET BETS "The trade war against Canada/Mexico started in Jan and 3 months later there is no agreement. What makes people think the trade war against 70 countries will end in 90 days? Sounds like Trump is pushing back by his financiers but this is far from over IMO. This just sounds like his typical bullshit"

So what next? Jeez this going to be a long 4 years let alone 90 days

This is just ridiculous- this is a spin the wheel- where the wheel seems to be shifting pretty frequently Now tariffs are paused up to 10% for 90 days? What comes in 89 days ?

This is painful to watch. If there is no deal with major trading partners, and tariffs war stays in effect, there will be more pain ahead IMO in markets. Two back to back -5% days? Market is saying something . And it’s loud and clear. Unlike Covid which had an end game (vaccine), I’m not an economist but did take economics 101, and without relief - what is the end game? This just feels like a massive policy error (although we won’t know until hindsight but the market clearly isn’t buying it) just my 2c

Couple things come to mind on tariffs which I have not followed - but certainly feel compelled to due to being long stocks. 1. How long could tariffs last? If it’s only 4 years - do they actually matter significantly on valuations ? 2. The tariffs appear completely arbitrarily - does anyone actually believe these will be implemented ? 3. How much of the tariffs is priced in at this point in the markets? Are we 10%, 25%, 50%, 99% of the way there? 4. Does anyone actually believe that Buy America won’t prevail in the next 5-10 years? As buffet once said “when it rains gold, pull out the bucket” - I wonder …

If you bought the S&P 500, basically pre covid high (i.e. Feb 2020) and held till today, your annual return w/ dividend, is 7.5-8%? (using round figures, assuming minimal taxes). That assumes round trip from peak mania to today. Gold is up a similar portion, while long-term bonds seem to be down. IMO 8% historical return is in-line with historical, and I'll take that compounded over the next 50 years, easy.

Anyone have a view of Canadian Real Estate? Long-term still a good buy?

IMO it will take a while to adopt at the corporate level, and in the near term, a lot of low level tasks IMO will be automated.

The market current trades at ~17.5x (5.7% earnings yield). Not bad. In a world where 10YT yields 3.5%, is a 5.7% earnings yield a decent purchase ?

Yup good ole Bill Ackman ... good ole the world is falling.

Nice find.