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Simba

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  1. Relax. Just buy some digital rocks using ETH for $2M, eat some popcorn at AMC and play video games in at Gamestop 2021 Investing in a nutshell .
  2. I spend 2 minutes googling the "Journal of Infection", and could not find a Wikipedia page. Furthermore, both the actual website and study look like it was made in MS Paint in 1993 I was going to read the study, but realized I don't need to. I've read enough data that supports the vaccine. showPdf (journalofinfection.com) Home Page: Journal of Infection
  3. Hmm ya certainly looks interesting, especially with the price trading close to $20.00
  4. It's 6-month emergency fund (through the March 2020 crash I realized I needed a minimum cash and couldn't tolerate volatility of 100% equities) + some cash for a down payment for RE in the next 12 months. The 6-month emergency fund, I'm OK yielding savings account yield (e.g. 1%). I do realize cash has been a drag on investment returns especially with the SPX approaching 4400. I'm willing to sell the RE downpayment portion at a -10% loss if need be. I also figure I could always apply for margin if the market did turn south and needed to sell for the RE Downpayment. I know they say don't invest your down payment, but it's such a drag on returns. Which is why I'm looking for lower volatility / lower return scenarios.
  5. I have some bond investment allocation, but not sure how to properly invest this amount. - I can put this amount in a corporate bond fund, but it does not earn much yield. - I can put this amount in a savings account, but now it's even worse. - I can allocate this to equities, but then this defeats the purpose. Thus far, I've allocated a bit to high yield bonds, but obviously this is like 10% of my bond allocation as it has equity like volatility in a downturn (otherwise would put more). Thoughts?
  6. Nice Analysis!! Very clear.
  7. Anyone have a link to Liberty's newsletter on this? I create a folder for each stock, and just stick everything in there. Not the most organized but I know it's all there.
  8. Let's assume - Bitcoin replaces the dollar What price is bitcoin at these levels? Is it near the same market cap as US Dollar in circulation? Wouldn't the government start regulating it at that time. Won't this all end badly, with the government coming in and banning / taxing the shit out of bitcoin?
  9. The $XRT is up 105%+ since the Feb2020 highs, while the Nasdaq 100 is only up +38% (where retail was closed, and technology was massively adopted). How did the retail ETF crush the QQQ? Even Guess Jeans is +28% from pre-Covid levels. Cheesecake factory +46% from pre-covid highs. Pull up charts of Abercrombie, Gap, and the broader retail ETF, XRT, and you kind of scratch your head. What is going on? Can retail companies really be worth 2x more than they were worth in Feb 2020? This is wacky if you ask me. Some of the composition of the index (auto retailers -18% of index and eRetailers - 18% of index) had a tailwind, but the rest? This is almost like JP Morgan reaching pre-GFC high before names that werent as much affected by GFC in 2010 period.
  10. Thanks - this was good - been a while I heard a good podcast.
  11. 100% agree. Some of my random musings on BTC... 1. There is enough people (i.e. demand), today, to support a price of $50,000. As that is the price. 2. While BTC has no intrinsic value, it's network effects are immense, one can even argue reflexivity is happening 3. PayPal and Square, two major fintech companies have entered the space. It is only a matter of time as others follow. 4. Will Bitcoin ever reach $0? Do you think the probability of reaching $0, is higher than lower than 1 year ago, 3 years ago, 5 years ago? Every day that passes by, that user adoption increases, that technology increases, etc...Or is the probability decreasing every day that BTC goes to 0$? 5. How does one play bitcoin? By the time BTC gets full adoption, there will be no upside. Putting 1% of your portfolio, will that really make a difference to it? 6. In order for TSLA to buy $1.5B of bitcoin, they clearly was a lot of thought that went into it. The complete 180 in 3 months time, suggests internally they were some discussions going on. (Perhaps at the Board level?) 7. Have we reached the tipping points, where BTC/ETH has won the crypto? History says otherwise. I still don't see why an alternative, better BTC, can't come up.
  12. Interesting concept. Clearly BTC/ETH have some incredible network effects at the moment. No doubt about that. IMO one aspect of bitcoins network effect is that it is heavily tied to it sustaining high returns. Higher returns beget new users, which results in higher returns, and it becomes a virtuous cycle upwards, a bit of what we are seeing today. (This is an oversimplification as obviously the technology is evolving, and more innovation / fintech / corporations have accepted crypto since BTC was first introduced) I predict that Bitcoin will require more and more user adoption (i.e. institutions) to sustain higher and higher prices. There are only 21M coins so it's a closed loop. I know none of us have the answer - but it seems almost too perfect if bitcoin becomes the winning crypto say in 2030. Elon Musk (as silly as he seems) has poked some legitimate holes in the bitcoin long thesis in recent days. I personally think were reaching a top in the next 12-24 months, if we have not reached it already. The crypto / NFT space is so red hot, it would really astonish me if these assets still go up another 200-300% from here. Maybe there is really that much money in the system, but I don't think so. Every asset class eventually tops when it is not supported by fundamentals. This goes for gold, real estate, stocks, bonds, etc. I don't see why crypto would not face the same fundamentals as other asset classes. Right now, so many people think crypto can never fail. To quote Sir John Templeton, “The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it's different.”
  13. And the Dogefather has spoken... . Tesla suspended vehicle purchases with Bitcoin. Concerned about the environmental factors of BTC. Looking at other cryptocurrencies that uses 1% of the energy BTC does.
  14. "Do you want Tesla to accept Doge?" - Elon Musk (May 11 2021)
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