Political Posts

[Red Lion]

2 minutes ago, mcliu said:

So this whole thing was a set-up to put massive tariffs on China?

 

It sure feels like that, while scaring our allies into submission? 

[alpha]

 

So China at 125%, all others 10% for 90 days, except Mexico and Canada which get an additional 10% on top of their existing tariffs.......

 

Quote

In a strange turn of events, the president seems to have added another 10 percent tariff to Canada and Mexico. Asked earlier if the 10 percent tariff extended to those countries, Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said that it did. And a White House official clarified for me just now that that was the case. Previously, Canada and Mexico had been exempted from this round of “reciprocal” tariffs, though they still faced a 25 percent tariff that the president imposed last month on many of their goods.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/04/08/business/trump-tariffs-china-stock-market#df467314-c135-5297-bb7d-f23f99b1ca79

[rogermunibond]

[Blake Hampton]

https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/trad1224.pdf

[Blake Hampton]

By my calculations:

 

$549 B in tariffs on China + $283 B in tariffs on all other imports = $832 B in total tariffs.

 

$832 B in total tariffs ÷ $3,267 B in total imports = 25.5% effective tariff rate.

 

This doesn't account for the weird policies currently in place with Canada and Mexico. Also, much of the trade with China will likely shift to neighboring countries if these tariffs remain. The average applied tariff rate was around 2.5% last year, so this is still a massive increase. It certainly carries significant implications for prices. Additionally, this means economic war with China.

 

But the market is up—so that means we’re good.

 

Edited April 9, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[james22]

4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Go ahead, be long permanent tariffs and oil LOL

 

LOL

[Blake Hampton]

Boys, it's time to load up on dogshit. This sucker is about to RIP.

 

[John Hjorth]

I think I've never seen something anywhere similar to this - Copenhagen closed about 4 hours and 48 minutes ago :

 

[Pelagic]

And everyone was laughing at @Blake Hampton harping on Dimon's perspective when it ended up being the one thing that really mattered in affecting Trump's sentiment. Glad to see Bessent seems to have the reigns now.

 

 

[gfp]

7 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

I think I've never seen something anywhere similar to this - Copenhagen closed about 4 hours and 48 minutes ago :

 

 

Oh man, I've had two different share classes of the same stock close a trading day with, say, B shares up 3% and A shares down 4% - huge dollar amounts offsetting each other on the daily change - the exact same company and the exact same trading period!  Markets are wild

Edited April 9, 2025 by gfp

[Masterofnone]

5 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Oh man, I've had two different share classes of the same stock close a trading day with, say, B shares up 3% and A shares down 4% - huge dollar amounts offsetting each other on the daily change - the exact same company and the exact same trading period!  Markets are wild

I think it is due to short positions and frantic covering. For example BC is up 14%. Some hedge fund piled on on the down side and then came a whoopsy.

[adventurer]

How does Apple make such a big rebound though China got hit with even higher tariffs?

[John Hjorth]

12 minutes ago, gfp said:

Oh man, I've had two different share classes of the same stock close a trading day with, say, B shares up 3% and A shares down 4% - huge dollar amounts offsetting each other on the daily change - the exact same company and the exact same trading period!  Markets are wild

 

Yeah, but this was basically the same share, but at two different markets, where one market was closed, the other market was not closed by the time of the screen shot.

 

Just checking another one here - for my own personal purpose :

 

[Spekulatius]

Except for China, do we know which county has 10% and which has not? I am not clear about the EU. My guess is that even Trump does not know as he follows his instincts and makes stuff up as he goes.

 

I do think a lot of damage is being done economically because it is impossible to plan ahead, which means little gets done and lot of things get out on hold.

[John Hjorth]

32 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

And everyone was laughing at @Blake Hampton harping on Dimon's perspective when it ended up being the one thing that really mattered in affecting Trump's sentiment. Glad to see Bessent seems to have the reigns now. 

 So, basically, the eye lids on POTUS moved downwards, over the eyes of POTUS, to lubricate them, and up again. Anything really changed here? Any reigns moved here?

[Blake Hampton]

They updated the list. See a trend?

 

[John Hjorth]

29 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Except for China, do we know which county has 10% and which has not? I am not clear about the EU. My guess is that even Trump does not know as he follows his instincts and makes stuff up as he goes.

 

I do think a lot of damage is being done economically because it is impossible to plan ahead, which means little gets done and lot of things get out on hold.

 

This. The harm is likely already severely inflicted on all kinds of supply chains, because all of this makes everyone linger.

 

If you're a slave of your paycheck and working with procurement, why even consider to put your own butt on line [<- Christ, I think this tiny typo is the top of all my typos here on CofB&F - lol!!] on the line in this situation? Your boss may deem your doings both right and reckless in the situation at later moment, thereby flushing you down the drain.

Edited April 9, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Blake Hampton]

S&P 500's 9th largest daily increase since 1923.

[Paarslaars]

 

Next up:

 

 

Can't you just go back to messing with crypto Donald? 

[Eldad]

What a crazy ride. Only got to deploy half my cash. 
 

All of the crying over the reciprocal tariff formula. It was half-ass because it didn’t matter and was always a bluff. 
China was and is the main target. Hopefully we have deals in hand with all the SE Asian countries in anticipation of a huge amount of Chinese manufacturing moving South. 
 

I don’t really care for Emperor Trump and think Congress should claw back some of their lost power, but Trump has outfoxed the world enough times now to stop with the”Trump is an idiot with no plan” stuff. 

[Malmqky]

5 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

S&P 500's 9th largest daily increase since 1923.

Borderline technical analysis aka reading tea leaves.

[Malmqky]

2 minutes ago, Eldad said:

What a crazy ride. Only got to deploy half my cash. 
 

All of the crying over the reciprocal tariff formula. It was half-ass because it didn’t matter and was always a bluff. 
China was and is the main target. Hopefully we have deals in hand with all the SE Asian countries in anticipation of a huge amount of Chinese manufacturing moving South. 
 

I don’t really care for Emperor Trump and think Congress should claw back some of their lost power, but Trump has outfoxed the world enough times now to stop with the”Trump is an idiot with no plan” stuff. 

Agreed. There’s going to be a lot of money made this term for people who understand how Trump operates and his frameworks. Bring on the volatility!

[73 Reds]

6 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

They updated the list. See a trend?

 

A trend?  Sure - the S&P 500 went way higher every time thereafter.  When you are as young as you are, the trend does not get much more telling.

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Malmqky said:

Agreed. There’s going to be a lot of money made this term for people who understand how Trump operates and his frameworks. Bring on the volatility!

Fueled by the tears of the crybabies. It's always glorious, but this one was special. 

[mattee2264]

This isn't art of the deal. Trump panicked because bond markets turned ugly. 

 

Trade war with China + 10% across the board tariffs + sectoral tariffs still quite a bit of a headwind for markets. 

 

But I guess at least we know now that there is a Trump put.