Political Posts

[Luke]

15 minutes ago, tnp20 said:

Not splitting hairs but taking a pragmatic approach here .....

 

Long term China is screwed, why ? :-

(i) Demographics issue will catch up but with delay

(ii) Lack of basic freedoms and rights (property rights) that go hand in hand with a true capitalistic society

(iii) World's best talent wont move there (unless we make USA a right wing white suprematist shit hole that hates foreigners)

(iv) Its miltary wont be > US + alliances

(v) Yuan wont be the reserve currency because XJP's policies are ultimately contradictory to true open flows of capital

 

Short/Medium term I am bullish, why ?:-

(i) China has to play the game set by the west to make progress towards their 2035 goal - ie wont rock the boat near term

(ii) Urbanization is 65%, Korea and Japan is 80-90% so another decade or two of strong growth still in the tank...reforming the Hokou system and greater urbanization move frees up rural labor to mitigating aging working population

(iii) They will continue to open up their markets and economy - this is what they have to do to have any chance of Yuan being the replacement for the dollar.

(iv) Huge potential in domestic consumption and developing the larger middle class

(v) Valuations in China are very cheap

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lack of basic freedoms? I see Chinese citizens all over the world, traveling, doing happy selfies etc. They too have state capitalism but with a state that accepts and does more regulation. 

 

Demographics are an issue i agree, will monitor it closely. 

 

World best talent wont move there but spawns inside. And yeah, i think with all the hate against China, Chinese people don't feel particularly good in the US, didnt even Li Lu sponsor some foundation that fights against racism against asians?

 

 

 

[Luke]

8 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

one child policy ended in…2016!! And that is definitely not “one cherry picked thing” in chinas history. America is not perfect, far from it for sure. Plenty of skeletons in the closet. But if I have to chose I choose the USA x10000. 

You are willing to pick one atrocity the chinese did to make a case that China is horrible while ignoring all the other cherries of horrible acts by the US government. 

8 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

I have zero problems with Chinese people, I am not anti China, I’m anti CCP. Now you take that however you want. Either you say they are different things or they are the same. If you say they are the same then you are just reiterating the point. There is no freedom in China. 

I also have zero problems with americans, i was talking about the people in the US government. Never said those two are the same. If you really believe there is NO freedom in China i completely disagree, in fact, i see chinese people everywhere and they are not telling me what a horrible country it is and how opressed and suffering they are.

8 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

I can’t tell if you are more pro China or Anti US. You say you just want unbiased facts but then every post of yours, sometimes several in a row, are either bashing the US or advocating for how great China is. 

This is the china thread, right now the sentiment in western media almost NEVER points out something where china is doing something good. China is a threat, china is doing this bad and this bad. You tell me if it's biased! I am just sick of not actually having a factual discussion about what they are actually doing good and what's positive about china. 

 

That the US is the greatest country in the world, an investors heaven etc is pretty mainstream opinion. 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

You are SO wrong.

 

Its the coverup that China unrolled for years, not the lab leak. It’s the coverup.

Yes, i wrote that they stopped people from investigating. You are talking about biological weapons and releasing a virus against their "enemies" (while virtually harming themselves maybe even more)

[SharperDingaan]

You might want to consider the USD losing its current status as the worlds reserve currency. Lot of work going on that will replace the USD with a supra-national CBDC for use in nation-to-nation trade settlements. US/China/BRICS as roughly equals.

 

The reality is that both the Chinese and US economies are economically about the same size. Settle the bulk of global payments independently from tourist/remittance flows, the gorillas get smaller/more manageable, and the focus shifts to global people flow. 

 

Not going to happen soon, but it will happen, and probably within the next decade. 

Not a bad thing.

 

SD

[Viking]

26 minutes ago, Luca said:

You are willing to pick one atrocity the chinese did to make a case that China is horrible while ignoring all the other cherries of horrible acts by the US government. 

I also have zero problems with americans, i was talking about the people in the US government. Never said those two are the same. If you really believe there is NO freedom in China i completely disagree, in fact, i see chinese people everywhere and they are not telling me what a horrible country it is and how opressed and suffering they are.

This is the china thread, right now the sentiment in western media almost NEVER points out something where china is doing something good. China is a threat, china is doing this bad and this bad. You tell me if it's biased! I am just sick of not actually having a factual discussion about what they are actually doing good and what's positive about china. 

 

That the US is the greatest country in the world, an investors heaven etc is pretty mainstream opinion. 

@Luca  Have you watched the video below? The liberal democracies of the West and the CCP are completely different animals. When i watch this video it makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up. It provides a great real life  example of how the CCP operates - basically it does whatever it needs to do to stay in power… WITH ZERO CHECKS AND BALANCES. Yes, all liberal democracies are flawed. But the CCP is a frightening form of government (putting it politely).

 

 

[cubsfan]

28 minutes ago, Luca said:

Yes, i wrote that they stopped people from investigating. You are talking about biological weapons and releasing a virus against their "enemies" (while virtually harming themselves maybe even more)

Of course, that is a lie. I said China was a powerful and dangerous country. That is what I said. 
 

Their behavior during the coverup phase led to the deaths of MILLIONS of people - which you so callously disregard. China stonwalled at every point.

 

Now you are just blaming the victims - And ignoring the true culprits.

 

”Why does nobody trust China, you ask?” 
 

You just don’t like the answer 

[Spekulatius]

Applause everyone:

 

[crs223]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

Its the coverup that China unrolled for years

 

US and China both tried to cover up the lab leak.  (I don’t understand why the US wanted to cover it up.)

 

I don’t follow the logic “millions of deaths prevented if China did not cover up COVID origin”.

 

 

 

[tnp20]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3226039/china-mounts-cultural-offensive-win-war-narratives-against-us-will-other-countries-be-swayed?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=share_widget&utm_campaign=3226039

 

"However, analysts said that while Beijing could succeed at boosting cultural pride within China, it might struggle to convince the rest of the world of its alternative to the Western-dominated global order."

 

The top economies in 2050 will be USA, China, India, Indonesia (the exact order is debatable). No one is going to convince India and Indonesia to join "China order", let alone Europe, Japan, Korea, Anazc.

 

China's best hope is LATAM and Africa. I think the world order will still be western led over our lifetimes.

[Gregmal]

Asking most brainwashed westerners about China is equivalent to asking your wife if your girlfriend is pretty….

[sleepydragon]

people has to keep in mind there are different camps in China's political systems too. You can tell from the social media reaction of Yellen's visits to the Chinese restaurant. People I know in china are all talking about Yellen ordered 3 mushroom dishes. Yellen's visit is going to strengthen the pro-western camps in China.  

[zippy1]

3 hours ago, Luca said:

Thanks a lot for sharing @zippy1 I fast read through most of the sections, as expected the basic line is again: He wants what's good for the people and for the country. Also, the section with focussing not on just economic growth and development but also on good development, is miles better than what's happening in the US. If something harms the economy and the majority of the people, the CCP will ban and regulate it, no lobby, no questions asked. Might seem scary, but just look at the awful healthcare sector in the US. The massive control of businesses over congress, etc. Sure, the US is the most pro business country there is and it's a great place to invest, but stock market and economy are two different things. What about wage growth for average joe? What about diabetis medication for average susie? How do the citizens feel? Where is the wealth of the nation? How gated are the communities? 

 

I said it before, the huge inequality of where the wealth flows in the US harms their economic growth, political stability and sustainability. China knows that pressuring wages are stimulative for technological development and efficiency growth, they know that inefficient monopolies harm the overall economy and quality of life. Stock buybacks and dividends only get you so far. 

The way that most CCP members will use this kind of articles is different than the way you used it, though.  

one way they use it is like the following: if a party member is going to propose a policy change, they will check through this article to see whether they can find "support" to claim that their policy change proposal is to bring about the "intended results" based on XJP's thought.  At the same time, they will check whether their proposal can be viewed as against XJP’s thought by others (including their political competitors/ enemies.)

For example, if one is going to propose to abolish the Hu-Kuo system, he/she will check against this article to see whether he/she can gain support or can get in trouble or not. 

Another way is to compare the article against earlier articles to check the difference to see whether there is any indications about the change of the “direction.”

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, crs223 said:

 

US and China both tried to cover up the lab leak.  (I don’t understand why the US wanted to cover it up.)

 

I don’t follow the logic “millions of deaths prevented if China did not cover up COVID origin”.

 

 

 

 

For sure, Dr Fauci, the US media and corrupt administration did all they could to cover up the real issues. So yeah, the behavior of our own government and media was contemptible.

 

Million of deaths MAY have been prevented if China had come clean right from the beginning about the lab leak, and assisted the rest of the world. They just choose to deny, deny and deflect.

 

China proved they are not to be trusted.

 

We shouldn't be surprised from a country that runs concentration camps for Muslims.

Edited July 7, 2023 by cubsfan

[boilermaker75]

On 7/5/2023 at 12:55 PM, Spekulatius said:

Upthread it was stated that Wagner are more like pirates, but I think they are more like Privateers. Same job than pirates, but commissioned by the state/crown (British empire mostly).

Difference is that pirates work for their own, Mercenaries work for whoever pays most, but Privateers were private ventures who worked for the crown but used monetary incentives to wage war on the sea on enemy vessels. I am not sure that plausible deniability term existed back then, but I am sure the crown could not be reached for comments back then regarding this business either.

 

In France they were the Corsairs,  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_corsairs

[crs223]

29 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

country that runs concentration camps for Muslims

 

and they kill babies with “death squads”.  It’s a wonder there’s anyone left alive!

 

… what were we talking about again?

[tnp20]

https://archive.ph/SYpXj#selection-4075.154-4075.162

 

A prominent Chinese influencer has called on his fellow citizens to invest in the country’s stocks as property woes persist, at a time when the world’s No. 2 economy is mired in a deepening crisis of confidence.

 

“Given low expectations for a further massive expansion in the housing market, many folks don’t know where to put their money, except for bank deposits,” Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of the hardline tabloid Global Times, wrote in a post on his Weibo social media account Friday. “The stock market should be a key destination for funds.” 

 

“It’s time for China to more seriously build the stock market as an investment venue that matches its economic weight,” Hu wrote. “Perhaps we need to rebuild the stock investment culture with the participation of the government, enterprises, investment institutions and ordinary citizens.” 

 

Massive money flows possible but likely starts with a trickle....

 

Point is China doesnt need USA or Western investors....enough domestic and middle eastern and other sovereign wealth funds to drive their markets....

[Luke]

6 hours ago, cubsfan said:

You can apologize for China all you like. I’m simply saying China has proven their danger to the world. They are not at all apologetic about the disastrous lab leak. They said it originated from wet markets, and stymied all efforts to identify the true origin. China is definitely a world power and a dangerous one at that. Uncontrollable biological weapons tells you what you need to know.

 

Make all the excuses you like for them.

This is what you wrote. I understood you meant china has been using covid as an uncontrollable biological weapon? Weapons are used against enemies, in this case I assumed the West. 

[Spekulatius]

Generally, you don't use a biological weapon in your own country. It is always advisable to do away with complicated conspiracy theories when mere incompetence suffices to explain the facts at hand reasonably well.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Luke]

4 hours ago, Viking said:

@Luca  Have you watched the video below? The liberal democracies of the West and the CCP are completely different animals. When i watch this video it makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up. It provides a great real life  example of how the CCP operates - basically it does whatever it needs to do to stay in power… WITH ZERO CHECKS AND BALANCES. Yes, all liberal democracies are flawed. But the CCP is a frightening form of government (putting it politely).

 

 

Thanks a lot for the send @Viking! Is a very good watch, the CCP is brutal, regulations with no questions asked. Their legal system has many errors too, recently watched something about the kids who were born as second child when the one child policy was still intact. They have no passport, can't leave the country, the court doesn't do anything. The local governments don't do anything either and are in some cases even corrupt, collect high fines although the legal situation already changed. They, too, have many problems and can be evil too. 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Luca
Edit second child

[cubsfan]

On 7/7/2023 at 1:11 PM, Luca said:

This is what you wrote. I understood you meant china has been using covid as an uncontrollable biological weapon? Weapons are used against enemies, in this case I assumed the West. 

 

The fools did not have control of their own biological weapons. Why is the Chinese Red Army messing with this stuff anyway?

 

[Xerxes]

Looks like cluster weapons are green lighted to transfer to Ukraine as of today. 
 

Word on the street is that the US deputy defence point man himself was in Kiev to deliver the goodies 

 

 

Oops wrong picture. That is Rumsfeld in 1983 in Baghdad fuelling the Iraqi war machine against against Iran. The same Rumsfeld that got so cute with this unknown-unknown mumbo jumbo when the Bad Guys list was updated: 

 

Bad Guys circa 1991: USSR, Iran, Saruman, Sauron, Gollum, Saddam 

[Spekulatius]

56 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Looks like cluster weapons are green lighted to transfer to Ukraine as of today. 
 

Word on the street is that the US deputy defence point man himself was in Kiev to deliver the goodies 

 

 

Oops wrong picture. That is Rumsfeld in 1983 in Baghdad fuelling the Iraqi war machine against against Iran. The same Rumsfeld that got so cute with this unknown-unknown mumbo jumbo when the Bad Guys list was updated: 

 

Bad Guys circa 1991: USSR, Iran, Saruman, Sauron, Gollum, Saddam 

Russia is using cluster ammo in Ukraine and the US sure can do better then they do. No need to follow rules that the enemy has already cancelled.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/02/ukraine-cluster-munitions-kill-child-and-two-other-civilians-taking-shelter-at-a-preschool/

FWIW, neither Russia, Ukraine nor the USA signed the cluster ammunition ban.

[Xerxes]

^^^ my gut feeling/hope is that Ukraine does know what it is doing (somewhat) and US intelligence has credible information that it knows what it’s doing otherwise they wouldn’t have transferred

 

or ……the reverse of that is that US intelligence has credible info how bad is the ammunition shortage in the offensive that they are betting the house and lean in hard. 
 

Either war, signing or not signing the ban, this is a new low. But then again it is what it is in what is becoming fast a zero sum game 

 

 

Edit: meaning it has not nothing to do with Russian hitting that low first, this would have happened because they want to make the Ukrainian offensive successfully and clear the battlefield 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

The ammo shortage has been overhyped. just recently, the CEO of Rheinmetal, stated they can deliver 650k of 155mm ammo annual run rate. Thats just one company (albeit the biggest one in Germany) in the NATO. Ukraine is not going to run out of artillery shells for sure.

 

I think the cluster ammo came up because because Ukraine ask for it, According to one pundit, it is highly useful to clear out Russian trenches as part of the offensive. It also can be used to clear a path in the Russian minefields which which have been hampering the offensive.

 

FWIW, the tungsten Ball payloads for HMARS doesn’t even count as cluster ammo.

[lnofeisone]

16 hours ago, UK said:

 

I am not sure, but it seems that these remaining flows is about 9 per cent of total pre war EU gas import from Russia? Still could be painful for some countries (including Hungary), but maybe manageable / already not the issue for most EU?

 

I think the trick here is to think about Ukraine. Ukraine isn't counted in Europe's energy consumption/imports. Ukraine also buys nat gas from traders who buy it from Russia, i.e., Ukraine flows Russian gas to europe and then flows it back. Russia's exports are roughly 10% of its pre-war capacity to about 15 bcm (from ~150 bcm). Ukraine's imported gas is roughly 10-12bcm. I wouldn't be surprised if 100% of Ukraine's imported gas is Russian. 

 

With all European LNG terminals up and running, I think the actual pipe sizes is what will matter and I suspect the pipes aren't large enough to supply the host import country (e.g., Germany) and ship to Ukraine.