Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

On 7/3/2023 at 5:28 AM, John Hjorth said:

Has anybody seen any tangible / solid information about the whereabouts of Yevgeny Prigozhin recently [in the last week]?

 

Two weeks today since what I have called the coup d'état. Still no *real* [tangible / solid]  information about what's going on inside Russia.

 

I'm puzzled.

[Xerxes]

57 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Two weeks today since what I have called the coup d'état. Still no *real* [tangible / solid]  information about what's going on inside Russia.

 

I'm puzzled.

No need to be puzzled John. This is infact highly consistent. 
 

"Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" ~ Sir Winston Churchill 

[Xerxes]

Here are some infamous quotes from Sir Winston. Most of which we need to pretend to not know in this day and age. 
 

https://amp.theguardian.com/theguardian/2002/nov/28/features11.g21

[John Hjorth]

9 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

No need to be puzzled John. This is infact highly consistent. 
 

"Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" ~ Sir Winston Churchill 

 

 Great one, @Xerxes!,

 

What do you do to take down a man who takes him self too seriously? You troll him and pull pranks on him, so he looses face.

 

Twitter : Phillips O'Brien : Ukrainians openly trolling Russian navy .

 

Twitter : How to pull a prank, saying "Who owns whose a**" [Normally, this phenomen is about cats, not dogs.]

 

 

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Two weeks today since what I have called the coup d'état. Still no *real* [tangible / solid]  information about what's going on inside Russia.

 

I'm puzzled.

There is a decent discussion on CNN with Bill Browder (who gets a lot of air time). Bill think there is more than meets the eye. The actions of Putin regarding this coup make no sense with just the information provided. According to Bill, they even returned the $111M in cash they found at the raid of Prighozhins office there (to whom exactly is unclear ). 

Bill thinks both Prigozhin and Putin have killers out there.

 

Just my guess - if someone gets accidentally smashed by a hammer, it is probably Prigozhins guys, if the die of nerve gas or polonium poisoning or fall out a window, it’s on Putin hitmen.

Edited July 8, 2023 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

It's pretty striking to me, I would say, that not Browder, nor Kasparov, nor Khodorkovsky has much tangible to add here. Perhaps it's time to just settle with the Winston Churchil quote above posted by @Xerxes, and to shrug.

 

Edited July 8, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

No need to be puzzled John. This is infact highly consistent. 
 

"Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" ~ Sir Winston Churchill 

 

….. but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest” ~ Sir Winston concludes after making the quote 

 

the quote came about or after the signing of Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in 1939 

[John Hjorth]

"Russian National Interest" in casu? - Please give me a break. The man is runnning and ruling the country for his own personal benefit.

[Xerxes]

5 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

"Russian National Interest" in casu? - Please give me a break. The man is runnning and ruling the country for his own personal benefit.

yeap. And so did Joseph Stalin, the non-Russian leader of the Kremlin. 
 

Russian national interest does not equal what is good for Russian people. It does however reflect what is good for the Kremlin and the elitist. 
 

who am I to argue with Sir Winston anyway ?

 

in any case, on Pregovign ‘ case, I think the CNN interview with Bill has it right. His connection to Africa is paramount for “Russian national interest” or however you might want to call it. 

[Castanza]

18 hours ago, Xerxes said:

^^^ my gut feeling/hope is that Ukraine does know what it is doing (somewhat) and US intelligence has credible information that it knows what it’s doing otherwise they wouldn’t have transferred

Mmmm idk, go back to the Cuban missile crisis and pretty much everyone but Kennedy wanted to start a nuclear war. Every general and advisor was pounding the table to attack Cuba. One of the few times in history where a single man had such an important decision with hindsight outcome. Ignorance and miscalculations are just at common at the highest level of governments and their military leadership. 
 

Not saying it’s not the right move. But a match in escalation could also be the start of a new path which in the end could be the wrong move. Time will tell.

 

18 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

FWIW, the tungsten Ball payloads for HMARS doesn’t even count as cluster ammo

 

DPICMs are what’s being shipped. They are guided cluster bombs that have various submunitions like incendiary, armor piercing, or just regular anti personnel shrapnel type explosive. They absolutely are cluster bombs. Obama was trying to retire them in 06 (which Biden was in favor of) over his term. Trump got rid of that program and not Biden is utilizing them. Pretty ironic tbh. 

[John Hjorth]

12 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

... who am I to argue with Sir Winston anyway ? ...

 

Please just give it a go. There is nothing as entertaining as a good libel trial, especially when your opponent is deceased. Up it Up!

[Spekulatius]

34 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Mmmm idk, go back to the Cuban missile crisis and pretty much everyone but Kennedy wanted to start a nuclear war. Every general and advisor was pounding the table to attack Cuba. One of the few times in history where a single man had such an important decision with hindsight outcome. Ignorance and miscalculations are just at common at the highest level of governments and their military leadership. 
 

Not saying it’s not the right move. But a match in escalation could also be the start of a new path which in the end could be the wrong move. Time will tell.

 

 

DPICMs are what’s being shipped. They are guided cluster bombs that have various submunitions like incendiary, armor piercing, or just regular anti personnel shrapnel type explosive. They absolutely are cluster bombs. Obama was trying to retire them in 06 (which Biden was in favor of) over his term. Trump got rid of that program and not Biden is utilizing them. Pretty ironic tbh. 

Well, I think it’s just what they have available in quantities needed. It’s really Ukraines call, since the main concern are civilian casualties post war, these casualties will be Ukrainians. So it’s Zelenskis difficult call to make.

 

This ammo should be good to clear russian trenches and minefield which is what’s needed apparently.
 

Not sure what the Russian missile crisis has to do with this. If we were uptight about that, we would have done something about the Chinese base that seems to be operating in Cuba.

Edited July 8, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Castanza]

36 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Well, I think it’s just what they have available in quantities needed. It’s really Ukraines call, since the main concern are civilian casualties post war, these casualties will be Ukrainians. So it’s Zelenskis difficult call to make.

 

This ammo should be good to clear russian trenches and minefield which is what’s needed apparently.
 

Not sure what the Russian missile crisis has to do with this. If we were uptight about that, we would have done something about the Chinese base that seems to be operating in Cuba.

Idk about that…it’s our weaponry and our money. If Ukraine asks for a nuke should we give it to them? Zelensky has no shortage of requests at others expense. 
 

Because 15 years from now when some farmer or kids gets their leg blown off while plowing a field they aren’t going to say “Damn that Zelensky!”….no they’re going to look at the shell shrapnel and see printed in the side U.S.A.

 

 Escalating with a weapons system that was in the process of being phased out because of the lasting devastation it leaves the local populace with is a precursor to other weapon system escalations. Ukraine is already going to have a hard time dealing with all the land mines. Throw in some cluster munitions and you have billion and billion and billions of dollars sunk in cleanup efforts before the war is even close to being over. 
 

Realistically what’s next? What do we give them next and where does it end? How long till we put boots on the ground ourselves as we realize this war is going to last for a long time? 
 

The move seems a bit shortsighted to me. 

[ValueArb]

6 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Idk about that…it’s our weaponry and our money. If Ukraine asks for a nuke should we give it to them? Zelensky has no shortage of requests at others expense. 
 

Because 15 years from now when some farmer or kids gets their leg blown off while plowing a field they aren’t going to say “Damn that Zelensky!”….no they’re going to look at the shell shrapnel and see printed in the side U.S.A.

 

 Escalating with a weapons system that was in the process of being phased out because of the lasting devastation it leaves the local populace with is a precursor to other weapon system escalations. Ukraine is already going to have a hard time dealing with all the land mines. Throw in some cluster munitions and you have billion and billion and billions of dollars sunk in cleanup efforts before the war is even close to being over. 
 

Realistically what’s next? What do we give them next and where does it end? How long till we put boots on the ground ourselves as we realize this war is going to last for a long time? 
 

The move seems a bit shortsighted to me. 

modern cluster munitions are much better at self disabling. There will be far more Ukrainians injured/killed post war by mines than cluster munitions. And when Ukrainians find a US origin on the cluster bomblet that hurt them, they will think those are the people who helped us protect our freedoms from rapists and murderers.

 

Its short-sighted to think that the Ukrainians should be handcuffed so the war can last longer and they can shed more blood, to avoid giving them cluster munitions or long range strike weapons.

[Spekulatius]

It it not an escalation since the Russian side has been using them from day one directly against civilians in some cases.

 

Zelensky has to decide the risk/ reward of using them, after all they are going to be used in his country. I do agree the mines are a much bigger problem.

Edited July 8, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

modern cluster munitions are much better at self disabling. There will be far more Ukrainians injured/killed post war by mines than cluster munitions. And when Ukrainians find a US origin on the cluster bomblet that hurt them, they will think those are the people who helped us protect our freedoms from rapists and murderers.

 

Its short-sighted to think that the Ukrainians should be handcuffed so the war can last longer and they can shed more blood, to avoid giving them cluster munitions or long range strike weapons.

Just like the Afghans, Iraqis, Vietnamese, huh? You make war out to be black and white. Nothing about war is ever black and white. Including the powers at play. 
 

Handcuffed? That’s putting the cart before the horse with a deep and long history of how we got here. 
 

War can last longer? There is a sure solution out of this war. It’s called a peace deal, negotiations, etc. There is an in unbearable amount of times throughout history where peace deals could have been struck, but short sighted bureaucrats with little skin in the game decide otherwise. This war is following almost to a T the same playbook we used back in the 70’s when we got the Soviet Union to invade Afghanistan. If Berlinsky were still alive I’m sure he would be licking his chops at this proxy war and the ability to cripple another nation at the expense of others citizens. 
 

And I am not saying the NATO expansion was the only driver of this war. Putin and Russian leadership also had their motives, but it damn sure was a pillar of what we see. 
 

—————————-

 

At the end of the day there is a HELL OF A LOT of people who love to pound the table on war that have absolutely ZERO skin in the game. There is no shortage of boogiemen in the world to justify war with someone. 

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

Just like the Afghans, Iraqis, Vietnamese, huh? You make war out to be black and white. Nothing about war is ever black and white. Including the powers at play. 
 

Handcuffed? That’s putting the cart before the horse with a deep and long history of how we got here. 
 

War can last longer? There is a sure solution out of this war. It’s called a peace deal, negotiations, etc. There is an in unbearable amount of times throughout history where peace deals could have been struck, but short sighted bureaucrats with little skin in the game decide otherwise. This war is following almost to a T the same playbook we used back in the 70’s when we got the Soviet Union to invade Afghanistan. If Berlinsky were still alive I’m sure he would be licking his chops at this proxy war and the ability to cripple another nation at the expense of others citizens. 
 

And I am not saying the NATO expansion was the only driver of this war. Putin and Russian leadership also had their motives, but it damn sure was a pillar of what we see. 
 

—————————-

 

At the end of the day there is a HELL OF A LOT of people who love to pound the table on war that have absolutely ZERO skin in the game. There is no shortage of boogiemen in the world to justify war with someone. 

 

The Ukrainians have ALL of their skin in the game and they want cluster munitions.

 

And we didn't have anything to do with the start of this war. Putin didn't invade because of the expansion of NATO, he did it because he wanted to recreate something like the USSR to increase Russias power. Saying that a organization of mutual self defense is forcing an aggressive dictatorship to start a war is as silly as it is wrong.

 

Finally the war can only end with a peace agreement. But the only peace agreement that has been available is for Ukraine to either surrender its sovereignty and disappear within the Russian maw, or surrender a third of its territory so Russia has time to rebuild its forces to reinvade in five years and finish them off. 

 

If Russia quits, the war ends. If Ukraine quits  their children are kidnapped, their women are raped, their men are tortured and their lands are taken.

[Castanza]

24 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

Saying that a organization of mutual self defense is forcing an aggressive dictatorship to start a war is as silly as it is wrong.

Lol ok well most credible historians would disagree with that. This has been rehashed so many times it’s nauseating how blind some are to the reality of cause and effect. 
 

Cuban missile crisis ring a bell? Lucky we had Kennedy or we’d have 50m people dead…. 

[Spekulatius]

29 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Lol ok well most credible historians would disagree with that. This has been rehashed so many times it’s nauseating how blind some are to the reality of cause and effect. 
 

Cuban missile crisis ring a bell? Lucky we had Kennedy or we’d have 50m people dead…. 

And a lot of credible historians would disagree with your view and this also has been repeated ad nausea. Putin is really concerned about a democracy starting to prosper at his doorstep from a former Sovjet Union state proving there is a better way and undermining his raison d‘etre. Makes more sense to me. Same than XJP in China with HK and Taiwan.

[Castanza]

24 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

And a lot of credible historians would disagree with your view and this also has been repeated ad nausea. Putin is really concerned about a democracy starting to prosper at his doorstep from a former Sovjet Union state proving there is a better way and undermining his raison d‘etre. Makes more sense to me. Same than XJP in China with HK and Taiwan.

I think all of the things mentioned are factors. But for anyone to say NATO using Ukraine as a launch site against Russia is not a factor is simply ignorant. US wouldn’t stand for missiles in Cuba or Canada pointed at us. “Just keeping the peace though”. 
 

Putin has been saying for over a decade this was a concern. I think there is credibility to Ukraine being a geographical point of defense. Zeihan has pointed this out as well. Does Putin want the USSR back? Probably so. I mean he grew up there and saw a country that in his eyes was great and United and strong end up in ruins. He’s wrong, but his sentiment or nostalgia is understandable. A lot of people seem to miss the fact that Putin also understands the degrading demographics of Russia. So this being a last ditch effort to maintain the Motherland is understandable through his actions (although not justifiable).
 

People will probably say that I’m crazy for saying that as well, but it’s well documented. And in my opinion if people can’t understand that point of view the. 1.) You haven’t walked in another’s shoes 2.) They don’t understand humans, political sociology, or nation states and likely think geopolitics is nothing more than a black and white game of risk. 
 

Putin is not a rational actor. He sees this as a last ditch effort and that he is backed into a corner. This is primarily why I think deescalation at all costs should be forefront on the Wests minds. Not matching escalation with weapons that are basically used for war crimes. This is the closest we’ve been to a nuke clacking off in a long time and too many people see this situation as simple and in black and white terms whit it is far far from that. 
 

As Bertrand Russell said….You can only expect a man to walk a tightrope so long before he falls….. 

 

sometime some day someone will clack one off and everyone if they survive will lol back at how foolish they were in their thinking. It’s short sighted by the west. We came close enough with Cuba… 

[Xerxes]

@Castanza

 

Kennedy and this Russian guy, who thankfully was not a complete idiot like the overexcited “patriotic” General Lemay

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/science/2017/oct/27/vasili-arkhipov-soviet-submarine-captain-who-averted-nuclear-war-awarded-future-of-life-prize

[Xerxes]

On the cluster munitions, the view that Ukraine can cleanup their own land, after the fact so it is their choice to use or not is based on the view that Ukraine will be able to eject +180,000 Russian troops from its territory by force or through treaty. 
 

Another way to think of it, if they are unable to eject all Russians (very highly plausible scenario), these weapons are really intended for Ukraine to “scorched earth” what it cannot have. 
 

And U.S. DoD can finally clear its inventory and release some constrained cash flow on paper to the delight of its accountants. Got to tidy up that DoD balance sheet. 
 

——

 

In any case, the Wagner episode has shown the cracks in the Kremlin regime, it is no surprise that Biden administration is leaning into it hard. Got to lean in, and lean in until something breaks. The old man wants its legacy.
 

Definitely above my pay grade. 

[Castanza]

17 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

On the cluster munitions, the view that Ukraine can cleanup their own land, after the fact so it is their choice to use or not is based on the view that Ukraine will be able to eject +180,000 Russian troops from its territory by force or through treaty. 
 

Another way to think of it, if they are unable to eject all Russians (very highly plausible scenario), these weapons are really intended for Ukraine to “scorched earth” what it cannot have. 
 

And U.S. DoD can finally clear its inventory and release some constrained cash flow on paper to the delight of its accountants. Got to tidy up that DoD balance sheet. 
 

——

 

In any case, the Wagner episode has shown the cracks in the Kremlin regime, it is no surprise that Biden administration is leaning into it hard. Got to lean in, and lean in until something breaks. The old man wants its legacy.
 

Definitely above my pay grade. 

Cleanuo is a long road no matter how you look at it. Ukraine is going to need a lot of help on this front (already are in many cases). 
 

The Wagner development is definitely a big deal. I’m sure the CIA is in the trenching looking for ways to exploit this further. 
 

———————

To the others on this thread. I am 100% behind Ukraine and I do think the US has a responsibility to support through supply. However I think NATO is a primary cause of this war. I don’t think Putins actions are justified, but when I put myself in the shoes of the Russians I do understand it. Looking here at home there are plenty of people who would do desperate things to preserve the Republic. You can feel that in the air with the previous election. But often people are misaligned with the wrong person or take the wrong path. Frankly I get very tired of hearing people say “so and so would t do that.” Or “it doesn’t make sense for Russia to do that”. 
 

Nothing about war makes sense, and history is primarily filled with illogical and irrational individuals. There has been a lot of luck involved in very high stakes situations over the past 80 years. At some point the die is going to hit. 
 

 

[lnofeisone]

Can the answer be lot more straightforward? Ukraine is struggling to reclaim its territory and just needs nastier weapons to make progress. Russia is well dug in and more importantly, had adapted to be more effective. Mines, helicopters, lancets - are all things that Russia has perfected and it's now causing Ukarine major headaches. Just my 2 cents. 

[Xerxes]

57 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

Can the answer be lot more straightforward? Ukraine is struggling to reclaim its territory and just needs nastier weapons to make progress. Russia is well dug in and more importantly, had adapted to be more effective. Mines, helicopters, lancets - are all things that Russia has perfected and it's now causing Ukarine major headaches. Just my 2 cents. 

Certainly. That said we are just having conversations, shooting different scenarios, challenging different points of views, going down the rabbit hole for the hell of it etc. 

 

if you want to be absolutely factual, than 90% of what has been said in this thread is mostly speculation and “what ifs” and throwing in stuff from recent and past history. 
 

I dare say, this thread itself is a piece of history in some ways, capturing the different points of view, different biases, etc as events unfolded over now 450+ or so days.