Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

Awesome, thank you for sharing, @Spekulatius,

 

Purpose plausible deniability, and in this week we've got videos on Twitter, where Putin is putting numbers on the "chef" activities, and PMC activities, drowned somewhere in the Russian state budget. I only find it a bit amusing, because I've not been contributing to it.

 

The man is simply loosing it.

Edited July 1, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

@John Hjorth The YouTube Clip Form the WSJ is an excellent piece of journalism. It’s funny when people here complain about MSM because as far as I am concerned, if you care to look, you find excellent articles from MSM and other sources. It’s not difficult either.

 

As far as the Wagner group is concerned, I was surprised how they operate as a commercial company with their impressive headquarter and that they operate mines themselves (I thought they operate as security in exchange for a cut before I saw this), drill for oil on their own concessions.

 

Now Wagner probably will be disbanded but you hear already that Russian companies like Gazprom are building their own “ security forces”. It will be interesting to see if the Wagner co will continue to operate in Africa under their old flag or just change superficially. I am sure they won’t just leave and give up gold mines or oil concessions.

[John Hjorth]

Ian Fleming did not know, that what he was "inventing" - making up and thinking up with the use of his imagination and fantasy in 1961 while finishing the manus to Thunderball introducing SPECTRE would end up later to become quite similar to the playbook of Wagner PMC. All, from Russia with love.

 

A tapeworm, but the logo is clearly an Octopus. It's deeply concerning.

[UK]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/30/valery-zaluzhny-ukraine-general-interview/

 

 

[Spekulatius]

On 6/30/2023 at 11:34 PM, zippy1 said:

Latest book list of bestsellers in China (for first half of June):
In the top 20 bestsellers:
1) there are 7 books written by XJP about XJP's thoughts. They are ranked at 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 13. These are selected articles by the great leader.
2) there are 5 books about CCP and its 20th party congress. They are ranked at 3, 4, 11, 12, 20 
3) there are 2 books for the preparaton of the political exams in graduate school entrance exam: they are ranked at 10 and 16.
If the bestseller list reflects what the party and populatoin care about, the focus appears not on the economy.

My guess is that everybody buys these books and nobody reads them. It’s just something you need to show on  your bookshelf at home or at work to show that you are a good party member.

 

 XJP is a neo Maoist which is a derivative of Leninism basically. Leninism means that the communist party should have the monopoly on power and their nightmare is a repeat of the student protests in the late 80‘s that culminated in the Tiananmen massacre. Note that Russia had similar issues at the same time where the Russian communist party lost their Monopol and power (eventually leading to the Putin autocracy). XJP will do everything to avoid a similar situation because once the CCP loses their grip, it’s likely irreversible.

[cubsfan]

A little clip on the US military response to the Wagner Group in Syria:

 

 

[ValueArb]

33 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

A little clip on the US military response to the Wagner Group in Syria:

 

 

 

Wagner historically seems similar to pirates. Men join because they are promised high pay and a share of plunder from their raids, but the lower level recruits get fed into meatgrinders like this one trying to capture an Oil Refinery, while the higher level guys hang back and take most of the booty when they succeed.

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

Wagner historically seems similar to pirates. Men join because they are promised high pay and a share of plunder from their raids, but the lower level recruits get fed into meatgrinders like this one trying to capture an Oil Refinery, while the higher level guys hang back and take most of the booty when they succeed.

The Wagner have a pretty spotty track record according to this article:

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/russian-mercenaries-a-string-of-failures-in-africa/
 

If they meet a well equipped and motivated opponent, they don’t tend to do all that well.

[lnofeisone]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

The Wagner have a pretty spotty track record according to this article:

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/russian-mercenaries-a-string-of-failures-in-africa/
 

If they meet a well equipped and motivated opponent, they don’t tend to do all that well.

In today's conflict, two equally equipped peers will have difficulty moving the battle lines. This is what we are witnessing from Ukraine/Russia conflict. I think that's going to be the way forward. 

 

The oil refinery fiasco in Syria was the US airforce and precision artilerry having a field day with ground forces with no air or anti-air support.  Russia and Wagner have done a decent job adjusting in the Ukraine/Russian conflict to neutralize HIMARS and take advantage of Ukraine's shorting of anti-air and unleashing the helicopters. 

[John Hjorth]

Has anybody seen any tangible / solid information about the whereabouts of Yevgeny Prigozhin recently [in the last week]?

[UK]

9 hours ago, cubsfan said:

A little clip on the US military response to the Wagner Group in Syria:

 

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/30/wagner-syria-russia-battle-united-states/

 

And the incident also offered an early indication of the tensions to come between Prigozhin and Russia’s military leadership. The apparent loss of dozens of Wagner fighters in a single night in Syria allegedly infuriated Prigozhin, who earlier this month put out his account of the 2018 events on the social media platform Telegram. In his telling, the Wagner expedition was supposed to be the advance force of an “anti-ISIS” operation that would secure control over the plant and its environs with air support from the Russian military. But that support never came, and Prigozhin was left fuming at Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian Gen. Valery Gerasimov for allowing his fighters to become U.S. cannon fodder. According to U.S. officials in 2018, their Russian counterparts denied involvement in the battle and, during emergency discussions as the fighting raged, assented to the use of American air power on the scene. A U.S. official told my colleagues five years ago that it was “striking how the Russians themselves have been quick to distance themselves” from what he described as an operation “under Syrian command and in response to Syrian directive.” “The Russian high command in Syria assured us it was not their people,” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told senators in testimony in April 2018. He said he directed Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “for the [attacking] force, then, to be annihilated.”

[John Hjorth]

ICPA - Eurojust.

 

Now, just wait patiently and see how this initiative is going to play out.

Edited July 3, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

21 hours ago, cubsfan said:

A little clip on the US military response to the Wagner Group in Syria:

 

 

thanks for posting. I vividly recall that event when it happened.
 

That said, I am not a fan of this specific video because (1)  it was produced recently with recent events in mind (I.e Wagnor) “I.e hey let’s make a video where Wagnor gets destroyed” (2) I was never fan of non-historians writing up stuff into short clips and throwing on YouTube. 

 

I prefer work that was written back then, and not produced now because of the connection to Ukraine War. Two books comes in mind, one of which was cited on Aviation Week. Shown below. Now published. I have not read  

 

another focus specifically on Russian engagement in Syria. I have not read. 
 

https://www.amazon.ca/Operation-Aleppo-Russias-War-Syria/dp/0992945828

 

[Luke]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-03/china-to-restrict-exports-of-metals-critical-to-chip-production

 

China imposed restrictions on exporting two metals that are crucial to parts of the semiconductor, telecommunications and electric-vehicle industries in an escalation of the country’s tit-for-tat trade war on technology with the US and Europe.

[cubsfan]

@Xerxes - yeah, definitely understand that position. There was so little news about that incident ever on the news.  It was actively supressed. Thanks for the Aviation Week article - cause that is one I have not seen.

 

Regardless, the Syrian incident is a good account of the Wagner Group in action, driven by their 25% take - and figuring somehow the US might run/cower from the attack. Serious miscalculation.

 

Never heard another think from Putin in Syria after that response.

 

"Plausible deniability at work"

 

Edited July 3, 2023 by cubsfan

[Xerxes]

A lot changed in the past several decades, yet much remains the same: concerns about the economy and the geopolitics 

 

Time magazine cover page in Feb 1984 and March 1984; doom and gloom

 

couple of years later Chernenko died making way for Gorbachev and the economy did just fine 

[Spekulatius]

The problem with Syria of course is that while Wagner lost a few men (which are expendable for them) they remain firmly entrenched there and used their Syrian playbook to repeat their business model in several countries on Africa.

 

The US won a battle and lost the war.

[tnp20]

 

This is the correct policy prescription for balance sheet recession. Everyone knows about  risks of falling into a balance sheet recession. Every policy mandarin has read Richard Koo's book. Leadership listens to Liu Yuanchun - he is a highly trusted economist.

 

The disease is known. The medicine has been prescribed. Now only the drugs need to be taken and wait for the effects. If need be the dosage needs to be increased until the disease is in remission. 

 

[Spekulatius]

18 minutes ago, tnp20 said:

 

This is the correct policy prescription for balance sheet recession. Everyone knows about  risks of falling into a balance sheet recession. Every policy mandarin has read Richard Koo's book. Leadership listens to Liu Yuanchun - he is a highly trusted economist.

 

The disease is known. The medicine has been prescribed. Now only the drugs need to be taken and wait for the effects. If need be the dosage needs to be increased until the disease is in remission. 

 

They may have to let go of the Yuan to USD peg if they go down that route. The Yuan had been weak anyways.

[Xerxes]

Been watching the WSJ documentary on Wagner:

 

- great documentary (WSJ rocks)

 

- I found the comment about “Kremlin could not be reached for comments” hilarious 

 

- given the boss extensive network explained in this documentary, I am thinking he may not actually be “dead man walking” … at least not in the short term 

====Warning: if you are a westerner based in North America and/or Europe, living the dream, you may find this following comment disturbing. Apologies in advance. Perhaps actually don’t read it====

 

- Wagner is basically a modern age version of British East India Company. Without the benefit of existing 200 years ago, which allowed its Western glorification compound faster than facts !  
 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

6 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Been watching the WSJ documentary on Wagner:

 

- great documentary (WSJ rocks)

 

- I found the comment about “Kremlin could not be reached for comments” hilarious 

 

- given the boss extensive network explained in this documentary, I am thinking he may not actually be “dead man walking” … at least not in the short term 

====Warning: if you are a westerner based in North America and/or Europe, living the dream, you may find this following comment disturbing. Apologies in advance. Perhaps actually don’t read it====

 

- Wagner is basically a modern age version of British East India Company. Without the benefit of existing 200 years ago, which allowed its Western glorification compound faster than facts !  
 

 

 

 

 

Upthread it was stated that Wagner are more like pirates, but I think they are more like Privateers. Same job than pirates, but commissioned by the state/crown (British empire mostly).

Difference is that pirates work for their own, Mercenaries work for whoever pays most, but Privateers were private ventures who worked for the crown but used monetary incentives to wage war on the sea on enemy vessels. I am not sure that plausible deniability term existed back then, but I am sure the crown could not be reached for comments back then regarding this business either.

[tnp20]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-presidential-front-runner-says-010428749.html

 

I maintain my stance that there is no urgency on China's part to go after Taiwan...this issue will go from boil to simmer for the medium term.

 

 

 

[rogermunibond]

A good thread on China and possible hukou reform that would open up domestic consumption demand.

 

https://en.rattibha.com/thread/1676658899892445203

[Spekulatius]

On 7/3/2023 at 1:23 PM, Luca said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-03/china-to-restrict-exports-of-metals-critical-to-chip-production

 

China imposed restrictions on exporting two metals that are crucial to parts of the semiconductor, telecommunications and electric-vehicle industries in an escalation of the country’s tit-for-tat trade war on technology with the US and Europe.

These elements are commodities that are relatively easy to produce. it just wasn't worth it because the market is fairly small and the Chinese supply was cheap and plentiful.

The West controls many materials and consumables critical for semiconductor manufacturing - think high purity etching, polishing agents and photolithography polymers/ agents. The Chinese produce some of those but for leading edge special materials and sometime high purities are needed that they have to source from the west.

 

I do think it's likely that a retaliatory move along the lines of putting some of the material on an export control list as well, which means that the Chinese can't source them. Other than just the elements that China restricts, the material I am thinking about are high tech materials that are not easy to reverse engineer and it will take the Chinese a long time to get equivalent sources produced domestically.

 

This is not a game that the Chinese can win, imo.

[Spekulatius]

Happy belated 4th of July to all those who check in here: