Political Posts

[cubsfan]

^^^^ That was quite enjoyable!

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-developer-1-8-billion-024446847.html

 

20% below appraisal value!  Appraisal value is worth less than the paper it's written on in China!  

 

Cheers!

[tnp20]

There is just no demand for land right now...these are usually areas in lower tier cities. Good locations would be snapped up right away. Also depends on what the land was designated for...commercial , industrial or residential.

 

With glut of built and in-progress housing with lack lustre new sales no one is going to bid on land except prime real estate they can sit on. This is to be expected and confirms the realities on the ground.....Housing is stuck and values for full constructed units continue to erode somewhat (but not crash).

 

There is talk of government potentially buying some of this and converting it into low income housing ...especially for lower tier cities. Stabilizing housing is one of their top policy goals in the "fixing the balance sheet recession" plan but its all talk right now, no meaningful action has been taken other than tweaking the 3 red lines and loosening some of the restrictions around first and second homes.

Edited July 6, 2023 by tnp20

[zippy1]

Maybe because Shenzhen has more Tech industries?

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2023-07-06/more-shenzhen-office-space-goes-begging-for-tenants-102072773.html

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg [July 6^th 2023] : Russia Gas Giant Warns of Sanctions Risk for Ukraine Energy Firm.

 

This has the potential to turn really bad - for both Europe and Russia. I have mentioned the gas pipelines in Ukraine before upstream in this topic and their importance, everyone seem to skip or disregard this matter / issue.

 

Gazprom PJSC CEO Alexei Miller has for long now looked like something dragged inside the house by the cat, when he has been seen in videos. I think nobody envies him his job. 

 

Really bad, when international trade gets messed up with geopolitics.

 

Personally I speculate that this could evolve and escalate into something worse than last autumn and winter in the European gas markets.

Edited July 7, 2023 by John Hjorth

[UK]

51 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Bloomberg [July 6^th 2023] : Russia Gas Giant Warns of Sanctions Risk for Ukraine Energy Firm.

 

This has the potential to turn really bad - for both Europe and Russia. I have mentioned the gas pipelines in Ukraine before upstream in this topic and their importance, everyone seem to skip or disregard this matter / issue.

 

Gazprom PJSC CEO Alexei Miller has for long now looked like something dragged inside the house by the cat, when he has been seen in videos. I think nobody envies him his job. 

 

Really bad, when international trade gets messed up with geopolitics.

 

Personally I speculate that this could evolve and escalate into something worse than last autumn and winter in the European gas markets.

 

I am not sure, but it seems that these remaining flows is about 9 per cent of total pre war EU gas import from Russia? Still could be painful for some countries (including Hungary), but maybe manageable / already not the issue for most EU?

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by UK

[Luke]

@cubsfan Why would China unleash a Virus into their own country, killing 100k chinese people, seriously harming their economy, risking huge protests against the government. It doesnt make any sense it all, yeah maybe it was a lab error but that this was a Intelligence Operation to harm the "world" is unsubstantiated and a crazy claim. Although the US likes to throw these words around to make other people afraid of china, worked pretty well in their favour. 

[Spekulatius]

1 minute ago, Luca said:

@cubsfan Why would China unleash a Virus into their own country, killing 100k chinese people, seriously harming their economy, risking huge protests against the government. It doesnt make any sense it all, yeah maybe it was a lab error but that this was a Intelligence Operation to harm the "world" is unsubstantiated and a crazy claim. Although the US likes to throw these words around to make other people afraid of china, worked pretty well in their favour. 

The lab leak hypothesis does not imply the release was deliberate. If COVID-19 indeed was from a lab, it was most likely an accidental release as a consequence of lack of safety measures and perhaps reckless research to begin with.

 

China is not weak either, they have strengths and weaknesses. China is an industrial powerhouse for once. On the other hand, they have a personality cult around a neo Maoist leader who tries to run the country by himself now., which I don’t think goes into the strength bucket.

 

My simple view, like it or not, is that we are in a Cold War with China, first economically, now politically and in the future perhaps militarily which will be ongoing for decades. If you invest in China and this war gets hot, you will lose all your money, at least as an US or Western European person.

[Luke]

22 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The lab leak hypothesis does not imply the release was deliberate. If COVID-19 indeed was from a lab, it was most likely an accidental release as a consequence of lack of safety measures and perhaps reckless research to begin with.

+1

22 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

China is not weak either, they have strengths and weaknesses. China is an industrial powerhouse for once. On the other hand, they have a personality cult around a neo Maoist leader who tries to run the country by himself now., which I don’t think goes into the strength bucket.

We can only see what happens, I think he will run the country just fine, long term. 

22 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

 

My simple view, like it or not, is that we are in a Cold War with China, first economically, now politically and in the future perhaps militarily which will be ongoing for decades. If you invest in China and this war gets hot, you will lose all your money, at least as an US or Western European person.

How likely do you think is this scenario, a full-blown military war between the West and China? That would be another World War but with economic consequences of epic proportions. Which stock won't go down if the rockets start flying into the cities, It's also not like Ukraine Russia, they have nuclear weapons...it doesnt make any sense for either the US or China to fight with the military. 

 

China is a huge threat because their economy is and will be much more competitive than any other, they are hard working people, they are at the forefront of science: https://www.science.org/content/article/china-rises-first-place-most-cited-papers, they have their manufacturing in the country and didn't outsource it to some foreign country like the US. Its obvious why they get so much hate, they are a threat for all the business owners in the west who benefitted from cheap asian labor while resting on little competition. That changed and will change harder.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

Disadvantage:

 

It’s not just scale that places the United States at a comparative disadvantage in infrastructure construction. China is better at building, not just domestically but across the globe. Chinese firms dominate the competitive procurement of leading infrastructure lenders such as the World Bank. They won $2.3 billion worth of World Bank–financed infrastructure contracts outside China in 2020, compared to the United States’ $27 million worth of contracts. Of the 20 largest construction contractors, 14 are in China, six are in Europe, and none are in the United States. China owes its dominance partly to government subsidies, but on balance, that’s a good deal for developing countries who are effectively receiving handouts from Chinese taxpayers. U.S. policymakers may claim that Chinese subsidies are unfair, but those complaints will fall on deaf ears in the countries that benefit from China’s largess.

 

Anxiety:

 

But the gravest flaw of B3W is that it appears to be based on the very model of self-dealing capitalism for which the U.S. government has condemned China. The main components of the Biden administration’s strategy for competing economically with China involve subsidies to American companies. USAID spends most of its resources buying goods and services from U.S. firms. The Bipartisan Innovation Act would also provide billions in industry subsidies to ramp up U.S. semiconductor production. Worse, the U.S. response is being copied by its ally the United Kingdom. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is redirecting aid spending toward programs that use “world-class British expertise,” as the British Foreign Office generously described the approach as part of its aid strategy this past May. Perhaps other G-7 members will follow in their wake: certainly the European Union is looking for ways to disburse billions in subsidies to European firms planning to invest in developing countries.

 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2022-06-22/america-shouldnt-copy-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative?check_logged_in=1&utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=lo_flows&utm_campaign=registered_user_welcome&utm_term=email_1&utm_content=20230707

[Xerxes]

If I am not mistaken some of that Russian hydrocarbon piped through Ukraine is refined and used by Ukrainian military fighting Kremlin’ war machine … the irony in that  

 

to think of it, this is probably to put pressure on the pro Russian states (I.e Hungary etc)

[Spekulatius]

The cold war turning hot may not mean direct confrontation between China and the US, it could be by means of a proxy war. Most likely the cause would be around Taiwan, I think, but there could be other point of contact.

In any case, i think if you are western investor in China, and the cold war turns hot for whatever reason, you are looking at a zero here. If you invested in Apple, I think you are looking at a 2/3 loss here unless they diversified their supply chain when that unhappy day should come (likely takes a decade from here).

 

As investors, we can have an opinion on how things should be, but it doesn't matter. It is more important to observe. XJP has hardened his stance in foreign politics. Both Republicans and Democrats now regard China as an adversary. XJP has a stated goal to bring Taiwan back into the fold by 2027. US stated that they would defend Taiwan. This is what matters, not what you and I think.

 

China for me is "uninvestible" but that does not mean you can't speculate with Chinese stocks. I would personally keep the timeframe short and be aware of the wipeout risk. Others may have a different view.

[cubsfan]

You can apologize for China all you like. I’m simply saying China has proven their danger to the world. They are not at all apologetic about the disastrous lab leak. They said it originated from wet markets, and stymied all efforts to identify the true origin. China is definitely a world power and a dangerous one at that. Uncontrollable biological weapons tells you what you need to know.

 

Make all the excuses you like for them.

[Luke]

35 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

You can apologize for China all you like. I’m simply saying China has proven their danger to the world. They are not at all apologetic about the disastrous lab leak. They said it originated from wet markets, and stymied all efforts to identify the true origin. China is definitely a world power and a dangerous one at that. Uncontrollable biological weapons tells you what you need to know.

 

Make all the excuses you like for them.

Its just not the truth and so one sided, China has proven their danger to the world with what? Having a lab accident and not allowing foreigners to do research there afterwards? They suffered their fair share of Covid 19 too. Everybody talking about the "China threat" but what does that actually mean? Who is building military bases all over the world? Who is invading foreign countries under whatever reason? If China would do 1/10th of what the US does theyd be viciously attacked and the whole western media apparatus would bang out one negative piece after another. 

 

Uncontrollable biological weapons lol...i can only laugh about that. The US may as well hide Aliens in Area 51 too attack the russians with that soon.

 

Western investors have a complete bias against china and a blind eye for problems with and in the US. I am also not apologizing for china, all I want is to have a neutral view on the developments that are happening and to actually understand what's going on. 

 

[Luke]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

The cold war turning hot may not mean direct confrontation between China and the US, it could be by means of a proxy war. Most likely the cause would be around Taiwan, I think, but there could be other point of contact.

In any case, i think if you are western investor in China, and the cold war turns hot for whatever reason, you are looking at a zero here. If you invested in Apple, I think you are looking at a 2/3 loss here unless they diversified their supply chain when that unhappy day should come (likely takes a decade from here).

 

As investors, we can have an opinion on how things should be, but it doesn't matter. It is more important to observe. XJP has hardened his stance in foreign politics. Both Republicans and Democrats now regard China as an adversary. XJP has a stated goal to bring Taiwan back into the fold by 2027. US stated that they would defend Taiwan. This is what matters, not what you and I think.

 

China for me is "uninvestible" but that does not mean you can't speculate with Chinese stocks. I would personally keep the timeframe short and be aware of the wipeout risk. Others may have a different view.

Okay, so China will attack Taiwan and the US will deploy all their naval forces there? China can fire with all their missiles and both parties will be so severely weakened, Taiwan probably destroyed, the economy with it. What's realistic here? 

Most businesses will go down the shitter, severely. Inflation will be on unseen levels, so will be unemployment, huge depression for many years. Chomsky even went as far as saying if there is a war between china and the US "we are finished".  

 

Who would escalate it to that level? The US? Who wants this war?

 

Taiwan invasion is off the table for many years, military war is off the table per se. All they can do is some trade war and stop sending their machines, so what, China has access to TSMCs chips, they are spending much on research and i think its possible they come up with their own semiconductor champions. 

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Luca

[zippy1]

Just want to recommend a great website for those who want to observe China.  This QSThoery website is from CCP central office.
http://www.qstheory.cn/
This article written by XJP was published on 06/30.  This was originally from a speech made by XJP in March, 2022.  The reason of publishing this article after its first delivery likely is that it is the direction CCP will go.
I think members of CCP and officials of government will be thinking along the guidance of this article:
http://www.qstheory.cn/dukan/qs/2023-06/30/c_1129723161.htm 
The article is in Chinese but should be translatable with ChatGPT. 

[Blugolds]

34 minutes ago, Luca said:

Its just not the truth and so one sided, China has proven their danger to the world with what? Having a lab accident and not allowing foreigners to do research there afterwards? They suffered their fair share of Covid 19 too. Everybody talking about the "China threat" but what does that actually mean? Who is building military bases all over the world? Who is invading foreign countries under whatever reason? If China would do 1/10th of what the US does theyd be viciously attacked and the whole western media apparatus would bang out one negative piece after another. 

 

Uncontrollable biological weapons lol...i can only laugh about that. The US may as well hide Aliens in Area 51 too attack the russians with that soon.

 

Western investors have a complete bias against china and a blind eye for problems with and in the US. I am also not apologizing for china, all I want is to have a neutral view on the developments that are happening and to actually understand what's going on. 

 

China Is building the most brazen military bases in the world in the SCS. And any country that sends abortion death squads to villages to forcibly remove or “dispose” of babies because of a one child policy tells you everything you need to know. That would never happen in the US. So continue to advocate for the CCP. I do not want to live in a world controlled by the CCP, but from your frequent posts in this thread it seems that you’re all for it.  

[Luke]

13 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

Just want to recommend a great website for those who want to observe China.  This QSThoery website is from CCP central office.
http://www.qstheory.cn/
This article written by XJP was published on 06/30.  This was originally from a speech made by XJP in March, 2022.  The reason of publishing this article after its first delivery likely is that it is the direction CCP will go.
I think members of CCP and officials of government will be thinking along the guidance of this article:
http://www.qstheory.cn/dukan/qs/2023-06/30/c_1129723161.htm 
The article is in Chinese but should be translatable with ChatGPT. 

Thanks a lot for sharing @zippy1 I fast read through most of the sections, as expected the basic line is again: He wants what's good for the people and for the country. Also, the section with focussing not on just economic growth and development but also on good development, is miles better than what's happening in the US. If something harms the economy and the majority of the people, the CCP will ban and regulate it, no lobby, no questions asked. Might seem scary, but just look at the awful healthcare sector in the US. The massive control of businesses over congress, etc. Sure, the US is the most pro business country there is and it's a great place to invest, but stock market and economy are two different things. What about wage growth for average joe? What about diabetis medication for average susie? How do the citizens feel? Where is the wealth of the nation? How gated are the communities? 

 

I said it before, the huge inequality of where the wealth flows in the US harms their economic growth, political stability and sustainability. China knows that pressuring wages are stimulative for technological development and efficiency growth, they know that inefficient monopolies harm the overall economy and quality of life. Stock buybacks and dividends only get you so far. 

[Luke]

14 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

China Is building the most brazen military bases in the world in the SCS. And any country that sends abortion death squads to villages to forcibly remove or “dispose” of babies because of a one child policy tells you everything you need to know. That would never happen in the US. So continue to advocate for the CCP. I do not want to live in a world controlled by the CCP, but from your frequent posts in this thread it seems that you’re all for it.  

So China builds military bases close around their country. Look at where the US has military bases, everywhere. And they will threaten anybody who builds bases around them. 

 

And common man, abortion death squads, you cherry-pick one terrible thing of china and as I said, completely ignore US history and atrocities. 

 

This week, the non-profit National Security Archive, along with the National Declassification Center, published a batch of U.S. diplomatic cables covering that dark period. While the newly declassified documents further illustrated the horror of Indonesia’s 1965 mass murder, they also confirmed that U.S. authorities backed Suharto’s purge. Perhaps even more striking: As the documents show, U.S. officials knew most of his victims were entirely innocent. U.S. embassy officials even received updates on the executions and offered help to suppress media coverage. While crucial documents that could provide insight into U.S. and Indonesian activities at the time are still lacking, the broad outlines of the atrocity and America’s role are there for anyone who cares to look them up.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/the-indonesia-documents-and-the-us-agenda/543534/

 

 

If one points out the hypocrisy, you only hear "oh my god" "Putin lover" "communist" "CCP sheep"

 

Whenever the US does mass murders or tortures prisoners, its fine. When China does it: Nuke them now and take away their factories+stop sending them technology!!

 

China is fine as long as they produce American iPhones, as long as the dividends from Apple flow into the fat financial military district that the US has become!

Edited July 7, 2023 by Luca

[tnp20]

Not splitting hairs but taking a pragmatic approach here .....

 

Long term China is screwed, why ? :-

(i) Demographics issue will catch up but with delay

(ii) Lack of basic freedoms and rights (property rights) that go hand in hand with a true capitalistic society

(iii) World's best talent wont move there (unless we make USA a right wing white suprematist shit hole that hates foreigners)

(iv) Its miltary wont be > US + alliances

(v) Yuan wont be the reserve currency because XJP's policies are ultimately contradictory to true open flows of capital

 

Short/Medium term I am bullish, why ?:-

(i) China has to play the game set by the west to make progress towards their 2035 goal - ie wont rock the boat near term

(ii) Urbanization is 65%, Korea and Japan is 80-90% so another decade or two of strong growth still in the tank...reforming the Hokou system and greater urbanization move frees up rural labor to mitigating aging working population

(iii) They will continue to open up their markets and economy - this is what they have to do to have any chance of Yuan being the replacement for the dollar.

(iv) Huge potential in domestic consumption and developing the larger middle class

(v) Valuations in China are very cheap

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

52 minutes ago, Luca said:

Its just not the truth and so one sided, China has proven their danger to the world with what? Having a lab accident and not allowing foreigners to do research there afterwards? They suffered their fair share of Covid 19 too. Everybody talking about the "China threat" but what does that actually mean? Who is building military bases all over the world? Who is invading foreign countries under whatever reason? If China would do 1/10th of what the US does theyd be viciously attacked and the whole western media apparatus would bang out one negative piece after another. 

 

Uncontrollable biological weapons lol...i can only laugh about that. The US may as well hide Aliens in Area 51 too attack the russians with that soon.

 

Western investors have a complete bias against china and a blind eye for problems with and in the US. I am also not apologizing for china, all I want is to have a neutral view on the developments that are happening and to actually understand what's going on. 

 

You are SO wrong.

 

Its the coverup that China unrolled for years, not the lab leak. It’s the coverup.

[crs223]

“US spreads spreads war to push its agenda; COVID leak was an accident”.

 

“if you like abortion death squads so much, why don’t you move to China?“

 

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

You are SO wrong.

 

Its the coverup that China unrolled for years, not the lab leak. It’s the coverup.

 

1 minute ago, crs223 said:

“US spreads spreads war to push its agenda; COVID leak was an accident”.

 

“if you like abortion death squads so much, why don’t you move to China?“

 

It would be nice to getting back to sharing facts.

[Luke]

Outsourced manufacturing to the disadvantage of the average American worker (rust belt), financial sector that controls more than half of the world's economic productivity, more hedge funds than stocks in the US, own real citizens not getting wealthier, increasing political instability and extremism...they can't even compete in manufacturing anymore due to higher costs. Now if the factories are gone and industrial Asia starts developing their own superior products and starts exporting: 

 

Washington goes to war!

[Blugolds]

18 minutes ago, Luca said:

So China builds military bases close around their country. Look at where the US has military bases, everywhere. And they will threaten anybody who builds bases around them. 

 

And common man, abortion death squads, you cherry-pick one terrible thing of china and as I said, completely ignore US history and atrocities. 

 

This week, the non-profit National Security Archive, along with the National Declassification Center, published a batch of U.S. diplomatic cables covering that dark period. While the newly declassified documents further illustrated the horror of Indonesia’s 1965 mass murder, they also confirmed that U.S. authorities backed Suharto’s purge. Perhaps even more striking: As the documents show, U.S. officials knew most of his victims were entirely innocent. U.S. embassy officials even received updates on the executions and offered help to suppress media coverage. While crucial documents that could provide insight into U.S. and Indonesian activities at the time are still lacking, the broad outlines of the atrocity and America’s role are there for anyone who cares to look them up.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/the-indonesia-documents-and-the-us-agenda/543534/

 

 

If one points out the hypocrisy, you only hear "oh my god" "Putin lover" "communist" "CCP sheep"

 

Whenever the US does mass murders or tortures prisoners, its fine. When China does it: Nuke them now and take away their factories+stop sending them technology!!

 

China is fine as long as they produce American iPhones, as long as the dividends from Apple flow into the fat financial military district that the US has become!

one child policy ended in…2016!! And that is definitely not “one cherry picked thing” in chinas history. America is not perfect, far from it for sure. Plenty of skeletons in the closet. But if I have to chose I choose the USA x10000. 
 

I have zero problems with Chinese people, I am not anti China, I’m anti CCP. Now you take that however you want. Either you say they are different things or they are the same. If you say they are the same then you are just reiterating the point. There is no freedom in China. 
 

I can’t tell if you are more pro China or Anti US. You say you just want unbiased facts but then every post of yours, sometimes several in a row, are either bashing the US or advocating for how great China is. Surprised you’re on a message board whose namesake heralds from Canadian and US dirty companies, is there a Chinese alternative you would feel more comfortable in? No there is not…and we all know why Berkshire and Fairfax are not HQ’s in China…
 

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Blugolds11