Political Posts

[Viking]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

Not sure what that’s got to do with anything….what you reference is the early musing (brain farts) of Putin who was yet to be President of Russia….and was making come on eyes at the west…..that was about 21yrs ago! 

 

Since at least 2006 Putin has been crystal clear that Ukranian neutrality was a redline security issue for Russia akin to the Monroe Doctrine that the US has made crystal clear for about a 100yrs.

 

What’s come out in recent past via the Biden interview above, some interviews/talks Boris Johnson has done collecting speaking fees and Macron has alliuded too…..Putin since 2008 has at every bilateral engagement with Western leaders and with increasing frequency/urgency over time made Ukranian neutrality non-membership of NATO clear as a Russia redline…..I don’t agree with a policy of appeasement with Russia…..their maneuvers and strategic plays around the globe should be met with toe to toe by the West….in regard to Ukraine there was a serious failure of judgement on the part of the US and it’s allies….a failure to fully identify Ukraine’s strategic importance to Russia….it’s this failure which is the sin oft repeated by US diplomacy overseas….(1) the idea that nation building is even possible  (Ukraine/Afghanistan/Iraq) & (2) failing to assess your opponents red lines (Russia/Ukraine) and failure to identify your opponents resolve and staying power is ultimately much higher than yours (Afghanistan/Iraq/Ukraine/Vietnam+++++++).

The simplest answer is usually the best. It is obvious Putin is a mole for the West. He was likely recruited in St. Petersburg before his political career got going. He single-handedly has:

• revitalized NATO
• convinced Finland and Sweden to join NATO, when neither country wanted to before
• convinced all countries in Europe neighbouring Russia to quickly and heavily re-arm
• severed decades old economic linkages with Germany
• convinced Germany to re-arm
• set the Russian economy back a generation
• permanently lowered the living standards of current and future generations of Russian kids
• killed tens of thousands of young Russian men; turning what was already a demographic problem into a nightmare
• convinced tens of thousands of Russians to leave their country (lots of whom are educated)
• accelerated by decades the decline of the Russian state
• economically, made Russia a vassal state of China

Simply amazing what he has accomplished in less than 18 months. And i don’t think he is close to being done.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Viking

[cubsfan]

7 hours ago, Viking said:

The simplest answer is usually the best. It is obvious Putin is a mole for the West. He was likely recruited in St. Petersburg before his political career got going. He single-handedly has:

• revitalized NATO
• convinced Finland and Sweden to join NATO, when neither country wanted to before
• convinced all countries in Europe neighbouring Russia to quickly and heavily re-arm
• severed decades old economic linkages with Germany
• convinced Germany to re-arm
• set the Russian economy back a generation
• permanently lowered the living standards of current and future generations of Russian kids
• killed tens of thousands of young Russian men; turning what was already a demographic problem into a nightmare
• convinced tens of thousands of Russians to leave their country (lots of whom are educated)
• accelerated by decades the decline of the Russian state
• economically, made Russia a vassal state of China

Simply amazing what he has accomplished in less than 18 months. And i don’t think he is close to being done.

+ 1 on that!

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, Viking said:

The simplest answer is usually the best. It is obvious Putin is a mole for the West. He was likely recruited in St. Petersburg before his political career got going. He single-handedly has:

• revitalized NATO
• convinced Finland and Sweden to join NATO, when neither country wanted to before
• convinced all countries in Europe neighbouring Russia to quickly and heavily re-arm
• severed decades old economic linkages with Germany
• convinced Germany to re-arm
• set the Russian economy back a generation
• permanently lowered the living standards of current and future generations of Russian kids
• killed tens of thousands of young Russian men; turning what was already a demographic problem into a nightmare
• convinced tens of thousands of Russians to leave their country (lots of whom are educated)
• accelerated by decades the decline of the Russian state
• economically, made Russia a vassal state of China

Simply amazing what he has accomplished in less than 18 months. And i don’t think he is close to being done.

Great list. You can add that managed to get India to pivoting away from Russia. Greatest CIA intelligence spyop ever that nobody talks about.

 

[changegonnacome]

9 hours ago, Viking said:

The simplest answer is usually the best. It is obvious Putin is a mole for the West. He was likely recruited in St. Petersburg before his political career got going. He single-handedly has:

• revitalized NATO
• convinced Finland and Sweden to join NATO, when neither country wanted to before
• convinced all countries in Europe neighbouring Russia to quickly and heavily re-arm
• severed decades old economic linkages with Germany
• convinced Germany to re-arm
• set the Russian economy back a generation
• permanently lowered the living standards of current and future generations of Russian kids
• killed tens of thousands of young Russian men; turning what was already a demographic problem into a nightmare
• convinced tens of thousands of Russians to leave their country (lots of whom are educated)
• accelerated by decades the decline of the Russian state
• economically, made Russia a vassal state of China

Simply amazing what he has accomplished in less than 18 months. And i don’t think he is close to being done.

 

Yep great list @Viking....if your hinting that this is a great outcome for the US from a global strategic competition point of view........I kind of agree with wholeheartedly....to it I would add making the EU energy dependent on the USA for LNG over time too ensuring their continued role as a client state of the US.........where we differ of course........is that a whole Country (Ukraine) has been be tossed on the fire to achieve your list of US 'wins' & where I've argued that this conflict was avoidable with just tiny bit more accommodation to Russia's security concerns*..... the above US strategic aims in the region (Russia containment/outright hostility).......has now come at cost of ten of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian young men dead............and millions upon millions of Ukrainian refugee families strewn across Europe.

 

* at its core however if you believe Putin the imperialist story you believe this conflict was unavoidable......if unavoidable of course you think of only the good things that have come out of it from a US strategic point of view and that's understandable....its more uncomfortable to do what I've done.......which is to ask was their a third way where the West could have handled the Ukraine portfolio with a degree more humility & caution to the complexity of a small country (Ukraine) neighbouring a large powerful country like Russia. The problem with the zealots in the State Department in every US nation building exercise I've ever studied that's ended exactly like the situation we have in Ukraine....is a complete lack of understanding of history and complete inability once words like 'freedom' 'democracy' 'liberty' are thrown around in regards to a nation.... to come to a pragmatic US foreign policy strategy that might achieve both US security aims in a region but also optimize to what practically work out best for the people of that nation.

[changegonnacome]

9 hours ago, Viking said:

economically, made Russia a vassal state of China

 

One quibble with your list - the above is a complete and utter DISASTER for US foreign policy over the long pull for the only strategic competition that truly MATTERS this century - USA vs China

 

Pairing up Russia so completely - a resource and energy rich country to your greatest rival who's achilles heel is their lack of energy & resources...does that sound like a good outcome?....it will prove to be a deep deep strategic blunder for US foreign policy.......separating Russia from China should have been aim of the game....not driving Russia into the arms of China.

[John Hjorth]

10 hours ago, Viking said:

The simplest answer is usually the best. It is obvious Putin is a mole for the West. He was likely recruited in St. Petersburg before his political career got going. He single-handedly has:

• revitalized NATO
• convinced Finland and Sweden to join NATO, when neither country wanted to before
• convinced all countries in Europe neighbouring Russia to quickly and heavily re-arm
• severed decades old economic linkages with Germany
• convinced Germany to re-arm
• set the Russian economy back a generation
• permanently lowered the living standards of current and future generations of Russian kids
• killed tens of thousands of young Russian men; turning what was already a demographic problem into a nightmare
• convinced tens of thousands of Russians to leave their country (lots of whom are educated)
• accelerated by decades the decline of the Russian state
• economically, made Russia a vassal state of China

Simply amazing what he has accomplished in less than 18 months. And i don’t think he is close to being done.

 

The ramifications for Russia in the future will become severe for its population, allmost beyond imagination, a melting icecube, gradually disintegrating and collapsing into a hellhole where noboday wants to stay or live, untill a material change in tracjectory for the future is set, based on demands for such changes by the incumbent population [by demands for societal reforms, uproar, revolution, coup d'état, civil war etc.]

 

Statista [July 12^th 2023] : Male and female population in Russia as of January 1, 2022, by age group (in millions)

 

 

I don't think I have to explain anything to anyone a member here CoBF about how to interpret these statistics, related to @Vikings comments above, combined with thinking about what has happened to the graph since January 1^st 2022.

 

A turnaround, that is so far from even beginning to look like a turnaround, long way ahead just to begin looking like a turnaround, after which it actually has to become turnaround, that actually turns.

Edited July 12, 2023 by John Hjorth

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

One quibble with your list - the above is a complete and utter DISASTER for US foreign policy over the long pull for the only strategic competition that truly MATTERS this century - USA vs China

 

Pairing up Russia so completely - a resource and energy rich country to your greatest rival who's achilles heel is their lack of energy & resources...does that sound like a good outcome?....it will prove to be a deep deep strategic blunder for US foreign policy.......separating Russia from China should have been aim of the game....not driving Russia into the arms of China.

First you are assuming that separation was ever possible. Dictatorships always cling together for mutual self protection.

 

Second, China always had and will have access to Russian resources. Maybe they build more pipelines but again that was inevitable. 

[ValueArb]

On 7/11/2023 at 6:59 AM, cubsfan said:

That has got to be the dumbest political analysis I’ve ever heard. What an old fool Chomsky is…

 

He asks the question “Why would China be a threat?” - then runs his mouth about a litany of bullshit - totally avoiding ANY mention of a Taiwan invasion or the COVID coverup/disaster.

 

Yet , then he even goes onto accuse Israel of actively poisoning 1M Palestinian children.

 

The guy is a total loon that refuses to even talk about the truth.

China has been threatening Taiwan for 70 years, and will never do anything because shutting down the South China Sea would be the CCP committing suicide.

[cubsfan]

^^^ Very true - Russia committed Suicide, Iraq did with Kuwait.  
 

There are lots of good logical reasons NOT to do something - until you have an unpredictable leader pitted against weakness.

 

It’s been happening for ages.

Edited July 12, 2023 by cubsfan

[Luke]

On 7/11/2023 at 3:59 PM, cubsfan said:

That has got to be the dumbest political analysis I’ve ever heard. What an old fool Chomsky is…

 

He asks the question “Why would China be a threat?” - then runs his mouth about a litany of bullshit - totally avoiding ANY mention of a Taiwan invasion or the COVID coverup/disaster.

 

Yet , then he even goes onto accuse Israel of actively poisoning 1M Palestinian children.

 

The guy is a total loon that refuses to even talk about the truth.

You can say all you want about Chomsky but id say that his opinion is worth listening to for someone who has teached at MIT for fifty years and observed politics since 70 years+. 

 

We discussed the Covid disaster already, that was not on purpose at all. China probably fucked up, but it was not used as a threat. China is very dependent on Taiwan too, the conflict with Taiwan is an actual international law conflict, the US doesn't even deny the One China policy. 

 

He then talks about the US government heavily interfering with politics in other countries, where they are at least partly responsible for the death of many but yes, the threat is all on China...

 

Insult him, doesn't make your opinion any better. 

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by Luca

[cubsfan]

12 minutes ago, Luca said:

You can say all you want about Chomsky but id say that his opinion is worth listening to for someone who has teached at MIT for fifty years and observed politics since 70 years+. 

 

We discussed the Covid disaster already, that was not on purpose at all. China probably fucked up, but it was not used as a threat. China is very dependent on Taiwan too, the conflict with Taiwan is an actual international law conflict, the US doesn't even deny the One China policy. 

 

He then talks about the US government heavily interfering with politics in other countries, where they are at least partly responsible for the death of many but yes, the threat is all on China...

 

Insult him, doesn't make your opinion any better. 

 

 

All anyone has to do is listen to the clip. His academic credentials mean nothing to me after viewing the full clip. I know absolutely nothing about the guy. There are thousands of academics have not one ounce of commons sense. Don't take the insult personally - they are his own words.

 

Naseem Taleb wrote a wonderful article long ago "Intellectual, yet idiot"

 

Try reading it.

[Xerxes]

 

One can make a list of how ridiculous Sir Winston Churchill career was up to the eve of Second World War. Including the Dardanelles expedition disaster, his feud with Lord Fisher etc. 

 

One can make a list of how awesome Putin achievement was in pulling Russia out of the Yelstinfestation, taming down the oligarchy and the jolly years of prosperity when he had the tailwind of hydrocarbon (you may think it was the price of barrel, more important was production increase)if a snapshot was taken in 2007. 
 

Like the compounded growth rate of a stock that highly sensitive on entry and exit point, the geopolitical cycles are also sensitive to when one take that snapshot and makes the list. 

 

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yep great list @Viking....if your hinting that this is a great outcome for the US from a global strategic competition point of view........I kind of agree with wholeheartedly....to it I would add making the EU energy dependent on the USA for LNG over time too ensuring their continued role as a client state of the US.........where we differ of course........is that a whole Country (Ukraine) has been be tossed on the fire to achieve your list of US 'wins' & where I've argued that this conflict was avoidable with just tiny bit more accommodation to Russia's security concerns*..... the above US strategic aims in the region (Russia containment/outright hostility).......has now come at cost of ten of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian young men dead............and millions upon millions of Ukrainian refugee families strewn across Europe.

 

* at its core however if you believe Putin the imperialist story you believe this conflict was unavoidable......if unavoidable of course you think of only the good things that have come out of it from a US strategic point of view and that's understandable....its more uncomfortable to do what I've done.......which is to ask was their a third way where the West could have handled the Ukraine portfolio with a degree more humility & caution to the complexity of a small country (Ukraine) neighbouring a large powerful country like Russia. The problem with the zealots in the State Department in every US nation building exercise I've ever studied that's ended exactly like the situation we have in Ukraine....is a complete lack of understanding of history and complete inability once words like 'freedom' 'democracy' 'liberty' are thrown around in regards to a nation.... to come to a pragmatic US foreign policy strategy that might achieve both US security aims in a region but also optimize to what practically work out best for the people of that nation.

 

Yeah, IDK - perhaps the correct question is What do the Europeans feel about all this? Do they feel threatened by Russian's actions?  Take the USA completely out of it.  What does Europe want? Haven't the Europeans accommodated Russia for years, trying to be a good neighbor? and then this?

 

The US is just the ally here. Our borders aren't threatened.

Edited July 12, 2023 by cubsfan

[John Hjorth]

2 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

 

One can make a list of how ridiculous Sir Winston Churchill career was up to the eve of Second World War. Including the Dardanelles expedition disaster, his feud with Lord Fisher etc. 

 

One can make a list of how awesome Putin achievement was in pulling Russia out of the Yelstinfestation, taming down the oligarchy and the jolly years of prosperity when he had the tailwind of hydrocarbon (you may think it was the price of barrel, more important was production increase)if a snapshot was taken in 2007. 
 

Like the compounded growth rate of a stock that highly sensitive on entry and exit point, the geopolitical cycles are also sensitive to when one take that snapshot and makes the list. 

 

 

So what, @Xerxes ? Like talking about running what into the ground? Putin is 71 years old. The stock that has already killed him has the ticker $RUSSIA.

[james22]

33 minutes ago, Luca said:

You can say all you want about Chomsky . . .

 

Pretty sure I'd be given a time-out if I did.

[Luke]

14 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

All anyone has to do is listen to the clip. His academic credentials mean nothing to me after viewing the full clip. I know absolutely nothing about the guy. There are thousands of academics have not one ounce of commons sense. Don't take the insult personally - they are his own words.

 

Naseem Taleb wrote a wonderful article long ago "Intellectual, yet idiot"

 

Try reading it.

What is the problem with what he said? What did he say that makes him an "Idiot"? 

 

Academic credentials do matter to me:

 

Recent research on citations in three different citation indices show that Professor Chomsky is one of the most cited individuals in works published in the past 20 years.

 

 

In fact, his 3,874 citations in the Arts and Humanities Citation Index between 1980 and 1992 make him the most cited living person in that period and the eighth most cited source overrall--just behind famed psychiatrist Sigmund Freud and just ahead of philosopher Georg Hegel.

 

From 1972 to 1992, Professor Chomsky was cited 7,449 times in the Social Science Citation Index-likely the greatest number of times for a living person there as well, although the research into those numbers isn't complete. In addition, from 1974 to 1992 he was cited 1,619 times in the Science Citation Index.

"What it means is that he is very widely read across disciplines and that his work is used by researchers across disciplines," said Theresa A. Tobin, the Humanities Librarian who checked the numbers.

 

 

[Luke]

Calling him an idiot while claiming "I know absolutely nothing about the guy" doesn't look very promising to me. He wrote so many great books, manufacturing consent, hegemony or survival etc

Edited July 12, 2023 by Luca

[Xerxes]

2 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

So what, @Xerxes ? Like talking about running what into the ground? Putin is 71 years old. The stock that has already killed him has the ticker $RUSSIA.

ehhhh I thought the ticker was $USSR

 

and I also thought several years ago that Zelensky was a comedian who was going to be eaten alive. And I don’t think i was in the minority. 

 

we don’t know what will happen. Everything we say is just an aggregate of our historical biases. 
 

how many people here keep contrasting Bakhmut with the battle of Verdun and then to Stalingrad. It was neither. It was the battle of Bakhmut. 

[Luke]

3 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Pretty sure I'd be given a time-out if I did.

Gangster!

[cubsfan]

^^^. There ya' go @Luca You can't argue your own case - so you argue with the "supposed higher authority" - namely an academic loon.

 

YOU are the one that posted the idiotic clip of the guy not me. Everyone can listen to the clip and decide for themselves how insane this guy is. 

 

So you just keep posting his credentials - and I'll remain unimpressed.

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^. There ya' go @Luca You can't argue your own case - so you argue with the "supposed higher authority" - namely an academic loon.

 

YOU are the one that posted the idiotic clip of the guy not me. Everyone can listen to the clip and decide for themselves how insane this guy is. 

 

So you just keep posting his credentials - and I'll remain unimpressed.

I asked you to elaborate what makes him an idiot according to that clip? 

 

I also disagreed with you that academic credentials dont matter in political debates, they matter to me. You shared that they dont matter to you but i have a lot of respect for an academic and knowledge giant like chomsky. 

 

Please elaborate precisely why you think chomsky is an "academic loon".

Edited July 12, 2023 by Luca

[james22]

Here's a start:

 

https://www.amazon.com/Anti-Chomsky-Reader-Peter-Collier/dp/189355497X

[changegonnacome]

58 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

First you are assuming that separation was ever possible. Dictatorships always cling together for mutual self protection.

 

Second, China always had and will have access to Russian resources. Maybe they build more pipelines but again that was inevitable. 

 

The separation was going quite well up until recently.....so much so that China had its belt and road initiative to desperately try to secure resources from the middle east and Africa. China certainly didnt think it was inevitable that Russia would be its energy bitch?

 

Put it this way - its certainly possible to have Russia and China less connected at the hip than they are now. Isolating Russia economically such that its whole economic existence is tied to China is dumb beyond imagination and almost ensures China's regionally dominance in Asia over time......cause you basically handed over a BIG gas station which is Russia to China....such that naval blockade of China in the future from a energy standpoint will cease to matter because all their energy is coming over pipelines across Siberia and Mongolia.....its a disastrous outcome over time from a strategic standpoint. It just is.

 

A crippled, wounded vasal state Russia is actually what Chinese wet dreams are made of..........its like handing over the permian basin to your greatest enemy......its so dumb it beggars belief. Honestly there's no good way to spin it.

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, Luca said:

I asked you to elaborate what makes him an idiot according to that clip? 

 

I also disagreed with you that academic credentials dont matter in political debates, they matter to me. You shared that they dont matter to you but i have a lot of respect for an academic and knowledge giant like chomsky. 

 

Please elaborate precisely why you think chomsky is an "academic loon".

What is your problem dude? I made it very clear.

 

He avoids ANY mention of why China is NOT trusted on the world stage - namely uncontrolled biological weapons and the potential coming invasion of Taiwan. Not a fucking word. Really?

 

Then the moron goes onto spout off about Israel intentionally poisoning 1M Palestinian children.

 

Why would I take a word of this guy seriously?

 

 

[changegonnacome]

42 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Yeah, IDK - perhaps the correct question is What do the Europeans feel about all this? Do they feel threatened by Russian's actions?  Take the USA completely out of it.  What does Europe want? Haven't the Europeans accommodated Russia for years, trying to be a good neighbor? and then this?

 

The US is just the ally here. Our borders aren't threatened.

 

Read Macron's recent statements on European or more precisely EU security and military capability and what he calls the 'strategic' independence thats required and would bring....subtext is that Europe can see the stupdity of American foreign policy in Ukraine......in the backrooms of Europe this Ukrainian conflict and the impact its had on Europe is very much viewed as another American foreign policy disaster folly......where the Ukranian people are the direct collateral damage and the European economy is too. Put simply Ukraine is Afghanistan 2.0.

 

As I've said before idealism (democracy & freedom) is something that can get applied in other peoples neighborhoods (Vietnam/Afghanistan/Ukraine/Iraq) and it leads to disastrous consequences almost without exception. The record here is just abysmal and not a single person can argue with America's attempts at nation building overseas they are a solid F MINUS. The countries subject to US interference/help invariably get wrecked.

 

What Macron is getting at is in his recent comments.....is a Europe that has the military wherewithal to be a counter balance to US counter productive interference that usually occurs in far flung places......but in the case of Ukraine US nation building/interference blew up in Europe's face this time precisely because Europe is too junior a partner to US military capability (but lets be clear the US likes that......the US wants a vasal state Europe.....one dependent on US energy versus Russia). Trump was dead wrong to demand more NATO spend by partners........you want your strategic military partners in a far flung region to be a little weak such that you can bully them around to do what you want.

 

Macron is completely spot on in his recent comments.......the EU needs it own military/security capability......and to not let the US play its nation building/strategic games with enemies on the European continent again..

Edited July 12, 2023 by changegonnacome