2021 Returns Thread

[gokou3]

30% IRR in 2021.  Finally outperform S&P500 again after 2 years of (severe) underperformances.  PVF, ATD, BRK.B and ENB helped.

[kab60]

Anyone have the link to the 2020 thread? I can't find it.

 

Was up 65% in 2021, which is sorta life-changing. Big bets on auto dealerships, fiber and tobacco going into 2022.

 

I am probably an optimist to a fault, though I mostly dabble in slow-changing and boring industries. So without FED intervention last year, it would've looked very differently.

 

I am more defensively postured atm than before but that is mainly a function of risk/reward and not a big macro call (below returns rounded up/down and somewhat from memory).

 

2021: 65%

2020: 45%

2019: 23%

2018: -7%

2017: 19%

2016: 45%

2015: 13%

 

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by kab60

[writser]

@kab60 here you go. Also, congrats on an excellent year! You da man.

 

I'm up either 25% or 40%, depending on where I mark my assets ..  The difference is mostly explained by UDFI, which has a last traded price of $1.40 but trades in the secondary market at $6.26 after some good news this year. Same for BMY CVR's, marked at zero but the fully funded ones trade at $1.50 in the secondary market. I also acquired a couple of large tax assets / receivables that do not show up in my brokerage accounts but are definitely worth  a few percent. So, whatever, pick the number you like. I'm going with 25%, the additional 15% will show up at some point in time in my CAGR. And on top of the above I own quite a few assets that are now listed in the OTC expert market. Prices there flip all over the place. It feels like this year determining my return is an art rather than a science.

 

More important than the actual number is whether the underlying process was solid during the year and on that front I'm pretty happy. In 2020 I felt like what I was able to achieve was really impeded by lockdowns, having a little kid in the house, being worried, etc. It was a frustrating year. In 2021 we had a much better home setup (better secluded work spots, clearly defined work schedules), i.e. we were much better prepared for Corona / work from home. And I guess I also tempered my expectations a bit regarding what I would be able to do. Even though we had a second kid last year and contractors remodeled our house while we were working from home I felt much better about getting some time and effort into my portfolio. Though perhaps, ex ante, that is also explained by the better results ..

 

In terms of my investing, my biggest strength but also my biggest weakness is that I'm probably too risk-averse. My portfolio is diversified, unlevered and I dabble a lot in special situations. I haven't had a down year since I started investing / trading and my average annual return is about 20% with a 10% standard deviation. So I expect to underperform in bull markets (i.e. you are never going to get 50% p.a. if you own a few merger arbs with an expected 20% IRR) and outperform in bear markets. Unfortunately there hasn't been a real bear market since I started investing  .. So I'm pretty happy to keep up with all major indices in a great year.

 

No super large losers this year and no super large winners either. I don't see the need to discuss particular names because I haven't been very active here during the year. Over the years I find myself posting less and less here. With two young kids in the house I don't have time to browse forums all day long and, well, there's just a lot being discussed here that doesn't really fit my style so I feel my time is better spent elsewhere. No hard feelings, I like this place!

 

One last thing to mention, I don't know how you guys feel but I'm not particularly excited about my portfolio (nor the market) right now. No high conviction stuff positions, basically everything is up for sale.

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by writser

[lnofeisone]

~80% in the taxable helped massively by energy names going up 100-300% (CEQP, AR, MPC, SWN, CLMT), WFC, and ETH (which I'm starting to unload and I own a rig). Late UNG short helped. At some point I was about 40% energy in taxable which was terrifying so I started selling a bit too early and left a lot on the table. Biggest laggards are ET and AVLR (still long both). Some detractions were busted plays (missed timing by a month) on LMND and PTON as I put decent amount into both of those bets. Retirement account underperformed S&P. Sitting on a 80/20 equity bond mix. Up about 38% across both. 

 

We also finished renovation at our primary residence and our neighborhood in DC exploded (maybe this another positive sigh for FRPH as we are few blocks south of Bryant St?). We got an unsolicited bid ~45% higher than what we paid 2 years ago (20% if you take into account reno that we put in) which is inline with that houses on our street are selling for. 

 

I had a rough year last year, underperforming S&P, being up only about 10% or so. Still trying to figure out 2022 but been nibbling at some defense, tobacco, chemicals, banks, and pot. Weird and eclectic mix. 

[kab60]

1 hour ago, writser said:

@kab60 here you go. Also, congrats on an excellent year! You da man.

 

I'm up either 25% or 40%, depending on where I mark my assets ..  The difference is mostly explained by UDFI, which has a last traded price of $1.40 but trades in the secondary market at $6.26 after some good news this year. Same for BMY CVR's, marked at zero but the fully funded ones trade at $1.50 in the secondary market. I also acquired a couple of large tax assets / receivables that do not show up in my brokerage accounts but are definitely worth  a few percent. So, whatever, pick the number you like. I'm going with 25%, the additional 15% will show up at some point in time in my CAGR. And on top of the above I own quite a few assets that are now listed in the OTC expert market. Prices there flip all over the place. It feels like this year determining my return is an art rather than a science.

 

More important than the actual number is whether the underlying process was solid during the year and on that front I'm pretty happy. In 2020 I felt like what I was able to achieve was really impeded by lockdowns, having a little kid in the house, being worried, etc. It was a frustrating year. In 2021 we had a much better home setup (better secluded work spots, clearly defined work schedules), i.e. we were much better prepared for Corona / work from home. And I guess I also tempered my expectations a bit regarding what I would be able to do. Even though we had a second kid last year and contractors remodeled our house while we were working from home I felt much better about getting some time and effort into my portfolio. Though perhaps, ex ante, that is also explained by the better results ..

 

In terms of my investing, my biggest strength but also my biggest weakness is that I'm probably too risk-averse. My portfolio is diversified, unlevered and I dabble a lot in special situations. I haven't had a down year since I started investing / trading and my average annual return is about 20% with a 10% standard deviation. So I expect to underperform in bull markets (i.e. you are never going to get 50% p.a. if you own a few merger arbs with an expected 20% IRR) and outperform in bear markets. Unfortunately there hasn't been a real bear market since I started investing  .. So I'm pretty happy to keep up with all major indices in a great year.

 

No super large losers this year and no super large winners either. I don't see the need to discuss particular names because I haven't been very active here during the year. Over the years I find myself posting less and less here. With two young kids in the house I don't have time to browse forums all day long and, well, there's just a lot being discussed here that doesn't really fit my style so I feel my time is better spent elsewhere. No hard feelings, I like this place!

 

One last thing to mention, I don't know how you guys feel but I'm not particularly excited about my portfolio (nor the market) right now. No high conviction stuff positions, basically everything is up for sale.

 

 

Thanks, writser. Better lucky than good.

 

If I could, I'd probably try and run my money as you and Hielko, as I think you're among the best from a risk adjusted perspective. But I am not smart enough, nor do I have the discipline, and it would also hurt tax wise. I pay 42% on capital gains, so I have drifted towards GARPy stuff I can hold for a long time. It seems to work reasonably well, as most of my stuff is pretty boring, which means it rarely gets obscenely expensive and forces me to sell. But I've also flipped quiet a bit of sardines in the last two years, more so in 2020, as the amount of opportunities around was just incredible, and I do have a pretty fat tax bill coming up.

 

I agree the current environment isn't quiet as appealing as late 2020, but I do think there are some pretty great opportunities around, which fits my scope. Espescially coming into year end, where there was a lot of interesting selling in names. Which might be due to a lot of people with good returns over the last 2 years, which might've needed some losers to offset their gains (and you had a lot of new retail investors).

Edited January 3, 2022 by kab60

[Spekulatius]

Roughly 95% in taxable counts , ~25% in IRA’s. The difference was $LAACZ.

[flesh]

3 hours ago, kab60 said:

Anyone have the link to the 2020 thread? I can't find it.

 

Was up 65% in 2021, which is sorta life-changing. Big bets on auto dealerships, fiber and tobacco going into 2022.

 

I am probably an optimist to a fault, though I mostly dabble in slow-changing and boring industries. So without FED intervention last year, it would've looked very differently.

 

I am more defensively postured atm than before but that is mainly a function of risk/reward and not a big macro call (below returns rounded up/down and somewhat from memory).

 

2021: 65%

2020: 45%

2019: 23%

2018: -7%

2017: 19%

2016: 45%

2015: 13%

 

 

Hell ya! Nice one! 

[Castanza]

+33ish% across my IRA and Brokerage. Not amazing considering the market, but I'm happy with it.  

 

My positions haven't changed much this past year. Honestly haven't put much time into anything and have been piggy backing off a lot of really solid work you guys put in. Life has been crazy busy for me (school ,side jobs, work promotion, getting settled after moving, trying for a kid).  If there was a tip jar, a lot of you would certainly be getting some beer money! So thanks to everyone on this board. 

 

New positions for the year

APTS, T, LMT, VZ, PSTH

 

Continued to add to ATCO, MSGE, MSGS and probably a few others.

 

Core: MSFT, RTX, GOOG, drove results as a lot of stuff I've been adding too has been flat (looking at you Atlas )

 

Regrets

FNMAS - Could turn out alright, but I regret having my capital tied up in this. Not holding my breath. 

PSTH - Free money sure, but same as above. There were other options and better immediate uses without having all the uncertainty. Wish I would have sized it slightly smaller than I did. 

 

[competitive-advantage]

Great to hear your gains and stories  And thanks for all your insights during the year.
 

2021: 15,51%
 

I’m happy about that. I shifted back to individual stocks in 2021 and learned a lot about which stocks I would not by today. Some of the reasons were too low ROI, low/no margin of safety, not in my area of competence and focusing on dataroma.

The stocks were: Berkshire Hathaway, Big Lots, Electronic Arts, Alibaba and Escalade Inc.

 

The one stock I would still have bought today with my new checklist is Meta Platforms. That investment have gained 36,7% since my purchase in february.

 

After joining this site I have got the patience to wait and the facts to make better decisions in the future.

[Dynamic]

Pre-tax market-price return CY 2021: +79.61% in USD, +81.44% in GBP.

Annualised returns since 31 Dec 2015: +27.41% in USD, +29.91% in GBP (10.05% annualised outperformance vs SP500TR, 22.98% annualised outperf vs FTSE100TRI)

 

Intrinsic Value return CY 2021: +34.16% in USD, +39.57% in GBP.

Annualised IV increase since 31 Dec 2015: 24.48% in USD, 27.41% in GBP using consistent methodology.

 

My actual more nuanced IV estimate at present is higher than my old methodology which seemed OK before, in which case IV increase looks like:

New method IV return CY 2021: +53.77% in USD, +59.98% in GBP.

Annualised new method IV increase since 31 Dec 2015: +27.55% in USD, +29.99% in GBP - close to the annualised market-value returns over those 6 years.

 

I suspect the S&P500 outperformance will lower to single digits soon.

 

My spouse and I gave up our jobs towards the end of this year, and will soon be taking money out of our portfolio each year. We actually did cease our usual investment rate (about 50% of combined income after tax) and then withdrew a little cash from the portfolio to pay for some pretty extensive home remodelling. We also moved some of our profits into tax-sheltered accounts to the maximum extent possible after realising some gains. We are on track to have our largest ever tax bill to pay in Jan 2023 thanks to capital gains realised this summer, less refunds from pay-as-you-earn from quitting our jobs in the middle of the year.

 

While I do now calculate IRR, I model annual rate of return as the mean average of these two calculations:

(Year End Valuation / Previous Year End Valuation) - 1

(Year End Valuation / (Previous Year End Valuation + Cash Added During Year)) - 1

then display this as a percentage.

For the first time the second figure is higher the the first as Cash Added was negative.

 

As anticipated in last year's thread, our portfolio was positioned well going into 2021 after actually losing market value slightly and I took some gains by 5th April (UK tax year end) to use tax-free Capital Gains and got a modest tax rebate. Realised some very large gains in the summer which will incur between 10 and 20% effective capital gains tax rate payable Jan 2023.

Edited January 3, 2022 by Dynamic
Typo - on largest >on track

[JGBRK]

Taxable Account: +27.2

Roth: +15.8

Traditional: +26.5

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2015: ~(20)

2016: 24.7

2017: 25.9

2018: (-14.1)

2019: 25.5

2020: (4.80)

 

2021: 18.8

 

 

 

 

[LC]

About 43% in my investible accounts. 

 

Private RE holdings went up ~14% on an unlevered basis but I maintain 80% LTV so much higher cash on cash returns. 

[rkbabang]

My largest accounts are my retirement non-taxable accounts which did 39% (I hold about 30 stocks in these accounts many did well).

My 2nd largest is my crypto accounts which did 152% (mostly due to ETH which went up way more than BTC in 2021).

Finally there is my taxable account which did 112% in 2021 mostly due to LAACZ being bought out and APTS calls.

 

EDIT: there is also private real estate which went up in value substantially in 2021, but I don't have an exact number for that.

Edited January 4, 2022 by rkbabang

[boilermaker75]

33%

[maplevalue]

2021 IRR of 14.02% across whole portfolio; was a decent year considering ~33% of my portfolio is EM.

 

Just looking at my single name stock picks it was 26% (about 1/5 of my portfolio). Was more active this year thanks in part to being part of this great community. Hope to get more active in 2022.

[hillfronter83]

Did about 18% in 2021. Wasn't great compare to the overall market, but pretty happy about the result. Thanks to all the people posted ideas and analysis, leaned a ton from this board. Wish everyone much success in 2022!

[gary17]

i had a really excellent year.  i don't think the % means much to anyone, other than myself.  i beat the market this year, mainly coming from Xpel, TSU.to, TSLA (which I sold around $900 - $950), GOOGL/FB/MSFT/AAPL, IBG.to, CSU.to , ATCO, BAC, and finally FairFax.      many many thanks to the smart contributors on the forum.   i have a day job  so haven't been able to do as much research / contribution as I like, but am really appreciative of all the 'free' information this forum has provided, thanks to all & Sanjeev. 

 

 all the money can't buy a covid-free world where people are less divided....  we can hug each other,,,  and i would get back to travelling, connecting with friends & relatives overseas...     hopefully 2022 delivers on  sub-par results for me, and excellent results on happiness

 

[ourkid8]

2021:  Grew my portfolio 68% YoY

 

Biggest winner:  Blackberry - Thank you Reddit and Trisura

Biggest loser:  BABA

[Fitz]

2021 - 12.3%

2020 - 79.9%

 

Winners - DISCA went for 2.5 bags and happen to sell around 70. FB, GOOG, BYDDY went up a bit, trimed the position and invested into BABA and TENCENT

 

Losers - BABA, TECHY Investment in BABA is down by nearly half and is about 20% of assets. Sold December 28 or 29th as I had a lot of realized gains from the BYD and DISCA sale, I have never sold for tax reasons and when looking at the huge bill I had coming, decided to offset those. Hopefully this does not turn into a huge mistake picking up pennies and losing dollars. 

[ValueArb]

37% with money under management for an average of 9 months. The one account I controlled for full 12 months returned 49%.

[gary17]

On 1/3/2022 at 4:39 PM, rkbabang said:

My largest accounts are my retirement non-taxable accounts which did 39% (I hold about 30 stocks in these accounts many did well).

My 2nd largest is my crypto accounts which did 152% (mostly due to ETH which went up way more than BTC in 2021).

Finally there is my taxable account which did 112% in 2021 mostly due to LAACZ being bought out and APTS calls.

 

EDIT: there is also private real estate which went up in value substantially in 2021, but I don't have an exact number for that.

@rkbabang , how do you 'value' ETH & BTC since these 'assets' do not generate income ?   i just don't know how to have any sense of understanding or even guessing what they should be worth relative to fiat currencies 
THX!

Edited January 6, 2022 by gary17

[rkbabang]

26 minutes ago, gary17 said:

@rkbabang , how do you 'value' ETH & BTC since these 'assets' do not generate income ?   i just don't know how to have any sense of understanding or even guessing what they should be worth relative to fiat currencies 
THX!

 

I don't think you can think of them the same way you think of stocks or real estate.  Gold or other commodities are a closer analog, but not perfect either.  There is supply & demand, there are the network effects.    Bitcoin is a store of value today and may become a widely used currency someday.  Also it may be used for dapps/fintech/defi etc.  My thesis is that there will only ever be 21 Million of them in existence and the demand for them will cause the price to sky rocket in the next decade or two.  I do think the price stabilizes as some point, but that is a long way off.  If you are really interested in understanding the thesis for Bitcoin read "The Bitcoin Standard" by Dr. Saifedean Ammous.   For ETH, my thesis is a little bit shakier.  I'm not as sure of ETH as I am of BTC. I think BTC might win in the end even for defi.  But right now ETH is where all the interesting things are happening in the defi world and I think the next few years will see a lot of growth and increased demand for ETH.  It is too early to tell.  I do think that anyone who doesn't have at least a percent or three of their portfolio in BTC is going to be sorry someday.

 

[Longnose]

EDIT: in spirit of the overall thread 

Overall 2021 return ~32%

 

1 hour ago, gary17 said:

@rkbabang , how do you 'value' ETH & BTC since these 'assets' do not generate income ?   i just don't know how to have any sense of understanding or even guessing what they should be worth relative to fiat currencies 
THX!

1 hour ago, rkbabang said:

 

I don't think you can think of them the same way you think of stocks or real estate.  Gold or other commodities are a closer analog, but not perfect either.  There is supply & demand, there are the network effects.    Bitcoin is a store of value today and may become a widely used currency someday.  Also it may be used for dapps/fintech/defi etc.  My thesis is that there will only ever be 21 Million of them in existence and the demand for them will cause the price to sky rocket in the next decade or two.  I do think the price stabilizes as some point, but that is a long way off.  If you are really interested in understanding the thesis for Bitcoin read "The Bitcoin Standard" by Dr. Saifedean Ammous.   For ETH, my thesis is a little bit shakier.  I'm not as sure of ETH as I am of BTC. I think BTC might win in the end even for defi.  But right now ETH is where all the interesting things are happening in the defi world and I think the next few years will see a lot of growth and increased demand for ETH.  It is too early to tell.  I do think that anyone who doesn't have at least a percent or three of their portfolio in BTC is going to be sorry someday.

 

 

I strongly agree with @rkbabang's statement of " I do think that anyone who doesn't have at least a percent or three of their portfolio in BTC is going to be sorry someday. "

 

If you have not taken a look down the crypto rabbit hole, you should. Just taking the time to learn about what BTC  & ETH really are and how they WILL impact the future will open your eyes. My personal opinion is that BTC will likely be the future of finance and very well could become a widely accepted form of currency. It may take 50+ years or longer to get there but I can picture a world where this happens. I think ETH and a few other projects will lay the foundation for smart contracts built on blockchains. I believe business transactions may start migrating this direction. We may see businesses in the future that have built themselves on blockchains based on ETH and other layer 1 projects that will allow them to eliminate substantial costs that current business today carry. By reducing that OPEX they these future businesses could have substantially better margins than their competitors. In short the underlying technologies coming from these technologies will radically change the future. 

 

@gary17 it is hard to assign a value to them but they are assets and they are not going away. My original thesis was I will spread 1% of my portfolio across about a dozen top crypto projects. This led me to want to learn more about what I owned. The more I looked the more I added. Since thanksgiving I have increased my exposure from 1% to 10% in personal accounts. 

 

Also, DEFI stuff is really amazing. In my fantasy world I would love to see the NYSE transformed into crypto tokens representing the ownership of my shares. Then I use a decentralized exchange to do my trades. The world is a hell of a long way off from doing that. But I can dream. Maybe ill see it before I die, who knows....

Edited January 6, 2022 by Longnose

[KJP]

14 minutes ago, Longnose said:

I think ETH and a few other projects will lay the foundation for smart contracts built on blockchains. I believe business transactions may start migrating this direction. We may see businesses in the future that have built themselves on blockchains based on ETH and other layer 1 projects that will allow them to eliminate substantial costs that current business today carry.

 

How do you solve the problem that most business transactions involve physical world activity?  How can a blockchain-based smart contract deal with that?  I don't see how oracles get you there.  Or am I misunderstanding the types of business transactions you're talking about?