Fitz

Up 52% in 2023 in equities, brokerage as a whole is up 32% but moved a large amount of cash from bank to VUSB short-term treasuries that would not have been a drag in the prior years. The names that brought me down last year (-31% 2022) lifted me up with META a large position, BRK and GOOG doing well. China still gets me holding BYD but cut my losses at the tail end of this year in BABA and TECHY, and reduced my BYD by the same amount of gains. I still really love the core business of Tencent specifically and the BABA marketplace but the TAM of Chinese companies looking more and more like it will be limited in the rich Western countries.

The number one qualification, a money mind. He’s produced 30% annual compounded returns since 1998 and the only manager who Munger ever gave money to. That and he seems like a high integrity guy.

Li Lu would be a nice addition and Charlie approved.

@frommi I was thinking the same thing. I think it is a little dangerous to think that way, when you look at past prices and try to make a statement about owning certain stocks over bonds due to their 'price' volatility it's missing the point. Owning a bond, or lending money to a company is a completely different animal as the cash flows and return aren't determined by the sentiment of the market at any point. They are only determined by the company or country's ability to pay. When the yields on bonds, especially treasuries are higher than the earnings yield for the market, it may be a nice time to move some of your money into bonds. Especially if you have an opinion about the growth in earnings going forward.

Completely agree, nothing aimed at the original poster. But a quick summary of why the link was interesting to to poster or why the board would benefit seems reasonable.

gfp, I didn't know they got that approval! I guess a quick google search could have solved this... https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-almost-25-percent-bank-of-america-2020-8-1029465456

They had to divest a Bank they loved in Rockford Bank n Trust due to banking regulations limiting what they would have been able to do with the rest of the company. They cannot wholly own a bank and have to sell off their shares when they start to reach 15% interest. BRK filed a petition to allow for his interest to eclipse this threshold if it was due to buybacks alone and wasn't granted the exception.

I'm down -31%. Nearly everything I own outside of BRK went down this year.... a lot. TECHY, FB, BABA, GOOG, AMZN, BYDDY. I have added more to AMZN and the other positions neutral. Was +80% last year, neither that figure nor this one reflected the businesses performance. I like the competitive positions of these companies and long term prospects. The Chinese government's regulations and crack down on BABA's cloud business and TECHY's video games certainly weakens the growth for both companies, this gives me pause and have not added.

My passive income from rentals exceeded my spending annually 5-6 years ago with a portfolio of single family homes and duplexes. I still work because I get to hang from the bottom of a helicopter, and honestly I would probably pay to do it .

You might look so long and find the best spread over prime, but if the prime rate goes up 100-200bps in that time you’ll still be significantly worse off! The Feds have made it clear that it’s going higher by 75 a meeting! Just a thought.

2021 - 12.3% 2020 - 79.9% Winners - DISCA went for 2.5 bags and happen to sell around 70. FB, GOOG, BYDDY went up a bit, trimed the position and invested into BABA and TENCENT Losers - BABA, TECHY Investment in BABA is down by nearly half and is about 20% of assets. Sold December 28 or 29th as I had a lot of realized gains from the BYD and DISCA sale, I have never sold for tax reasons and when looking at the huge bill I had coming, decided to offset those. Hopefully this does not turn into a huge mistake picking up pennies and losing dollars.

Interesting discussion, but I’m with Eric. Reminds me of Buffett’s quote at Salomon: “if what your legally allowed to do is the boundary lines of a football field, stay between the hashmarks” Above strategies could probably work, but could also cause some unnecessary headaches.

No return details on these funds. But Datarama follows the 13f of a lot of well known value investors. https://www.dataroma.com/m/home.php

I think you can get inspired for your investing ideas by reading many things in life and you never know when one will click in you brain and its a business model you can understand, and a price thats attractive. So if you have benefited from these thats awesome! I prefer to read annuals, bi-annuals or investment letters from active and concentrated managers that have much of there own wealth in the companies they explain. You don't have to be a math wizard to understand that if this guy is beating the down by a “43-1” margin over 20 years, it makes much more sense for him to invest every penny he owns into his strategy and also raise as much outside capital as that strategy would support. Selling investment newsletters would be a much worse return as it has not compounded over the years. But, wouldn't he would already know this with that kind of track record? Quite the head scratcher!

Not sure how any of the others ones are, Waymo is doing lvl 5 self drive in two cities right now, they are the boy ones doing that right now, with no driver at all. Tesla is going lvl 2-3 and getting an insane amount of user generated feedback and corrections to build there system up. They are also only using cameras which are cheap and easier to include on all vehicles where Waymo has a pretty advanced LIDAR setup and costs several hundred thousand dollars, so it wouldn't work for personal vehicles as well as the taxi or commercial application. What I do know, is Tesla’s is really good and ob the freeways I have never needed to give it any corrections. Around town sometimes it does some weird things.

I just got a used 2018 Tesla Model 3 with full self drive, because I am going to have a commute here soon. I’m not a car or vehicle lover at all, But I gotta say that thing is so fun to drive. Really I mean its fun to be driven around, the self driving is insane, takes care of almost all of the driving. It’s so relaxing to be able to sit comfortable like you were a passenger in the driver seat. The technology is mind blowing, I wouldn't invest in Tesla stock but owning the car actually seems like a good value! And they are pretty good looking!

Sold about 20% of my BYDDY stake and put proceeds into BABA and TCEHY. Love the long term growth still for BYD but valuation relative to these other chinese tech titans drove the decision.

Great read! thanks for the link. A gentleman to the end!

I would feel much more comfortable holding Costco for 15 years than an MLB baseball team, just my opinion. Surviving is only half the battle, thriving is the other half. I don't know the economics of a MLB franchise, but would be impressed if they produced more earnings growth than Costco over 15 years. The logic of buying things that can't be replaced could easily lead someone to think that commodities, land and hard assets would be the only thing worth owning over the long term and history hasn't supported that thesis yet.

I see this similar to Scorpion, Royalty companies will be asset light in comparison to the commodity producer they are associated with. But their stream of income is still tied to the underlying commodity and the quantity produced, and this will impact your returns more than any other variable in the macro world. What Warren talks about IMHO with asset light companies with pricing power being desirable in times of high inflation is that they can pass on the cost of inflation to there customers and not have higher costs associated with maintenance and capex rising, thus inflation will improve margins in these businesses. The example you used in your article with the 10 and 30 million dollar company both having to double their assets to double their earnings and thus be earnings neutral in nominal terms, would rely on the market needing double their respective capacity and this may not be tied to inflation. Warren gives an example at one of the annual meetings of See's Candy; since Berkshire has owned it has seen the purchasing power of the dollar erode by approx 80%. And while production has only gone up 75% since his purchase profits have gone up more than 10 fold. This is due to the pricing power of the business and the small amounts of capital it needed to operate. It was able to allow most of the pricing increases to flow to the bottom line. It didn't have great growth prospects so it just printed money for 20+ years. What would make the economics of the two businesses referenced in your papers different all things being equal but the balance sheet is if both were able to pass along the costs or most of them to customers and increase earnings to 10 million dollars, company A with the small balance sheet would be able to retain a much higher percentage because the inflationary costs of maintenance and capital expenditures would be much lower and they would be more profitable. Where the asset heavy companies revenue will rise the net margins will not as inflation will increase their costs at the same rate they are able to increase prices. My two cents...

79.9% winners: BYDDY - >40% of portfolio FB AMZN - march CLWY GOOG - march Some losers - EAF FCAU Flatliners - from my basis BRK.B DISCA 15% cash drag

Card counting doesn't allow you to win more hands on average, only to win more money on average by being able to scale your bets when the odds become more attractive.

Maybe the single best guy I have heard speak during this CV crisis. I just finished listening to his book and it amazing how many things he has wrote about over the years are playing out today to a T! Throw Michaels's name in Youtube and check out his interviews, he's a very good speaker. Both a nice voice / delivery and a very rational mind.

As someone who previously hadn't read anything about Ed Thorp I found it very interesting. Great story of an insanely smart guy who proved people wrong or went off in a path no one thought was possible in every field he entered.