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Fitz

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  • Birthday 06/17/1984

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  1. Really awesome success story there Morgan! I did a similar set up on a much smaller scale. I purchased my primary residence in late 2008 and it had a granny unit, after I moved in and found out renting it to a friend at not even top of the market pricing it paid over half the mortgage. I realized I should rinse and repeat this pattern and purchased a few more in my area of Northern CA from 2009-2014. I self-manage these. In 2014 prices in the bay area had recovered to about 80-90 percent of 2009 levels and the debt cover ratio's weren't as attractive and started purchasing duplex's in Indianapolis from 2014-2019 until prices there got to rich for my blood. I found a really great property manager over there but he recently retired and now I'm dealing with the guy who bought his company and its a completely different experience. Real estate getting less and less attractive from 2014 on is what drove me into looking at equities, and that has been a really fun journey! Side note - the granny unit at my house is rented by a buddy of mine and now covers 400 dollars MORE than my entire mortgage, and I live rent free in the bay area. Makes saving for all this other stuff a lot easier!
  2. One small inconvenience would be any time you want to re-fi, purchase a new home, or take out a new loan in your name only, you'll have to supply all the financials on your daughters home since you are listed. Just creates a lot of extra work getting loan statements, property tax, home insurance records from your daughter...
  3. Not sure how any of the others ones are, Waymo is doing lvl 5 self drive in two cities right now, they are the boy ones doing that right now, with no driver at all. Tesla is going lvl 2-3 and getting an insane amount of user generated feedback and corrections to build there system up. They are also only using cameras which are cheap and easier to include on all vehicles where Waymo has a pretty advanced LIDAR setup and costs several hundred thousand dollars, so it wouldn't work for personal vehicles as well as the taxi or commercial application. What I do know, is Tesla’s is really good and ob the freeways I have never needed to give it any corrections. Around town sometimes it does some weird things.
  4. I just got a used 2018 Tesla Model 3 with full self drive, because I am going to have a commute here soon. I’m not a car or vehicle lover at all, But I gotta say that thing is so fun to drive. Really I mean its fun to be driven around, the self driving is insane, takes care of almost all of the driving. It’s so relaxing to be able to sit comfortable like you were a passenger in the driver seat. The technology is mind blowing, I wouldn't invest in Tesla stock but owning the car actually seems like a good value! And they are pretty good looking!
  5. Sold about 20% of my BYDDY stake and put proceeds into BABA and TCEHY. Love the long term growth still for BYD but valuation relative to these other chinese tech titans drove the decision.
  6. Great read! thanks for the link. A gentleman to the end!
  7. I have several rentals and try to make as many items as imaginable "repairs" and expensed in the year occurred vs capitalized over the useful life of the improvement. That is one area you can help to keep your taxable income low with rentals, it's kind of the opposite of how all these high flying pubic companies run their books, so in some sense it may be a nice balance for the accounting world Not saying anyone does this in the real world, but some people who have rentals, expense costs associated with their primary residence, like repairs or maintenance against one of the rentals.... never met anyone like this, but have heard they are out there...
  8. I have considered loss harvesting or wash sale's, but personally feel like it would take my investing style in a direction that I wouldnt understand as well. What would happen to me if I bought at $10, sold at $5 and 32 days later it was at 7? I got $5 dollars of losses sheltered, at long term gains tax rate of 20% would be worth $1 dollars and missed out on 2 dollars of gains, and a lower basis? DId i win?. I feel like I wouldn't know how to act as my buy/sell decisions would be influenced not by the long term value of a business but the short term fluctuations of my holdings. I know I would be unsuccessful.
  9. I would feel much more comfortable holding Costco for 15 years than an MLB baseball team, just my opinion. Surviving is only half the battle, thriving is the other half. I don't know the economics of a MLB franchise, but would be impressed if they produced more earnings growth than Costco over 15 years. The logic of buying things that can't be replaced could easily lead someone to think that commodities, land and hard assets would be the only thing worth owning over the long term and history hasn't supported that thesis yet.
  10. I see this similar to Scorpion, Royalty companies will be asset light in comparison to the commodity producer they are associated with. But their stream of income is still tied to the underlying commodity and the quantity produced, and this will impact your returns more than any other variable in the macro world. What Warren talks about IMHO with asset light companies with pricing power being desirable in times of high inflation is that they can pass on the cost of inflation to there customers and not have higher costs associated with maintenance and capex rising, thus inflation will improve margins in these businesses. The example you used in your article with the 10 and 30 million dollar company both having to double their assets to double their earnings and thus be earnings neutral in nominal terms, would rely on the market needing double their respective capacity and this may not be tied to inflation. Warren gives an example at one of the annual meetings of See's Candy; since Berkshire has owned it has seen the purchasing power of the dollar erode by approx 80%. And while production has only gone up 75% since his purchase profits have gone up more than 10 fold. This is due to the pricing power of the business and the small amounts of capital it needed to operate. It was able to allow most of the pricing increases to flow to the bottom line. It didn't have great growth prospects so it just printed money for 20+ years. What would make the economics of the two businesses referenced in your papers different all things being equal but the balance sheet is if both were able to pass along the costs or most of them to customers and increase earnings to 10 million dollars, company A with the small balance sheet would be able to retain a much higher percentage because the inflationary costs of maintenance and capital expenditures would be much lower and they would be more profitable. Where the asset heavy companies revenue will rise the net margins will not as inflation will increase their costs at the same rate they are able to increase prices. My two cents...
  11. 79.9% winners: BYDDY - >40% of portfolio FB AMZN - march CLWY GOOG - march Some losers - EAF FCAU Flatliners - from my basis BRK.B DISCA 15% cash drag
  12. Card counting doesn't allow you to win more hands on average, only to win more money on average by being able to scale your bets when the odds become more attractive.
  13. Maybe the single best guy I have heard speak during this CV crisis. I just finished listening to his book and it amazing how many things he has wrote about over the years are playing out today to a T! Throw Michaels's name in Youtube and check out his interviews, he's a very good speaker. Both a nice voice / delivery and a very rational mind.
  14. I have no opinion on weather we will be more likely to see inflation vs deflation in the aftermath of this stimulus and recession. But you can definitely have inflationary pressures from currency devaluation as it will cause the price of the many items we import to become more expensive and our exports to become cheaper and more in demand. Just my two cents, inflation doesn't have to come only through wage growth and consumer demand. A decent portion of the items that make up the CPI are import related and this arbitrary number is most referenced for our "inflation" barometer.
  15. I love reading Mark's memos! Always very rational. I have spent 30% of my cash pile to date, but feel a reduction in GDP of 20-30% would be very obtainable, and with the amount of operational and financial leverage of companies today that may materialize as much more than 20-30% loss in earnings... After thinking through the shut down more, I just don't think stocks today are as cheap as they look. But given that, they are cheaper than they were 3 months ago both in relative and absolute terms.
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