what are you selling today?

[Xerxes]

14 hours ago, Gregmal said:

LOL. Long term buys = sell after an 8% move. You didnt get the update?

 

 

 

most folks i think sell (take trading profit) on their long-term position because they translate +10% move in the quoted price a validation of the bull thesis. In reality, the bull thesis is irrelevant. Fundamentals takes years to shape up and show up in price. A rapid movement in price is just what it is: a rapid movement in price.

 

I think it is worthwhile to make a personal journal when one admits to him/herself (free from judgement) if a positive move in stock was the case of being right for the wrong reason or truly the case of being right for the right reason.

 

[Spekulatius]

11 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

 

most folks i think sell (take trading profit) on their long-term position because they translate +10% move in the quoted price a validation of the bull thesis. In reality, the bull thesis is irrelevant. Fundamentals takes years to shape up and show up in price. A rapid movement in price is just what it is: a rapid movement in price.

 

I think it is worthwhile to make a personal journal when one admits to him/herself (free from judgement) if a positive move in stock was the case of being right for the wrong reason or truly the case of being right for the right reason.

 

Sometimes the thesis indeed doesn't matter and it's just liquidity driving the market up. Why not take advantage of it, as you see it? We are not talking about 8% moves either, but 25%+ moves on little news. A 25%+ move in a couple of month a great IRR. if you can do it in a tax deferred account there is no tax issue either.

 

Maybe the prices come back again  - and you get a second shot at it - you never know.

Edited March 31, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

100 baggers are nice - but can AMZN be an 100 bagger with a $1.1T market cap? That stock is up ~25% on no news basically and it doesn't really have earnings either.

 

If you have a 100 bagger candidate let me know.

 

FWIW - i did buy PAYC  few days ago. I like it better than AMZN. Profitable and tech build in Omaha. One of the best run companies that I have come across for years, but also trading at a bit more than 10x sales., so not a 10 or 100 bagger candidate either.

[competitive-advantage]

Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV)

Jobindex A/S (JOBNDX.CO)

[aws]

Shorted a bunch of naked calls on BBBY. Just hitting the bid on whatever strikes of 2025 calls had a decently high bid. I probably should have done it sooner, but I kept thinking there might be a better time to short after one last pump. Now the dilution engine is in such high gear and so obvious that even the bulls must be throwing in the towel.

 

The breaking point for me was seeing that the new credit agreement posted yesterday mandates minimum dollar amounts of new issuances each and every week in an escalating manner. This is only a $15 million minimum week and the stock is down 50%, where the following three weeks are $25, $36, and $35 million respectively. I might even have to pickup for 0.50 puts, but for those you need to basically see 10 cents by April 21st to double your money, and that seems less certain than just picking up call premium.

[Xerxes]

On 3/31/2023 at 10:53 AM, Spekulatius said:

Sometimes the thesis indeed doesn't matter and it's just liquidity driving the market up. Why not take advantage of it, as you see it? We are not talking about 8% moves either, but 25%+ moves on little news. A 25%+ move in a couple of month a great IRR. if you can do it in a tax deferred account there is no tax issue either.

 

Maybe the prices come back again  - and you get a second shot at it - you never know.

 

I sold Microstrategy north of $1,100 and Blackberry north of $23 CAD back in January 2021. Massive gains all of which were lost in the Great Bear Raid of 2022. (but that is a different story).

 

I agree that when the market offers you a multi-bagger, just take it, and ask questions later.

 

But there is a big difference between these massive liquidity inflow (in my example) than a random walk +/- 10-15% on name that you own. What is the point of thinking of the fundamentals, and table-pounding the bull case. Better just to throw darts and randomly one of them will go up 10%. 

 

 

 

 

 

[RedLion]

Sold a very new position UNP at about a 1% short term loss. Have been contemplating replacing the position with CNI. I do really like the railroads, but I feel like there are more compelling opportunities in the markets right now with less debt which seems risky in this market backdrop. 

[Dinar]

19 minutes ago, RedLion said:

Sold a very new position UNP at about a 1% short term loss. Have been contemplating replacing the position with CNI. I do really like the railroads, but I feel like there are more compelling opportunities in the markets right now with less debt which seems risky in this market backdrop. 

I am biased, but I think CP is much better than UNP and somewhat better than CNI.  (I own both, although 8x more CP than CNI.)

[ourkid8]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

I am biased, but I think CP is much better than UNP and somewhat better than CNI.  (I own both, although 8x more CP than CNI.)

Why do you feel CP is somewhat better then CNR? Pre KSU, definitely not due to CNR’s track network. Post KSU, very possible because KSU network goes into Mexico.
 

The main edge CP has over CN is Keith Creel, he was cut from the same cloth as HH. 

[Dinar]

48 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

Why do you feel CP is somewhat better then CNR? Pre KSU, definitely not due to CNR’s track network. Post KSU, very possible because KSU network goes into Mexico.
 

The main edge CP has over CN is Keith Creel, he was cut from the same cloth as HH. 

I agree with you.  Pre KSU acquisition, CNR had the best track network, post KSU deal, CP has the better network.  Post KSU deal, I think synergies are going to be much higher than Creel promised, and once they are captured, volume growth will be much higher than at CNR due to Mexico.  I also think CP's management - Keith Creel is better than the management at CNR.  

[ourkid8]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

I agree with you.  Pre KSU acquisition, CNR had the best track network, post KSU deal, CP has the better network.  Post KSU deal, I think synergies are going to be much higher than Creel promised, and once they are captured, volume growth will be much higher than at CNR due to Mexico.  I also think CP's management - Keith Creel is better than the management at CNR.  

I am pretty impressed with Tracy so far based on the speed and urgency of changes happening at CN. However, as we all know Creel is an absolute rock star and the best CEO across the class I rails.

 

CN shareholders loved seeing JJ getting Creel to pay up for KSU. CN shareholders enjoyed the break fee which worked out perfectly fine for me!   

 I have been patiently waiting for CP to selloff to a fair price to start a position but it just never gets cheap enough! 

Edited April 14, 2023 by ourkid8

[ourkid8]

I forgot the name of the poster who was a V long term shareholder of a class I rail and just deleted their message.  I would love to discuss/debate a few of your points however I was a bit busy to respond to your message before it was deleted. Would you please slide in my DM?  I am also a long term shareholder in CN but only going back 15 years.  

Edited April 14, 2023 by ourkid8

[Dinar]

8 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

I forgot the name of the poster who was a V long term shareholder of a class I rail and just deleted their message.  I would love to discuss/debate a few of your points however I was a bit busy to respond to your message before it was deleted. Would you please slide in my DM?  I am also a long term shareholder in CN but only going back 15 years.  

It is @dealraker

[formthirteen]

Sayonara HIFS.

[Spekulatius]

Bought some $PNC. I felt like the results were solid.

[CorpRaider]

"Harvested some tax losses" in SLG.  Prior to most of today's face rip, of course. 

Edited April 18, 2023 by CorpRaider

[ourkid8]

On 4/14/2023 at 6:45 AM, dealraker said:

I deleted the message as it re-read too harsh or extreme.  I'll try to upgrade here.  I inherited some shares of Norfolk from my grandmother (my parents died young before my grandmother) which her husband bought.  83 years in the family and I've owned all the public railroad including a fairly large bit of Kansas City Southern and Burlington Northern before they were stolen from us

 

I'd be careful with going too far out on the "look what the HH model did everywhere for railroading."  Yes minimal sales growth became huge eps gains...and fast eps gains.  Cut to employees both in numbers and benefits; cuts to lines; cuts to cap ex; yard eliminations; hard push to pricing...

 

It all fast forwarded eps growth.  Where is it today?  Seems more likely some things need to be added back and there's focus and some protest from regulators and customers- which there always is- but be aware.

 

Financially I think there's little chance the near future is as good as the near past.  I'm not down on the rails, I think huge truck congestion of highways, not just fuel costs, is a huge driver for rail use going forward and that the future is super for the railroads.

 

Pre financial crisis, particularly up until the turn of the century there were banks like Bank of Granite where the CEO was a cost cutter.  In Bank of Ganite's case John Forlines had the efficiency ratio in the high 30's and return on assets well over 2%.  Yet the stock languished for years and years around the same price (one problem was that he did not do buybacks....but the stock was never cheap so they didn't make sense).  Just be careful thinking there's more to cut with the railroads; more like things need to be added.  Forlines is the CEO who Buffett honored at the annual meeting one year...guessing the 1990's...I was there but can't remember.  Bank of Granite, for your humor, was taken over by Forlines' second in command and went bankrupt during the financial crisis despite having and equity-to-assets ratio of over 12%!  LOL.  I'd inherited Bank of Granite in 1975.

 

And above all, the stock buybacks using debt?  Norfolk was buying back at $300 and not now.  This behavior is costly we shareholders will see it over the years.  But the go-go "I want it now!" crowd celebrated those buybacks when they were going on and ranted "It ALWAYS works...just look at the stock price!"  No, it does not always work, we just haven't seen it yet.  Long term shareholders have been greatly harmed by management decisions at Norfolk but it is still a good business.

 

Little sales growth over time is going to be a difficult base to result in big time eps growth.  

 

Fast post, no check for spelling or grammar.  Conversation.  Long-long-long term railroad stocks owner.  

 

HH brought rationality and operational excellence to an industry which was extremely poorly run and inefficient.  He was able to create a framework and applied it across numerous Class I rails bringing exceptional returns in the process in the short / medium term.  He truly changed the game, God rest his soul.  

 

I agree with you that the easy money has been made implementing precision railroading.  We both agree that there is a lot to like with the rails going forward such as AI / Tech e.g. automated inspection portal which identified defects in tracks. This new tech will reduce the injury/accident rate thus further bringing down cost and this is just one initiative.  I also like strategic bolt on acquisitions such as what CN did with EJ&E to bypass Chicago. 

 

Sorry, I cannot speak on behalf of this particular bank but being the lowest cost producer, gives you a significant competitive advantage.  I do not have the background on this particular failure so I have nothing more to add.     

 

I cannot speak on behalf of Norfolk but for CN their buybacks have been spot on  With a current share price of $163.90, the average price management repurchased shares: 2017: $98.27, 2018: $104.99, 2019: $118.70, 2020:  $116.97, 2021: $153.69 and 2022: $156.  I bet if you look back 5-10 years with Norfolk, their buybacks have worked out perfectly fine.  I am a bit lazy to check myself.  

 

Thanks for reposting your message, it was definitely not as harsh.  

 

[dealraker]

6 hours ago, ourkid8 said:

 

HH brought rationality and operational excellence to an industry which was extremely poorly run and inefficient.  He was able to create a framework and applied it across numerous Class I rails bringing exceptional returns in the process in the short / medium term.  He truly changed the game, God rest his soul.  

 

I agree with you that the easy money has been made implementing precision railroading.  We both agree that there is a lot to like with the rails going forward such as AI / Tech e.g. automated inspection portal which identified defects in tracks. This new tech will reduce the injury/accident rate thus further bringing down cost and this is just one initiative.  I also like strategic bolt on acquisitions such as what CN did with EJ&E to bypass Chicago. 

 

Sorry, I cannot speak on behalf of this particular bank but being the lowest cost producer, gives you a significant competitive advantage.  I do not have the background on this particular failure so I have nothing more to add.     

 

I cannot speak on behalf of Norfolk but for CN their buybacks have been spot on  With a current share price of $163.90, the average price management repurchased shares: 2017: $98.27, 2018: $104.99, 2019: $118.70, 2020:  $116.97, 2021: $153.69 and 2022: $156.  I bet if you look back 5-10 years with Norfolk, their buybacks have worked out perfectly fine.  I am a bit lazy to check myself.  

 

Thanks for reposting your message, it was definitely not as harsh.  

 

Interesting choices of what to put in vs leave out.  I'll degress from this topic as I've found that anything remotely related to Hunter Harrison and Brookfield's Bruce Flatt doesn't work for debating.  Don't take my response personally, I'm just reading different facts.

[ourkid8]

6 hours ago, dealraker said:

Interesting choices of what to put in vs leave out.  I'll degress from this topic as I've found that anything remotely related to Hunter Harrison and Brookfield's Bruce Flatt doesn't work for debating.  Don't take my response personally, I'm just reading different facts.

 

I understand the potential flaws:

 

1. Trains are run longer, faster and run on the companies schedule - not the customer

2. Railyards are consolidated - intermediary yards are inefficient and slow down operations

3. Significant Layoffs to get the cost structure inline   

4.  Customer complaints about a strict schedule

5.  Not ideal for shippers - since they cannot always keep a strict schedule

6.  Employees to do more with less - Isn't that in every industry? 

 

What do you feel is the main point which makes the jury out on HH / PSR?   

Edited April 18, 2023 by ourkid8

[rkbabang]

Probably a few hundred shares of BRKB.  I wrote 4/21 $320 covered calls about a month ago, it's 321+ right now.

It's in my IRA so no capital gains taxes, so I'll probably buy back my shares on the next down day.

[John Hjorth]

On 4/18/2023 at 12:52 PM, dealraker said:

Interesting choices of what to put in vs leave out.  I'll degress from this topic as I've found that anything remotely related to Hunter Harrison and Brookfield's Bruce Flatt doesn't work for debating.  Don't take my response personally, I'm just reading different facts.

 

Nothing forgotten about Mr. Flatt for my part, @dealraker just not in the mood right now to pull in the rope about it. Spring is here, while located much more northern in the northern hemisphere than you, enjoying the northern European spring climate, with a big thank you to the Gulf Stream.

 

Just sun from a clear blue sky, 16^o C now at about 4:00 PM. Life is great, as you say!

[Spekulatius]

Sold my GEF-B position in my tax deferred accounts. The stock did well and met my valuation target.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Spekulatius

[dealraker]

dealraker's ruining the buy-and-hold model today:

 

Sold the last shares of Old Dominion Freight LInes

Sold Enphase

Sold First Solar

 

 

[John Hjorth]

Buying neighbours land with the proceeds, @dealraker?

[dealraker]

6 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Buying neighbours land with the proceeds, @dealraker?

Yes.