What are you buying today?

[RichardGibbons]

42 minutes ago, nafregnum said:

 

Thanks a lot for the extra info!  I see what you mean now about how nobody would consider a fall to $100 likely if it already fell to $140 over the course of a number of months.  Big sudden swings in price are where the options seem to pay out the best.  

 

It's also worth noting that if you're curious what the prices will roughly be, you can just put the numbers into a Black-Scholes model. You'd need to estimate the implied volatility, but it will return approximately the right answer if your inputs are at all reasonable.

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, nafregnum said:

Big sudden swings in price are where the options seem to pay out the best.  

 

Yep for context - I bought $90 March strikes........this is calamity insurance and I think its underpriced.........I have a view that I've shared widely on here that what we saw in May/June was just the opening credits for a movie called "Higher for Longer: Multiples get crushed" and its sequel "Earnings Recession".......it might take longer than March for both movies to play out, I'll see, I suspect there will be a good exit point somewhere in there for my puts and I can reload again with longer duration so I get front row seats to both movies............anyway Apple gets me a descent ticket to both given its touching its ATH COVID highs (its like Oracle in 1999, there's no investment management career risk going over the cliff holding Apple), its PE is priced (3% FCF yield) like the 10yr is going back to 1% pretty soon ( i personally think the 10yr is going to 4-5% and staying up there for 2023/24) and I think that they've over earned like nobodies business because of COVID WFH lockdowns and a technology super-cyle (5G & M1 processors) in their main revenue products, now throw in dollar strength depressing overseas earnings + their end markets of Europe/China weakening significantly.....you can see why they are rushing to get the iPhone out the door so early this year.....they need to hurry because their European (Energy prices) and Chinese (zero covid/property crisis) customers sense of wealth is depleting daily and these folks are running out of disposal income and fast. The iPhone 12/13 will work perfectly fine for these folks as they assess household budgets into winter 2023....they can skip iPhone 14, no biggie but Tim Apple is doing the exact thing Id do....push up the release date ASAP before the macro deteriorates any further...juice up fiscal Q4.....and then with everybody else and in the bosom of the crowd start in early 2023 to report YoY earnings declines...joining the chorus of other companies blaming macro, dollar, inflation & rising costs. Better to fail conventionally, than succeed unconventionally....Tim is making sure his rockstar CEO status inside the FANGMA complex is retained by not stepping out into the firing line first, Netflix & Reed Hastings already did that and got his head blown off (for the record I think Tim is a rockstar)

Edited August 25, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Gregmal]

Hit a few more AIV 7.5s

[CorpRaider]

I'm watching this John Malone talk where he tells the students to lever long $T and get a 12% ROE over and over whilst checking the quote on $SLG.

[LC]

44 minutes ago, CorpRaider said:

I'm watching this John Malone talk where he tells the students to lever long $T and get a 12% ROE over and over whilst checking the quote on $SLG.

 

Could you share that? Would be interesting to hear Malone talk about AT&T...

[CorpRaider]

2 hours ago, LC said:

 

Could you share that? Would be interesting to hear Malone talk about AT&T...

Oh I was just joking, it's an old talk on youtube to DU students and he talks about levering up $T stock on margin.  He doesn't really talk about anything substantive w/r/t $T.

 

I think this is it:  

 

 

Edit:  Whelp, I got filled.  I think I'm going to puke.

Edited August 26, 2022 by CorpRaider

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, CorpRaider said:

Oh I was just joking, it's an old talk on youtube to DU students and he talks about levering up $T stock on margin.  He doesn't really talk about anything substantive w/r/t $T.

 

I think this is it:  

 

 

Edit:  Whelp, I got filled.  I think I'm going to puke.

Early happy hours drinks or are you talking about stonks?

[Monsieur_dee]

Starter basket of C, Ally & Bac

[KPO]

MSGS

[fareastwarriors]

more Swedish Match under US $10

Edited August 26, 2022 by fareastwarriors

[Viking]

FFH. < US $505

[ERICOPOLY]

On 8/15/2022 at 2:17 PM, Gregmal said:

VIX is so low you wanna go OTM

 

Just to share my experience from this past 11 days, my ATM puts have outperformed my OTM puts.  I have Oct 429 strike SPY puts that are now up 110%.

 

But my OTM puts are Nov $390 (up 55%) and March $362 (up 45%) so it could be the longer expirations that are holding them back.

 

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

10 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

Just to share my experience from this past 11 days, my ATM puts have outperformed my OTM puts.  I have Oct 429 strike SPY puts that are now up 110%.

 

But my OTM puts are Nov $390 (up 55%) and March $362 (up 45%) so it could be the longer expirations that are holding them back.

 

 

 

 

Yea I think it varies. All I own is some October and November IWM puts. The Oct $180 strike for instance went from $2.6-2.8 to now $5. I’ll probably hold it for a few more weeks. Obviously we need to start getting worked up for the September rate hike. I’ve heard the world ends with a 3.5-4% Fed funds rate. So you wanna sell just before everything goes to black.

Edited August 26, 2022 by Gregmal

[ERICOPOLY]

3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea I think it varies. All I own is some October and November IWM puts. The Oct $180 strike for instance went from $2.6-2.8 to now $5. I’ll probably hold it for a few more weeks. Obviously we need to start getting worked up for the September rate hike. I’ve heard the world ends with a 3.5-4% Fed funds rate. So you wanna sell just before everything goes to black.

 

A lot of what we have to thank is the 'mother of all fears' from the 1982 P/E.

[Gregmal]

I’m just so grateful for all the folks who still haven’t gotten over the GFC. They’ve been creating wonderful opportunities for over a decade now thinking that everything is 2.0

 

Powell has outright stated numerous times the goal is to raise til inflation subsides and then bring rates down. You’ve already seen that the rhetoric works. The majority of the supply chain stuff will be fixed in the next few months. Energy is the only thing they don’t have a say in. But regardless you’re looking at what is yet another classic short term “issue” that’s creating long term opportunity. In a few years people won’t remember this anymore than they remember the China crisis in August 2016.

[CorpRaider]

18 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Early happy hours drinks or are you talking about stonks?

  

Haha! I partnered with Thomas Petterffy on $SLG.  He can be capricious, so let's just say I hope it works out as well for me as it did for Rick Guerin.   

Edited August 27, 2022 by CorpRaider

[oscarazocar]

23 hours ago, CorpRaider said:

Oh I was just joking, it's an old talk on youtube to DU students and he talks about levering up $T stock on margin.  He doesn't really talk about anything substantive w/r/t $T.

 

I think this is it:  

 

 

Edit:  Whelp, I got filled.  I think I'm going to puke.

There is a good book form 2005 called The End of the Line on AT&T's big move into cable with the purchase of TCI and MediaOne in 1998.  There is lots on John Malone in it.

 

https://www.amazon.com/End-Line-Leslie-Cauley/dp/1439123098

 

[RetroRanger]

More Haier - Shares (690D.DE), STILL 200% upside alone from the Spread to the H-Shares $6690.HK and today they again had in this weak HK environment double digit growth (15-20%) on EPS and Net income. An absolute insane beast and yet all share classes have the EXACT same rights.

Did i mention that last weak, the D-Shares got a 6% dividend yield.

Its insane... (if anyone interested, its still the same special situation from Jeremy Raper a year ago https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399099-haier-smart-home-german-listed-shares-50minus-80-percent-near-term-upside-massive-discount-to)

 

 

 

[nwoodman]

KMX add on open

[RetroRanger]

Probably some A2M.ASX shares , turnaround seems to be there, and buyback is good  

Edited August 30, 2022 by RetroRanger

[CorpRaider]

CMCSA

[lnofeisone]

Reloaded on some VET calls. Love how it trades with oil news but it's a nat gas company. 

[Viking]

Fairfax India at US$10.15; small anount.

 

My hope is they do another dutch auction later this year ($200 million in cash plus proceeds from IIFL Wealth sale when it closes). 
 

The rub is if interest in IDBI Bank is real… perhaps that is where the cash goes. 
- https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/money-and-banking/prem-watsas-fairfax-shows-interest-in-idbi-bank/article65496966.ece

[LC]

50 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

Reloaded on some VET calls. Love how it trades with oil news but it's a nat gas company. 

Same. How far out with the calls are you going? I usually stick with about 6 mo and slightly OOM.

[lnofeisone]

48 minutes ago, LC said:

Same. How far out with the calls are you going? I usually stick with about 6 mo and slightly OOM.

I got Dec 25s@$5.70 and currently in process of getting Mar 25s. I got few Mar 25s @$6.90 but lowered the price a bit.