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ERICOPOLY

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Everything posted by ERICOPOLY

  1. You just let crabgrass take over and cut it short and from a distance nobody can tell.
  2. my guess is MSGE continues to drop at 2x the market rate and bottoms around $27-$30. Just because.
  3. That's funny when you think of something like MSGE which has been beaten to shit lately despite being nowhere close to peak margins from the pandemic -- actually, it has been the reverse of peak earnings because of the pandemic.
  4. Because it never fails to drive the market down by way more than reasonable.
  5. The average price of a 6 pack was $5.58 in 1991. Pretty amazing how gasoline is about 4x higher today, but beer is only 35% higher.
  6. With all this talk of high grocery bills. Chicken drumsticks can be had for $1.19 a pound. That's not much at the end of the day. https://www.walmart.com/ip/Freshness-Guaranteed-Fresh-Chicken-Drumsticks-5-lb/613823324?fulfillmentIntent=Pickup&athbdg=L1600
  7. The trouble is that small homes aren't even allowed in most towns. In most areas you aren't allowed to build a one bedroom 400 sqft home. It's bizarre. I mean, there's all this public hand wringing about housing affordability but then there are rules literally requiring your home to be larger than you need and therefore less affordable.
  8. Same with scanning and bagging our own groceries. The cpi does not impute the wage for doing your own work.
  9. restaurant inflation is worse than it looks because they have replaced service with technology — QR code menus, order from an ipad at the table. when is the Fed going to factor this into inflation? They adjust computer prices to account for technology when it lowers the CPI.
  10. I'm a bit interested in what will happen with rents. There is a shortage of housing and your option to buy is gone with the rates going up and prices not coming down enough to compensate. So your only option is to rent, so won't rent go up?
  11. Well, I think it makes more sense to look at the cheapest available and see if prices have moved up. For example, the Walmart store brand beans labeled "Great Value" (kidney, pinto, black, great northern) were only 50 cents a can two years ago. I know because I buy them for my chili. Now they are 78 cents per can. 50 to 78 in two years.
  12. I really don't know what their options are. If they don't cause a recession then they're left with rising wages in a tight labor market, and then there is the wage price spiral to worry about.
  13. That's what we're having at Christmas this year! Your idea has me sold.
  14. In the meantime, families are gut punched by the mark-to-market losses and cutting back. Reverse wealth effect. They will cut back on meals out, etc... They are thinking less about their higher earnings yields, and thinking more about the $20k or $50k or $200k that they just 'lost'. They feel less confident and want to eat Costco food court instead of $14.00 at Burger King for the double bacon stacker king meal large size. When did Burger King become a $14 meal? I mean, it's crazy.
  15. I did have some success on the purchasing front: I got a box of New Zealand lamb from Costco priced at $9.63 per pound https://www.costco.com/new-zealand-spring-lamb-grass-fed-lamb-premium-selection-box%2c-9.63-lbs.product.100784602.html I like lamb better than steak anyway. So go stick it up your chaps ranch boys! It's interesting that Australian lamb is going for $40 a pound: https://www.costco.com/rastelli-grass-fed-frenched-lamb-racks%2c-24-oz%2c-6-pack%2c-9-lbs.product.100652542.html If you take that price of $40 a pound and apply it to the 3 pounds of lamb rack that's included in the box that I bought, then I got the leg and the chops for free. But I get it... that Australian rack is meatier rack and that's where the premium went presumably. However, I wasn't sold.
  16. In 2002, the consumer had losses in equities, but I think bonds were offsetting some of those losses and real estate was soaring throughout the country. Today, the entire sky is falling with nothing doing well to offset it.
  17. Yes, that's so true. Exports are going to suck tremendously.
  18. So if you are the Fed, does it make your job easier to see a stronger dollar? Or does it necessitate ever higher rates to offset this boon to consumer purchasing power?
  19. Oh well, if the US is the best positioned, then the chance of a US recession is the same as the chance of a global recession.
  20. Costco food court is on the menu again. I agree that the US is in the better position. I was wondering this afternoon what will happen in all the other economies where the consumers will be reset into higher mortgage rates. This won't hit the US where most people have 30 yr fixed rates. But everywhere else...
  21. Today I was reading that we just had our 2nd largest inflow from retail investors of 2022. That's not capitulation.
  22. I'm not hedged in my Roth IRA. The puts are all in my margined taxable account.
  23. Well, a hurricane is indeed coming. Aside from that joke, my own consumer behavior is projecting doom for the us economy. The things that are souring my mood are the same things everyone is facing. Higher prices everywhere and for nearly everything. So I have actually added to my SPY puts because we're still at that point where pundits are saying "50% recession risk" or whatnot. I'm thinking it's 100% but that's just me. Home equity is dropping. Bond portfolios dropping. Equity portfolios dropping. Rents up. Food up. Energy up. Fuck all every other cost is up. And that won't bring on a recession? Then nothing will.
  24. It's probably easier to see the benefit if we're talking about a fixed mortgage in an investment property and rents are going up with inflation and where the mortgage payment never changes. Ignoring what's going on with the equity, the cash flow is improving because of inflation. Homeowners also enjoy this imputed benefit although it's not as obvious. And the equity base will recover if inflation persists because wage increases will follow.
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