What are you buying today?

[bizaro86]

I've nibbled at cmg lately. Big operating leverage there to upside (new drilling = more reservoir engineers = more licenses at very high contribution margin). Less downside than producing companies.

 

Great management. The folks there are pretty much all geniuses. One thing that really struck me when I visited was that a huge number of staff were eating their lunch together in the lunch room. That is super uncommon in Calgary's oil industry (this was 3-4 years ago). That people brought lunch and then ate it together isn't something I'd seen culture wise. Thought it was interesting.

[tenyearsout]

Thanks to  Spekulatius and bizaro86 for your thoughts.

My reason for buying are:

1. Very large intellectual moat

2. Long term view in terms of continued spending on R/D

3. New CoFlow product released (after years of development), potential new source of revenue

4. Recent insider buying at higher than current prices

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Thanks for thoughts on CMG.TO. I think the only odd thing I found is the dividend bing higher than the earnings, while at the same time, they have a lot of cash on their balance sheet and the SharePoint creeps up due to dilution from stock based compensation.

It’s a pretty interesting way to play a recovery in the E&P sector wth way less risk than owning an E&P outright. Thanks for posting.

[frommi]

Even if you take out all cash and slash R&D to 0$ you just get a yield of 7-8% for a no growth company. Doesn`t look very compelling right now to me and i doubt that it is a good aquisition target at an EV/EBITDA of 16. I mean FB or GOOGL grow at >15% per year and trade at similar multiples and are probably less risky. But thanks for posting the idea, it might be interesting below 4$.

What are their competitors?

[DooDiligence]

Even if you take out all cash and slash R&D to 0$ you just get a yield of 7-8% for a no growth company. Doesn`t look very compelling right now to me and i doubt that it is a good aquisition target at an EV/EBITDA of 16. I mean FB or GOOGL grow at >15% per year and trade at similar multiples and are probably less risky. But thanks for posting the idea, it might be interesting below 4$.

What are their competitors?

 

CLB

[bizaro86]

I'm pretty sure CLB provides reservoir characterization services as opposed to liscencing simulation software.

 

The 900 lb gorilla in the industry is Eclipse, which is owned by Schlumberger. I like that you're competing against a small non-core division of a mega-cap.

 

Also, I've used both and the CMG suite is WAY easier to learn than eclipse.

[tenyearsout]

Good to hear it.  Thanks for the insight bizaro86

[Cardboard]

Some puts on AAPL.

 

Really underwhelming announcements vs market reaction last week.

 

Cardboard

[SafetyinNumbers]

Bought some IVQ.DB.V (~12% YTM) and some GCM.NT.U (~10% YTM at this gold price).

 

Anyone else look at the IVQ bonds? The IVQ.DB.U are trading over 1% tighter but they do mature about 18 months earlier.

 

 

[james22]

BRK.B @ $199

[Spekulatius]

Another small add to WBA.

[james22]

More BRK.B @ $199

[york]

Dorel Industries Inc B @ $11.92.

[sleepydragon]

WFC @ 48.35

[boilermaker75]

WFC @ 48.35

 

On Monday I wrote some 48-strike April 12 expiration WFC puts for $0.70 per share. Still a good premium today at 0.68 per share.

[sarganaga]

Added to Crosstimbers Royalty Trust (CRT)

[ourkid8]

PDH earlier today at $0.025  :) - Thank you for the gift Sanjeev!!!

[Lakesider]

I added to GXE this week too.

[SafetyinNumbers]

I bought some Arrow Exploration (AXL.V). It’s an oil producer in Colombia that emerged from reverse takeover / spin off from CNE.TO in November.

 

Given it’s a micro cap spinoff there could be some irrational selling going on.

 

Each Canacol share received .127 shares of AXL, so it’s a trivial amount for what is now a 35 cent stock. CNE shares trade at $4.40.

 

CNE valued each AXL share at US$0.885 each at the time of the spin and it’s trading so it’s down about 70% from that level in less than 6 months. Perhaps they were optimistic in how they valued it but it certainly has taken a haircut now.

 

Management owns 18% and cannot sell the majority shares for 18 months and the stock has to be above US$1.50.

 

EV is less than C$30m with 2P NPV at C$125m and the company is producing 1500 boe/d now and guiding to exit at 3000 boe/d. It’s production is tied to Brent pricing so it looks cheap on traditional oil company metrics.

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

WFC and RHDGF

[John Hjorth]

Added to LVMUY yesterday [bought in Paris as MC.PA].

[Fairfaxnut]

MTY.TO or MTYFF....looks as if the Algos overreacted  :o

[writser]

MTY.TO or MTYFF....looks as if the Algos overreacted  :o

 

If it goes down blame the algo's. If it goes up your analysis is great :P .

[DTEJD1997]

MTY.TO or MTYFF....looks as if the Algos overreacted  :o

 

If it goes down blame the algo's. If it goes up your analysis is great :P .

 

Could it be that MTY's business model is buying up smaller chains and "rolling up"?  In the past, that worked reasonably well, and they got some decent chains.  NOW, time has progressed and the easy fruit has been picked.  What remains are problems like Papa Murphys?  Thus MTY's long history of rolling up is coming to an end?

[Spekulatius]

I bumped up my WFC position on Friday. I used proceeds from sale of my FITB and cash. Worse case, I collect ever rising dividend checks. It’s now my largest bank position. I also bought a little CARS.