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Everything posted by Cardboard

  1. Bought some more on this rebound this afternoon. Seems like this $429-430 bottom is holding up. I suspect there is some correlation with SPY rebound and I am thinking that tax loss selling is abating being last day in Canada. I also largely subscribe to TwoCitiesCapital rational. What got me worried is that Prem is a religious Christian man and such words of intolerance stick to my mind or how can a man believing in that stuff be capable to manage a multiple billion $ company? "Because you believe those stories or beliefs stand on a higher moral ground...that the majority of people don't want to stand on with you, because they think your beliefs are archaic and misogynistic." Cardboard
  2. We have a solid sign of weakness today on IWM. Chart looks right about to reverse. This could be a good hedge on any market weakness. Then we have the FAANGM incapable to break above their highs. Some for 4-6 months. AAPL is the only one about to take it out but, seems extended on latest rally. GOOG had its high more recently. Anyhow seems scary looking. I was amazed to look at some stocks mentioned by Gregmal and to see the volatility, one day doubles, etc. Better be prepared for some air pocket ahead despite remaining constructive on the economy. Cardboard
  3. Managed to pull it off... LMAO Even ELF cannot do as poorly and it is highly illiquid. http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item?bid=Z-C:FFH-3010875&symbol=FFH&region=C Cardboard
  4. Better start thinking about it. Cardboard
  5. 16.) A shitty stock price? Barely dragging itself out from March bottom? Cardboard
  6. So useless: WHO chief scientist warns against Covid complacency, says herd immunity unlikely until end-2021 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/23/who-some-level-of-herd-immunity-may-be-reached-by-end-2021-.html Why do we need these morons? Unbelievable that tax payers have to pay for so many people to give their opinions and who provide zero cure, zero relief, zero PPE and certainly not any kind of useful guidelines as they screwed up: 1- Calling it a pandemic: was done well after any common mortal knew. 2- Kept telling for a long time that masks were no good. 3- Played around with testing results creating false positives now adjusting which will show vaccines as more effective than they are. Yet we still have a lot of people on this website who you would think should be rational still begging for more of these leeches. More of what I would call fake scientists. Crazy! Unless of course it is the kind of "service" that they provide for a living with fat salaries and pensions to show up to work 35 max hours per week. Watch the incentives as would say Charlie Munger. Yup! Cardboard
  7. All I know is that it appears I made a mistake buying back into that dog after selling it following a nice trading gain. Ever since I saw Prem in public and explaining his Swiss Re reinsurance deal of $1 billion, I had doubts about his integrity. Sounded and behaved like an old car salesman. Defending the indefensible. There are some people that you can listen to and every word makes sense. Not him. Cardboard
  8. As I mentioned in a different thread: it is the bus that you didn't see that hits you. I have a friend in his late 20's who wanted the market to be shutdown in mid-March as losses were pilling up rapidly and daily. I cannot blame him as the sharpness of this sell-off was worst than 2008 and 2000 felt like a walk in the park! 9 nonths later we are at record highs, IPO's double ar the open like it is 1998-1999, VIX is still in the 20's indicating something really messed up in the options market, etc. Looking ahead, the economy is definitely going to improve despite these politicians last hurrah at controlling masses with shutdowns. Last estimates that I saw showed U.S. unemployment at 5% and GDP growth of 4% + in 2021. So we will go back rapidly to full employment which is quite remarkable. A 10% pullback happens almost every year in the stock market while larger drawdowns are more rare. Betting that the latter will occur soon is a loser's game as many here will be able to acknowledge having tried puts and other strategies in the past. One problem that I have is logic and it made me pull my hair more than once. I have finally accepted that the crowd will continue to do their irrational stuff until they finally stop. There was a strategist at Bear Stearns years ago who only asked one question: "Does your company make money? If so then you will be fine." It seemed way too simplistic for the early 20's investor that I was back then. However, it is true. For a long time I thought his saying lacked around "quantity" of earnings but, if a growth stock earns money early on eventually or on average it will earn enough to take care of this issue. Long message but, eventually panic will return. No idea when or why? If you are away from the excesses you will make it through just fine. Cardboard
  9. Stocks fall when the bus that you didn't see hit you or when interest rates rise. Only risks on the horizon IMO are Jan 5 runoff election in Georgia or some geopolitical event: reaction to Russia hack, Brexit, China territorial conquest. So I remain bullish until Jan 5, then I will have cash and/or puts. Cardboard (I like even more signing since it pisses off DooMoron)
  10. Probably in October or something like that. At that point Covid will be a distant memory so I will probably get a tetanus refresh instead. Cardboard
  11. Are you eligible Cwericb? Cardboard
  12. Once Donny and Rudy come back it will improve. Hang on guys! Cardboard
  13. What has hit that dog today? Cardboard
  14. This is the "What are you buying today?" thread. Go argue elsewhere Gibbons. Cardboard
  15. Well, that is a big element why the stock trades well below book value vs peers trading at a premium or lack of confidence. So you should assume that it will not trade at similar metrics vs peers for a long while. Despite this, I believe there is a decent return to be made or to catch-up to good news materializing with primarily: hard market for insurance premiums meaning increased profitability, liquidity fears disappearing and increase for investment portfolio value despite offsetting short losses. Cardboard
  16. Having listened to Prem at last conference call I doubt very much this is Tesla. I mean shorting Tesla and covering it is very straight forward and can be entered in and closed on same day. This sounded like a complex trade where time was involved and/or some form of commitment. Why in the world would you need to do this with Tesla? Maybe it is some complex derivative that has to be put on for a fixed duration (which it sounded like) in order to prevent cost of borrowing from spiking/keeping it fixed for duration? Anyhow, would seem awfully complicated and risky to short an individual stock that way. Cardboard
  17. If I have to make a guess as to what will happen: 30-40% of Western world population will not take it and the virus will still have mysteriously disappeared or won't be talked about in the news. Regarding international travel, who is going to impose on Russian, Chinese, an American made vaccine while they claim their own? Question becomes what is an acceptable standard. Then there will be the question of poor nation people not able to afford it and we will get an earful about compassion and the like and that they should still be allowed in without. Cardboard
  18. No sarcasm. I did. Sometimes I change my mind, sometimes I find better opportunities and sometimes I have to rebalance portfolio. Cardboard
  19. Bought some Suncorio. This one is due for a big re-rating. Gasoline price going up. Western Canada egress improving with Line 3 and TMX construction on-going. Gulf Coast refineries starved for heavy with Venezuela and Mexico production way down. Really short term: Opec+ should extend existing cuts into Q1 or weak demand season today. This is a risk but, fundamentals mid-term still fine. Would also like to think that UAE and Saudi should solve differences easier than Saudi and Russia back in March and even they quickly addressed after fiasco. Cardboard
  20. Hey Viking, I actually bought back in this afternoon due to FOMO. Actually, I was looking at my WFC having this same flattening pattern, then it resumed its upward march. Hopefully a good sign of anti-Covid trade. Then I thought about potential dividend coming up or Prem's "bread line", stock still quite a bit below book vs peers so, overall risk/reward still looking good. Plus some cash coming from two profitable sales reducing my overall portfolio risk. Cardboard
  21. Sold all my shares yesterday as it refused to break-up and thought it could pause after a nice quick gain, pretty much right from low. Then this news today and thought: lucky me... However, it is slightly down now with market unimpressed. Looking at press release I can see partially why as company is not too transparent: Is it good or bad? What is use for proceeds? A gain or a loss? It is a large company now and PR folks should know better by now. Cardboard
  22. It is obvious you hate Trump and how he didn't push masks. Funny now although, that Biden is nearly always without his... Since you knew these things and would have followed CDC guidelines, prevention, etc. according to your logic then how do you explain that you still caught it? Cardboard
  23. Biden tells NYT columnist he won't immediately remove Trump's tariffs on China https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/02/biden-tells-nyt-columnist-he-wont-immediately-remove-trumps-tariffs-on-china.html Globalists must be shaking their heads in disbelief. Cardboard
  24. Cwericb, that is about the most delusional post that I have read in a long time. No one is "immigrating" to Atlantic Canada pushing up prices because no one wants to go there. Now, getting back to the real cause of price increase it is because people are moving out of condos to suburbs and it makes detached homes to go up in price or a global phenomenon. Then condo prices have not adjusted yet to lower demand reality because of price anchoring. Cardboard
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