What are you buying today?

[adesigar]

KVUE

SPHR - Today is the day

 

[Santayana]

Fairfax and JOE even though I'm overweight in both.

[dealraker]

12 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Try Dry Riesling's from the Finger lakes and thank me later. I get mine from Buttonwood winery (member of the wine club) - they have very reasonable shipping. Those finger lake wines are harder to get in stores (perhaps a wine discounter will do it in your area).

 

FWIW, Kenwood was taken out by Pernod Ricard in 2014. Been buying their wines since I moved to the US (lived 3 miles from their tasting room for a good while). They had awesome fall sales (50% off almost everything) for friends and family which was almost everyone who lived in the area :-). Unfortunately the new owner (Pernod Ricard) has ceased these sales, although they do have sales that are good deals from time to time. Sign up for free to get on the mailing list. The Jack London wines are very good - and Pernod Ricard has improved this vineyards and the marketing since they owned it.

 

That said, wine is not a great business - to many rich people are in it just for the status and the bragging rights, I suppose.

Dry Riesling's from Finger Lakes will be tried.  Thanks.  

[dipod]

Purchased MANU and SBUX common stock

Shorted JOE and MSGE puts to lower my cost basis.

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Dry Riesling's from Finger Lakes will be tried.  Thanks.  

Herman Wiemer Riesling is terrific 

[valueseek]

Put in order to buy starter in $JCI. 

[John Hjorth]

 Thank you all for reading my post about RI.PA as a reply to @Spekulatius exactly as it was meant, and thereby generating some friendly talk and banter here on CoBF! 

 

@dealraker posting about having a good time with good friends on the porch just near by, and with a view to the lake, just south of Lexington, NC. I suppose the autumn colors are in the crowns of the trees  by now.

 

Here, just like everywhere in the Northern hemisphire, we have just passed autumnal equinox by a week, and the clock here is now 22:45. It has been black night for a whole hour now, and I just hate it. 6 - 7 weeks ago we had light in the horizon to the north, generating light nights. Now totally gone. Tomorrow we are bound to leave the best September month ever to the best of my recollection with regard to rain, sun and temperatures. But all that is because of the Gulf Stream.

 

 

@RedLion, congrats on your new Maui acqusition!

Edited September 29, 2023 by John Hjorth

[dealraker]

31 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 Thank you all for reading my post about RI.PA as a reply to @Spekulatius exactly as it was meant, and thereby generating some friendly talk and banter here on CoBF! 

 

@dealraker posting about having a good time with good friends on the porch just near by, and with a view to the lake, just south of Lexington, NC. I suppose the autumn colors are in the crowns of the trees  by now.

 

Here, just like everywhere in the Northern hemisphire, we have just passed autumnal equinox by a week, and the clock here is now 22:45. It has been black night for a whole hour now, and I just hate it. 6 - 7 weeks ago we had light in the horizon to the north, generating light nights. Now totally gone. Tomorrow we are bound to leave the best September month ever to the best of my recollection with regard to rain, sun and temperatures. But all that is because of the Gulf Stream.

 

 

@RedLion, congrats on your new Maui acqusition!

"Away from Denmark...to Caledonia..." said some very famous musician with the song Listen to the Lion.  As per ancestry.com very relevant to Angela and me both.  Have a great weekend.  

[John Hjorth]

40 minutes ago, dealraker said:

... Have a great weekend.  

 

Agreed, +1! 'Have a great weekend' to you all here on CoBF, and thank you, -for being you.

[yesman182]

7 hours ago, Dinar said:

IKEA is now running sales in NY, I have not seen that in years.

What kind of sales? I haven’t seen them out their kitchen cabinets on sales in years, but they seem to always have a few couches and lamps and what not on sale. 

[Dinar]

23 minutes ago, yesman182 said:

What kind of sales? I haven’t seen them out their kitchen cabinets on sales in years, but they seem to always have a few couches and lamps and what not on sale. 

What one would describe as office furniture - desk, et all

[kh812000]

$SPHR and $PAYO

[RedLion]

Doubled my notional exposure to JOE with the august 24 $50 calls. 

[Spooky]

Bought a small amount of BRK B shares.

[Lance]

Added to BTI, KMI, LVMH and MMM.

 

Thanks

Lance

[lnofeisone]

On 9/28/2023 at 4:21 PM, Spekulatius said:

I don't know the answer to that question, but the stock does not necessarily looks all that cheap. They have earnings of ~$3.1, so that's a 18.4 PE. Maybe NEE deserves a premium to the utility sector (which i view as generally unattractive at current interest rates), but then we have the issue with the drop down MLP NEP.

 

Dropdown MLP are nothing but trouble, they work for a while as long as they can show rapid growth, but once they become too large, growth tends to wane. They are also always at the mercy of capital markets for fresh equity and debt. not a great combo if things become a bit more tight in capital markets.

 

My thinking is that NEE as the GP needs to keep NEP alive and most likely they will have to fold this back in the mothership at some point if it's cost of capital becomes excessive. So more dilution, slower growth is on the horizon.

 

This is going to take a while to work out. In the meantime, there are a lot of dividend growth investor apes in this stock, some are still buying the dip and there is tax loss season coming.

 

Of course Brad Thomas is in this one too:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4632662-nextera-energy-one-of-best-times-in-5-years-to-buy-this-dividend-aristocrat

 

I know this is more thinking out loud (and writing it down) than answering your question.

 

I think "dividend growth investor apes" are selling aggressively today. I put a stink bid for NEE@30. Why not.

[bizaro86]

On 9/29/2023 at 4:50 PM, John Hjorth said:

 Thank you all for reading my post about RI.PA as a reply to @Spekulatius exactly as it was meant, and thereby generating some friendly talk and banter here on CoBF! 

 

@dealraker posting about having a good time with good friends on the porch just near by, and with a view to the lake, just south of Lexington, NC. I suppose the autumn colors are in the crowns of the trees  by now.

 

Here, just like everywhere in the Northern hemisphire, we have just passed autumnal equinox by a week, and the clock here is now 22:45. It has been black night for a whole hour now, and I just hate it. 6 - 7 weeks ago we had light in the horizon to the north, generating light nights. Now totally gone. Tomorrow we are bound to leave the best September month ever to the best of my recollection with regard to rain, sun and temperatures. But all that is because of the Gulf Stream.

 

 

@RedLion, congrats on your new Maui acqusition!

 

John - I had to read the caption twice. I was absolutely convinced you had, for reasons unknown, posted a map of Canada's oilsands. Because in size and location what you've posted matches them fairly closely.

[ourkid8]

Added more BN to my already large position. 

[John Hjorth]

6 hours ago, bizaro86 said:

 

John - I had to read the caption twice. I was absolutely convinced you had, for reasons unknown, posted a map of Canada's oilsands. Because in size and location what you've posted matches them fairly closely.

 

@bizaro86,

 

 - That map explains very well the difference in size between Denmark and Canada. I just checked it up : Canada population ~ 38.8 million , Denmark ~ 5.9 million, in meaning factor size 6.6 : 1.

 

Canada is simply in reality so vast, with most of its population living near the US border, and Canada being worlds second largest coutry by area, only surpassed by Russia.

[Gregmal]

On 7/5/2023 at 9:14 AM, Gregmal said:

Yea IWM it’s kind of all the above. I don’t even know if it’s right but saw a PE of 12 on it as well. But it’s more torquey to economic sensitivity and less propped up by quality. Average company has harder time getting financing than a S&P component as well. The flip is it’s still off way more than the other indexes but a lotta time you wanna pay attention to strength.
 

Mainly though where things are setup after H1 I think we could easily see a no big deal 2H where the market loses 5-10% just because 1H got so many people chasing their tails. Last 2 weeks of June IMO were some of the most obvious performance chasing into the quarter end I’ve ever seen. So we could even just give a little bit of that back for no reason and this will do 50% in short order.

 

Most important part of the hedge, and it’s really just that, is the strike though. One thing I hate with options is that when you go out of the money you can’t average down because it’s more and more likely to be worthless when it goes against you. Which sucks because OTM options are really where you hit your home runs. So you have to find the line and straddle it. At $190 we are slightly in the money. If the index moves 10% against me….shit, I’ll be a happy camper on the longer side. But it’ll be still close enough to then swing at it again as an OTM option and probably only cost a few bucks. Vs if I go for say a $170 strike right now and the trade goes against me to $210….have very little room or margin for error needing a decline that big. 
 

Done stuff like this often after big H1s over the years and just generally taking ~10% of the the gains on the year and positioning them so that if we give a lot of it back the hedge will warp into a 20-30% position and liquidity source is just kind of a good prop IMO. So the $190s currently about $9-10. If you get a 20% pullback they’ll 4x. Even a 10% pullback is a double. If the market doesn’t go anywhere  period for the rest of the year I’m still a few bucks in the money and I lose like 4%. 

Closed this out which now makes the higher leverage MGK puts totally on the house and then some. Also funded more Nintendo 

[bathtime]

15 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Closed this out which now makes the higher leverage MGK puts totally on the house and then some. Also funded more Nintendo 

Congratulations on an excellent hedge and trade. 

[dipod]

More MANU and JOE. Also MANU $20 calls

 

[adesigar]

9 minutes ago, dipod said:

More MANU and JOE. Also MANU $20 calls

 

 

Do you think the MANU sale will happen soon and at the rumored 6B asking price?

[no_free_lunch]

Bought some $ARE.TO.   Small 1% position for now.

 

Bought an extra sliver of $C.

Edited October 3, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[dipod]

15 minutes ago, adesigar said:

 

Do you think the MANU sale will happen soon and at the rumored 6B asking price?

I believe a sale will happen at some point in the future. At the current price, it’s selling at a hefty discount to what a less (albeit just by a smidge) well known soccer club sold for (Chelsea at $5.2b) a while back. If the Glazer’s choose to not sell now, they can sell in future years when media contracts become more valuable. At that point, the valuation may become even higher. The margin of safety IMO is pretty good here. MANU has significantly underperformed in recent years since they took over so the pressure will remain from the fans. And MANU fans are pretty intense (not just in the UK but all over the world). Been a MANU fan for probably close to 20 years and it’s one of the most storied franchises in all of sports. I just don’t see how this is not sold for north of $6b when things finally settle out. May require a waiting game but I’m willing to wait things out with the discount that exists now.