Santayana

But they were mostly right 2016-2018 when we did have a rising rate environment, and then 2019-2020 may have been the steepest cutting cycle in history, and I don't think it was very easy to see that was coming. Given how much lower the float was in 2016 vs. now, how much do you really think they could have made by taking on duration when the 10yr was trading at ~2%?

Being positioned to take advantage of the higher rates was completely in management's control, and there was really only one direction rates could move.

It comes up every year, but I'm always a little surprised at the > 10% number that seem to always vote against Prem.

He's forecasting $106 for 2024 and $92 for 2025.

Thanks for all the updates Parsad!

As an anecdote, I just renewed the lease for my retail storefront, and the terms of the lease has annual increases that will increase the rent by 30% over the next 5 years. Minimum wage where I am is up 35% since the beginning of 2020. Shipping and transportation continues to climb. Yeah, inflation is going to be sticky.

That is just wild! We should all start emailing him crazy conspiracy theories about what Prem is doing. I just heard that they're going to announce that they are short BTC at the annual meeting.

I've wondered if the modest selloff in Fairfax wasn't due to concern about their losses on this.

I'm sure at least some of it will be for what they're putting together for IDBI.

I'm guessing next week.

I wonder to what degree liquidity plays factor in the index inclusion process. Would a higher average daily volume make them more likely to be included? Has Prem ever directly addressed the question of whether they'd ever do a split?

For a treasury ETF that you want to act like a cash equivalent, you pretty much have to stick with the ultra short durations. I park cash in SGOV which is almost completely agnostic to rate changes other than the monthly distribution.

This is the secret sauce. The market is starting to recognize the earnings power that's there, but doesn't understand the compounding that can happen from here.

It's a real shame to see the Allied acquisition ruining the combined ratio like that. Excited to hear what Carson Block has to say about that on the call tomorrow.

Making lots of popcorn for this call...