Spekulatius Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 CVS and MSG Picked up some MSG too this AM at~$271. I am not sure what caused the sudden downdraft , but noticed that MSGN is doing even worse, is this team related? The Brooklyn Nets just signed a few super stars that will likely draw crowds there. Could possibly have something to do with that. I imagine, Durant and Irving will draw quite the crown in NY. It's been awhile since there was a true NBA superstar in the city. That being said, I'm long MSG. The Knicks are too iconic and so is the stadium. MSG is to America what the Colosseum was to Rome. https://gothamist.com/2019/07/01/kevin_durant_kyrie_irving_headed_to.php Thx, yes this makes sense ( although it economically probably not) . I don’t have a clue about baseball , but I did see the news about Durant, but didn’t connect the investment correlated dots. Anyways, with these sport team related stock, I noticed that a lot of people gamble on these stocks and give way more weighing to recent team results than makes sense economically ( I watch Borussia Dortmund as a stock and as Team). I guess it’s just a form of sports betting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 Bought SPTL and added to TSLA short Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 CVS and MSG Picked up some MSG too this AM at~$271. I am not sure what caused the sudden downdraft , but noticed that MSGN is doing even worse, is this team related? I added MSGN in two slugs this am at 19.5 and 19.2, adding to my existing position. Knicks whiff on free agents is why they’re down. Dolan looks like an even bigger idiots after his February boasting. Fans are pissed. Hopefully this puts Jim over the edge and he sells the Knicks. Why MSG over MSGN or vice versa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 CVS and MSG Picked up some MSG too this AM at~$271. I am not sure what caused the sudden downdraft , but noticed that MSGN is doing even worse, is this team related? I added MSGN in two slugs this am at 19.5 and 19.2, adding to my existing position. Knicks whiff on free agents is why they’re down. Dolan looks like an even bigger idiots after his February boasting. Fans are pissed. Hopefully this puts Jim over the edge and he sells the Knicks. Why MSG over MSGN or vice versa? I own both. MSG is a top 5 position for me. With over $1B net cash you are basically paying for the Knicks here, and getting the Rangers, Rockettes/Radio City Music Hall, The Garden, and the Entertainment biz for free. The lower it goes the easier it becomes to plow money in. Under the $6B market cap number, there really isn't a better risk adjusted security out there. These are one of a kind assets that always do well over time. Pick any decades and then scale out. The returns on sports teams are insane. Even the mediocre ones. Here you own the best in both sports. MSGN is pretty simple. Very simple and straight forward contract pricing with easy to project cash flows. They have, and continue to pay down debt, and buyback stock. You have about a $2.3B EV which is quite reasonable considering this is the only public RSN and easily the best one out there. The Knicks sucking also puts a bottom on the attractiveness of both, as it really can only get better from here. My rule of thumb with MSGN is its worth about $30 in a sale. At $25 its fairly valued as a public company, but under $22 it's an easy piece of paper to start building a position in. Under $20 its a steal. MSG is a buy and hold forever. MSGN you'll have to trade to get your returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 Back in ALSK. Made some decent money on it before but sold when the CEO instituted a poison pill. Now he's booted and the stock hasn't really reacted. It's cheap on a standalone basis but I'd expect a sale before the end of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 MSGN is pretty simple. Very simple and straight forward contract pricing with easy to project cash flows. They have, and continue to pay down debt, and buyback stock. You have about a $2.3B EV which is quite reasonable considering this is the only public RSN and easily the best one out there. The Knicks sucking also puts a bottom on the attractiveness of both, as it really can only get better from here. My rule of thumb with MSGN is its worth about $30 in a sale. At $25 its fairly valued as a public company, but under $22 it's an easy piece of paper to start building a position in. Under $20 its a steal. MSGN is the entity the bears the most direct risk from continued sub declines, correct? Specifically, distributors pay MSGN a fee per subscriber, while MSGN pays MSG a fixed (and escalating) fee for the Knicks/Rangers media rights. On the other hand, MSGN seems to be the most immediate beneficiary of increasingly legalized sports betting. With respect to MSG, how do you feel about the Spheres? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hillfronter83 Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 CVS and MSG Picked up some MSG too this AM at~$271. I am not sure what caused the sudden downdraft , but noticed that MSGN is doing even worse, is this team related? I added MSGN in two slugs this am at 19.5 and 19.2, adding to my existing position. Knicks whiff on free agents is why they’re down. Dolan looks like an even bigger idiots after his February boasting. Fans are pissed. Hopefully this puts Jim over the edge and he sells the Knicks. Why MSG over MSGN or vice versa? I own both. MSG is a top 5 position for me. With over $1B net cash you are basically paying for the Knicks here, and getting the Rangers, Rockettes/Radio City Music Hall, The Garden, and the Entertainment biz for free. The lower it goes the easier it becomes to plow money in. Under the $6B market cap number, there really isn't a better risk adjusted security out there. These are one of a kind assets that always do well over time. Pick any decades and then scale out. The returns on sports teams are insane. Even the mediocre ones. Here you own the best in both sports. MSGN is pretty simple. Very simple and straight forward contract pricing with easy to project cash flows. They have, and continue to pay down debt, and buyback stock. You have about a $2.3B EV which is quite reasonable considering this is the only public RSN and easily the best one out there. The Knicks sucking also puts a bottom on the attractiveness of both, as it really can only get better from here. My rule of thumb with MSGN is its worth about $30 in a sale. At $25 its fairly valued as a public company, but under $22 it's an easy piece of paper to start building a position in. Under $20 its a steal. MSG is a buy and hold forever. MSGN you'll have to trade to get your returns. I get that Knicks is a more famous club and has much better fan base in NY area regardless of its dismal performance on court. But why do you think Knicks is worth more than $5b while Nets was sold for $2.3b last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 MSGN is pretty simple. Very simple and straight forward contract pricing with easy to project cash flows. They have, and continue to pay down debt, and buyback stock. You have about a $2.3B EV which is quite reasonable considering this is the only public RSN and easily the best one out there. The Knicks sucking also puts a bottom on the attractiveness of both, as it really can only get better from here. My rule of thumb with MSGN is its worth about $30 in a sale. At $25 its fairly valued as a public company, but under $22 it's an easy piece of paper to start building a position in. Under $20 its a steal. MSGN is the entity the bears the most direct risk from continued sub declines, correct? Specifically, distributors pay MSGN a fee per subscriber, while MSGN pays MSG a fixed (and escalating) fee for the Knicks/Rangers media rights. On the other hand, MSGN seems to be the most immediate beneficiary of increasingly legalized sports betting. With respect to MSG, how do you feel about the Spheres? Yes, that is accurate. My take, and what's kind of been the case for the past couple years, is the pros and cons kind of negate themselves and while I expect the declines to continue, they should be moderate. Whereas if you get any number of things, such as the gambling, or a deep playoff run, stand alone streaming options, or say, the Knicks landing a decent player, you have some nice upside. If all else remains equal, at a single digit multiple, you'll make some money if nothing changes. I also think it is a when, not if scenario in which we see Dolan sell this. He doesn't want the cable company and my 2c is that the Disney/Fox RSN transaction needed to occur first. That is clearing up soon, at which point I think Jimmy pulls the trigger here. The spheres I don't care for. I like adding real estate/venues. I like the JV structure. I dont like the amount of capital it will require. That said, I am glad they are spinning that off. I would be supremely pissed if they levered up the sports teams to build new venues with unproven economics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 CVS and MSG Picked up some MSG too this AM at~$271. I am not sure what caused the sudden downdraft , but noticed that MSGN is doing even worse, is this team related? I added MSGN in two slugs this am at 19.5 and 19.2, adding to my existing position. Knicks whiff on free agents is why they’re down. Dolan looks like an even bigger idiots after his February boasting. Fans are pissed. Hopefully this puts Jim over the edge and he sells the Knicks. Why MSG over MSGN or vice versa? I own both. MSG is a top 5 position for me. With over $1B net cash you are basically paying for the Knicks here, and getting the Rangers, Rockettes/Radio City Music Hall, The Garden, and the Entertainment biz for free. The lower it goes the easier it becomes to plow money in. Under the $6B market cap number, there really isn't a better risk adjusted security out there. These are one of a kind assets that always do well over time. Pick any decades and then scale out. The returns on sports teams are insane. Even the mediocre ones. Here you own the best in both sports. MSGN is pretty simple. Very simple and straight forward contract pricing with easy to project cash flows. They have, and continue to pay down debt, and buyback stock. You have about a $2.3B EV which is quite reasonable considering this is the only public RSN and easily the best one out there. The Knicks sucking also puts a bottom on the attractiveness of both, as it really can only get better from here. My rule of thumb with MSGN is its worth about $30 in a sale. At $25 its fairly valued as a public company, but under $22 it's an easy piece of paper to start building a position in. Under $20 its a steal. MSG is a buy and hold forever. MSGN you'll have to trade to get your returns. I get that Knicks is a more famous club and has much better fan base in NY area regardless of its dismal performance on court. But why do you think Knicks is worth more than $5b while Nets was sold for $2.3b last year? I've lived in the NY/NJ area my whole life. I am a Devils fan, and used to root for the Nets when they played in NJ. I can only tell you that the difference between the Giants and the Jets, the Yankees and the Mets, Rangers and Islanders/Devils, and Knicks vs Nets, is very substantial. Its not even close. Its like the Lakers and Clippers except the Nets are even less relevant(although maybe now a bit more so) and play in a poorly constructed, but newly built arena under a long term lease. One is iconic, playing in the worlds most famous arena, the other is the red headed step child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclecticvalue Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 hillfrontier83 - There was rumor of an offer of $5 billion for the Knicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 Bought SPTL and added to TSLA short Thanks Lance got a few friends took delivery of model 3 recently. they said tesla is doing about 100 cars a day in vancouver, bc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Bought SPTL and added to TSLA short Thanks Lance got a few friends took delivery of model 3 recently. they said tesla is doing about 100 cars a day in vancouver, bc! My neighbor got a model 3 a couple of months ago.--really nice car. I offered to trade him my 335i for it but he declined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 I managed to score some LAACZ units today for a good price. It happens from time to time. Added 3 more units to my stash right at the open for $2200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 $10 Sept calls on OSTK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Bought SPTL and added to TSLA short Thanks Lance got a few friends took delivery of model 3 recently. they said tesla is doing about 100 cars a day in vancouver, bc! My neighbor got a model 3 a couple of months ago.--really nice car. I offered to trade him my 335i for it but he declined. i hate to do this but driving a model 3 now fees like owning an iphone a few years ago when people were still on blackberry and motorola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 It kind of does, and they aren't even competing in the actual growing/profitable segment of NA autos yet (SUVs and Trucks). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 3, 2019 Share Posted July 3, 2019 Sold more Fairfax as my opinion is rates go lower in the mid-term. Purchased more Eurobank and Exor with the proceeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Started BUR.L Also added AVM last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 PACB - betting on a merger conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 Started small position in BUR.L. Pretty expensive commission with a Canadian big bank broker (>$100, +forex). Damn, will switch to IB eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 I tried with BRFRF (OTC version of BUR.L), I set my price about 1% over the london price but still couldn't get a fill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 IPOA. A frivolous YOLO trade obviously, where the thesis basically amounts to "front run the dumb money." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 I tried with BRFRF (OTC version of BUR.L), I set my price about 1% over the london price but still couldn't get a fill. If not already so, you may want to have your order open during the times when both the US and London markets are open... only 2 hours of window in the morning. Also, per my broker, the UK govt charges two levies, 0.1% and 0.5%, on all stock transactions. So there's not much arbitrage profit for the ADR MM if you only offer a 1% premium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahab Posted July 9, 2019 Share Posted July 9, 2019 SHDL beat me to it. I bought some warrants of IPOA today. Mostly, because I see this as a very successful IPO due to the public's excitement about space travel/exploration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted July 10, 2019 Share Posted July 10, 2019 Thanks gokou. I did not know about these levies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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