What are you buying today?

[ourkid8]

10 hours ago, RedLion said:

Big add to BAM, first add in a couple years on this position, but ended up increasing my total position size by ~30%. I ended up buying at $40.84. 

I also added to BAM today as well. There is a point I will be forced to double my position and with the price dropping that point is getting closer day by day. I wish ATCO would trade near its offer price so I can swap out of atco into BAM!!! 

Edited September 30, 2022 by ourkid8

[Spekulatius]

Bought a starter in ADDYY (Adidas) today. I also added to PAH.DE / POAHY.

[tooskinneejs]

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company.  It's at a price not seen since 2013.

 

VF Corp is also looking cheap.

[Castanza]

26 minutes ago, tooskinneejs said:

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company.  It's at a price not seen since 2013.

 

VF Corp is also looking cheap.

What's the thesis on this? Balance sheet doesn't look good, Sales down 60% Cashflow going negative? Is the divy sustainable? Seems like it could drop a lot more. 

[DooDiligence]

58 minutes ago, Castanza said:

What's the thesis on this? Balance sheet doesn't look good, Sales down 60% Cashflow going negative? Is the divy sustainable? Seems like it could drop a lot more. 

 

I'm a lawn freak and used to use Scotts products but switched to WalMart's Expert Gardener brand quite a few years ago.

 

I battled weeds for a long time using Scotts Bonus S Southern Weed and Feed with virtually no effect on weeds, and yes I do follow the directions on the bag. Now I use the Expert Gardener fertilizer product(s) + 4 to 6 week applications of Spectracide Weed Stop for lawns with a hose end sprayer and the results are significantly better than Scotts.

 

The war on weeds is never ending and you gotta use the right weapons.

My lawn is green and lush at half the price.

 

---

 

edit: that reminds me, I'm buying winterizer today.

Edited September 30, 2022 by DooDiligence

[Castanza]

5 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

 

I'm a lawn freak and used to use Scotts products but switched to WalMart's Expert Gardener brand quite a few years ago.

 

I battled weeds for a long time using Scotts Bonus S Southern Weed and Feed with virtually no effect on weeds, and yes I do follow the directions on the bag. Now I use the Expert Gardener fertilizer product(s) + 4 to 6 week applications of Spectracide Weed Stop for lawns with a hose end sprayer and the results are significantly better than Scotts.

 

The war on weeds is never ending and you gotta use the right weapons.

My lawn is green and lush at half the price.

 

---

 

edit: that reminds me, I'm buying winterizer today.

From what I’ve seen with lawncare is the cottage industry really taking off. If you look on Forums, Reddit, YouTube etc. There is a big moving away from the big brands and more into specialized products/stuff promoted by individuals. 
 

Probably doesn’t capture the whole market though and tbh I’m not even sure the breakdown for SMG between consummer/commercial. I didn’t get past the balance sheet and outlook 

[Spekulatius]

Speaking of the war on weeds and specialized stuff, if you have problems with crabgrass in your lawn, this stuff from BASF (DriveXLR8) is the chemical warfare bomb:

https://www.amazon.com/BASF-AMDRIVEXLR-Drive-XLR8-Killer/dp/B08DJ8XTBR/ref=asc_df_B08DJ8XTBR/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=507730646855&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=9985564175916134754&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9001910&hvtargid=pla-1253150176265&psc=1

 

[DooDiligence]

7 minutes ago, Castanza said:

From what I’ve seen with lawncare is the cottage industry really taking off. If you look on Forums, Reddit, YouTube etc. There is a big moving away from the big brands and more into specialized products/stuff promoted by individuals. 
 

Probably doesn’t capture the whole market though and tbh I’m not even sure the breakdown for SMG between consummer/commercial. I didn’t get past the balance sheet and outlook 

 

Same, re: the balance sheet and personal experience with their products.

[DooDiligence]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Speaking of the war on weeds and specialized stuff, if you have problems with crabgrass in your lawn, this stuff from BASF (DriveXLR8) is the chemical warfare bomb:

https://www.amazon.com/BASF-AMDRIVEXLR-Drive-XLR8-Killer/dp/B08DJ8XTBR/ref=asc_df_B08DJ8XTBR/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=507730646855&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=9985564175916134754&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9001910&hvtargid=pla-1253150176265&psc=1

 

 

dimethylamine salt does the job for sure

[CorpRaider]

I'm a DCA buyer of SMG here (though I have been).  Dividend could get cut and could go lower.

 

I must, however, marshal my resources for the coming BRK below book opportunity, which I do hereby swear to ton.

Edited September 30, 2022 by CorpRaider

[Spooky]

My BAM dividend was automatically reinvested for 1 more share... awww yaaaa

[Spekulatius]

Bought a starter on LEVI again. Maybe not the cheapest consumer stock, but one of the most durable brands. I also like management. They have done an excellent job to during the epidemic etc.

[KPO]

POAHY & BA at the close

[no_free_lunch]

Bought some Exor.  

[ERICOPOLY]

7 hours ago, DooDiligence said:

 

dimethylamine salt does the job for sure

 

You just let crabgrass take over and cut it short and from a distance nobody can tell.

[Viking]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Bought a starter on LEVI again. Maybe not the cheapest consumer stock, but one of the most durable brands. I also like management. They have done an excellent job to during the epidemic etc.

Followed you back into LEVI. Only jeans i have ever bought (yes, i know dumb reason). Also bought a little Nike (just bought a pair of runners). Also bought GOOG today… some days my hours watching Youtube is starting to rival my time watching regular TV (if i exclude sports). This weekend i will be spending time reviewing my buy list… JPM just hit a new 52 week low and BAC is within a whisker of $30 - both are trading close to where they were 4.5 years ago. 

[Spekulatius]

@Viking I take that you like $LEVI as a vindication. Anyways it’s a small position for me and I traded it twice before with success. I followed the company since they IPO‘d. I know them ,one enough and remember when they went private decades ago.

 

Anyways, I like what I heard so far. Demand collapsed during the epidemic as everyone was Zooming along in their underwear apparently, but hey never lost much monos, emphasized DTC and stayed cash flow positive. The stock hung out around $12 and a bit blow and I bought some shares and sold them at $17 in one of these bounces after the vaccine. Too early as it turned out.

 

So, ingot interested again at $16 when the stock dropped despite much better fundamentals and even though their Q2 2022 result looked solid. They showed some rise in inventory, but nothing extremely out of line if you consider revenue growth. Now, I think they might get hit too by the consumer recession, but I can’t see this being as bad than the epidemic by a long shot. The stock is now at $14.5, go figure.

 

Net debt is almost zero and what shows up is just  LT lease liabilities, so balance sheet is not is not issue. I guess there are many other stocks like this, but LEVI is one I know and it‘s an easy business to understand.

 

FWIW, I agree on BAC and JPM, but my bank of choice amongst the large caps is USB. I also own a bit of CASH and COF.

Edited October 1, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Dinar]

@Vikingand @Spekulatius.  How fast above inflation do you think Levi can grow on the top line?  Thank you.

[Spekulatius]

@Dinar. LEVI is targeting 6-8% growth for the next few years. I am not sure how they think about adjusting for inflation. The latest IR presentation gives you a good idea how they think about their business evolving:

https://s23.q4cdn.com/172692177/files/doc_presentations/2022/08/00709_08-22_LSCo_Abbreviated-investor-day-deck_ppt.pdf

[Dalal.Holdings]

22 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Bought a starter on LEVI again. Maybe not the cheapest consumer stock, but one of the most durable brands. I also like management. They have done an excellent job to during the epidemic etc.

 

I like the returns on capital, I don't like SBC being ~10% of FCF and repurchasing of shares "to offset dilution".

[lnofeisone]

bought a full position of ATUS and SAVE.

[DooDiligence]

19 hours ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

You just let crabgrass take over and cut it short and from a distance nobody can tell.

 

I tried growing crabgrass but the centipede keeps choking it out 

[CassiusKing1]

Going fishing for a trade and buying SOFI <$5.

[tooskinneejs]

On 9/30/2022 at 11:17 AM, Castanza said:

What's the thesis on this? Balance sheet doesn't look good, Sales down 60% Cashflow going negative? Is the divy sustainable? Seems like it could drop a lot more. 

The company has earned 70% of its market capitalization in the last five years.

 

Sales were down 26% quarter over quarter due primarily to a decline in sales in their Hawthorne segment (cannabis) due to oversupply.  We'll have to wait and see if that is a temporary factor or not.  The consumer segment, which is by far the largest, saw sales decline 13% in the quarter.  Many businesses saw spikes in sales during the pandemic as people focused on home.  This could be just a cooling off.  I still think people will take care of their yards.

 

As to the balance sheet.  They have a strong current ratio of about 2.5.  Debt to equity is high, but that is because the company has paid dividends of $1.3 billion and retired shares (net of issuances) of $892 million over the last 10 years (a total of $2.2 billion, which approximates today's market cap).

[Kupotea]

Bought a large amount of TLT and some energy stocks TECK.B, BNE, MEG.