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Posted

Just wrote some more BRK.B Puts, $280 strike, 27th Aug and 3rd Sep expiries.

Still have a bit more unexposed cash, so might take another bite today.

Posted
On 8/7/2021 at 3:00 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

+1

 

Hadn't considered to check the NAV, but ultimately this should act as a super leveraged exposure to rising 20-year rates which was my intention. 

if the 10 year treasury were to hit 2% by year end, what kind of ballpark return would pfix earn? thanks.

Posted
4 hours ago, wescobrk said:

if the 10 year treasury were to hit 2% by year end, what kind of ballpark return would pfix earn? thanks.

 

Hard to say exactly - depends on volatility and etc since these are options. Also, the benchmark rate is the 20-year and not the 10-year. 

 

But my best guess is that it'd probably be in the ballpark of ~40-50% returns for a similar move in the 20-year treasury with no additional curve steepening between the 10- and 20-year rates. 

Posted (edited)
On 8/17/2021 at 1:09 PM, fareastwarriors said:

Picked up more shares of MSGE at $62.50.

Can't wait for 50s...

 

It should have nothing to hold it back now with the September booster shots for everyone.  The Israeli data on the effectiveness of a 3rd booster shot against Delta shows this to be so.

 

 

Edited by ERICOPOLY
Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

Picked up some PM at 100.30.

 

I'm a yield pig!

You would be buying BTI if you were a yield pig (I did buy a little).

 

Added to MSP (A managed software provider (as the ticker indicates). I liked the their past quarterly earnings and think they could grow for a long time. High teens growth is too low for the compounder brothers in software, but is fine with me.

Edited by Spekulatius
Posted
3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

You would be buying BTI if you were a yield pig (I did buy a little).

 

Added to MSP (A managed software provider (as the ticker indicates). I liked the their past quarterly earnings and think they could grow for a long time. High teens growth is too low for the compounder brothers in software, but is fine with me.

 

I do own some BTI but haven't added lately.   Between all my REITs and now some tobacco stocks, I'm growing into a piggy. 

 

 

Posted (edited)
On 8/15/2021 at 10:35 PM, irnovo said:

For GOCO, on Q2 earnings call, they revised EBITDA for 2021 (from ~350m to ~300) due to increased costs for hiring and retaining sale agents in 2021. EHTH didn't change guidance in Q2 call. SLQT is due to announce earnings on 25th Aug. The companies may seem spammy but it is in their best interest to find the most suitable Medicare Advantage plan for the seniors so that the churn is low. Therefore they really help seniors. I'd highly suggest most recent write up on VIC as well as the discussion in comments. With so many MA plans available (~28 on avrg), it can really get difficult for the seniors to choose the most appropriate plans. I don't see any reason why these platforms would fail to post high rev growth in coming years. They all have ~2-3 LTV/CAC, meaning that every additional approved member adds to profitability. 

@irnovo$SLQT coughing up blood too. Earnings missed by a huge amount, mostly due to rapidly rising costs and worse economics. What a disaster this sector is and quite frankly, I don't fully understand, why they are doing so much worse than last year.

image.png.24285fc5bb18d396a8c1a9ebc524e2f9.png

No position.

Edited by Spekulatius
Posted
23 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

@irnovo$SLQT coughing up blood too. Earnings missed by a huge amount, mostly due to rapidly rising costs and worse economics. What a disaster this sector is and quite frankly, I don't fully understand, why they are doing so much worse than last year.

image.png.24285fc5bb18d396a8c1a9ebc524e2f9.png

No position.

I added to my starter position at $7.95. All 3 have mentioned pretty much the same reason: higher cost of hiring and retaining the agents this year due to labor shortage, which lead to ~25% lower guidance. 

Posted

9/3 PTON puts. Somewhat surprised this was barely down following a disastrous report. Think the news flow over the weekend sinks in and the more intelligent investors outweigh the dumbasses next week. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

9/3 PTON puts. Somewhat surprised this was barely down following a disastrous report. Think the news flow over the weekend sinks in and the more intelligent investors outweigh the dumbasses next week. 

i think strong market is propping up PTON today. I was expecting/hoping for a bigger drop. 

Posted (edited)

^thats kind of the angle I'm trading here. I dont think anyone buying a stock like PTON really knows what theyre doing anymore than the folks buying GME and AMC type stuff, but having the ER Thursday into the Friday of Jackson Hole and market rallying perhaps props things up, along with the absolutely bizarre loyalty today from all the bullish analysts.... my hunch is the weekend pause and any sort of possible pullback next week maybe a catalyst for the bottom to come out. You can buy $105s for 2.70 and $100s for $1 and if it revisits some of the after hour prints from yesterday you make several times your money.  

Edited by Gregmal

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