Where are we at in this downturn?

[Blake Hampton]

It's simple: when Trump tells people to buy, I don't.

 

Here's a cool picture from The Economist: "Puddles so far avoided."

 

 

Edited April 11, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

It's simple: when Trump tells people to buy, I don't.

 

Here's a cool picture from The Economist: "Puddles so far avoided."

 

 

I think the smart thing is to buy when he says so and sell a little later for a quick flip and hopefully a nice gain.

 

The stock market has become a Trump and Tariff Meme market basically.

Edited April 11, 2025 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

Here is a post from Charlie [ @dealraker ] in another topic, but of today :

 

 

Quote

A little more target for our very special gang to assault:

 

Howard Marks: Just a couple of months ago, the U.S. economy was performing well, the outlook was positive, the stock market was at an all-time high, and there was much talk about American exceptionalism. Now, if Trump’s tariffs are put into effect, the U.S. economy is likely to experience a recession sooner than otherwise would have been the case, higher inflation, and extensive dislocation. Even if the tariffs are reversed entirely, it’s unlikely the other nations will dismiss this incident and conclude that they have nothing to worry about in terms of relations with the U.S.

 

If market's perspecective forward looking is basically close to non-existent, how can anyone, - based on reason and rationality - How can anyone rightly claim that this is the right time to buy?

[LC]

11 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

If market's perspecective forward looking is basically close to non-existent, how can anyone, - based on reason and rationality - How can anyone rightly claim that this is the right time to buy?

 

Well I think of it this way: if today is not the right time to buy - is it the right time to sell?

[Spooky]

The right time to buy is when you can buy a business for less than intrinsic value (with a margin of safety). The rest is noise.

[cubsfan]

49 minutes ago, Spooky said:

The right time to buy is when you can buy a business for less than intrinsic value (with a margin of safety). The rest is noise.

 

Wow - that makes sooooo much sense. Good for you.

[Spooky]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Wow - that makes sooooo much sense. Good for you.

Can't tell if you are being sarcastic

[cubsfan]

56 minutes ago, Spooky said:

Can't tell if you are being sarcastic

 

Not in the least. Ya nailed it.

[Jaygo]

Ok so we have had our bounce. What's next?

 

Barring some crazy outburst from the administration we will likely muddle along up and down relatively evenly ( maybe down a bit more ) until the earnings season starts for the manufacturing sector.

 

Then I think we will start to grind lower. Let's remember the numbers will have a bump in them due to frontloading of ordering to beat tariffs. Everyone in business did this. 

The effect will be similar to elevated inventories causing a slowdown. So I expect decent numbers for the most recent Q ( maybe some short lived bounces ) but bad or uncertain forward guidance. 

 

That uncertainty will be the cause of the grinding lower. There are possible things that could change this for better or worse, but I believe a lot of damage is done already and some economic pain is now certain. My call as it stands today with the info I see from the world around me is the broad market about 10% lower than today by summer. 

 

Obviously some will do better and worse than the market so that is certainly not a blanket call for individual companies. I am certainly underweight US brands who sell globally. (Starbucks, Nike ect)  America need to realize how badly the world is hating on them right now so pure American brands will likely suffer. 

 

1. First case in point is Polaris industries. If you think any Canadian any time soon will buy a Polaris sled you can think again. Canada is Polaris's 2nd biggest market and its basically closed until we forget about the elbows up BS ( 3 years? ) 

 

2. Second case. Expecting some tariff BS I front loaded 80K order from Sherwin Williams. This order was placed in Q1 2025. I otherwise would have trickled this order in throughout the year. I am not alone, I am a microcosm of business. Expect good Q1 and slow Q2

 

3. Third case. A long stand customer in the tint manufacturing business who makes tints that go into a wide range of products mentioned that they just had their worst back half of a year since 2008. Tint is a product that goes into every item that has unnatural colours. From Food to cars, clothing and packaging. 

 

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

"Buy the Dip" is dead

 

Say hello to "Sell the Rip"

[Dinar]

So, LVMH missed significantly.  On the other hand, CP volumes seem to be running at 5-10% ahead of last year for the first 14 weeks of the year.  

[Jaygo]

39 minutes ago, Dinar said:

So, LVMH missed significantly.  On the other hand, CP volumes seem to be running at 5-10% ahead of last year for the first 14 weeks of the year.  

That's really interesting. Any chance you could post the CP volumes and is it broken down by sector. 

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, Jaygo said:

That's really interesting. Any chance you could post the CP volumes and is it broken down by sector. 

https://investor.cpkcr.com/key-metrics/default.aspx  Here is the link, there is downloadable data, and it is broken down by sector.

Edited April 14, 2025 by Dinar

[Jaygo]

35 minutes ago, Dinar said:

https://investor.cpkcr.com/key-metrics/default.aspx  Here is the link, there is downloadable data, and it is broken down by sector.

Thank you Dinar.

 

I will keep this on my things to look at periodically. 

[mattee2264]

I think the near term outlook for markets is pretty good. There seems to be a Trump put and we are back to the idea that tariffs are just a negotiating tool and won't stick. 

 

Waller of the Fed is already talking about how tariff inflation will be transitory and he expects rate cuts in the back half of the year. Markets will love that. 

 

But I think there is a false sense of security. Trump hasn't abandoned tariffs. The 10%/20% universal rates look more like a floor than a ceiling and even those rates are enough to do quite a bit of damage to the global economy. Then there is all the uncertainty with all the pauses and exceptions and Trump and his advisors contradicting each other and there hasn't been a hard policy pivot. But one thing is certain. If there is going to be a recession or a severe slowdown it will catch markets by surprise. 

 

 

[Castanza]

lol ffs back on the transitory inflation again….i can’t make heads or tails of this shit. Might go 50% Fairfax 20% Berkshires and 10% Joe, 20% SCHD…close my account for 5 years and see when’re we are then….

[gfp]

15 minutes ago, Castanza said:

lol ffs back on the transitory inflation again…

 

To be fair, the inflation was transitory last time and went right back to 2% after the COVID disruption.  wabuffo does a great CPI chart that substitutes zillow's real time index for the extremely lagged and flawed "owners equivalent rent" and it captures the inflation journey to a T -

 

[Intelligent_Investor]

The market has an ultra short term view. To most in the market 2 years is forever lol. "Transitory" for the market means 2 months.

[John Hjorth]

On 4/7/2025 at 9:19 AM, Luke said:

Brutal 4D Chess Day for my Portfolio.

 

Are you still running your portfolio, partly based on margin, @Luke ?

[Luke]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

Are you still running your portfolio, partly based on margin, @Luke ?

I reduced it significantly and have lots of room, no worries right now. Made no losses due to it.

[John Hjorth]

7 minutes ago, Luke said:

I reduced it significantly and have lots of room, no worries right now. Made no losses due to it.

 

Thank you, and good for you, Luke  @Luke.

[Metta]

Is this too linear but directionally correct?

Apollo presentation has quite numbers of chart showing the current economic situation.

https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/042625-ConsumerandFirms_v2.pdf

Edited April 29, 2025 by Metta

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 4/14/2025 at 4:00 PM, mattee2264 said:

I think the near term outlook for markets is pretty good. There seems to be a Trump put and we are back to the idea that tariffs are just a negotiating tool and won't stick. 

 

There is no such thing as a 'Trump' put. He has made that clear. 

 

On 4/14/2025 at 4:00 PM, mattee2264 said:

 

Waller of the Fed is already talking about how tariff inflation will be transitory and he expects rate cuts in the back half of the year. Markets will love that. 

 

There are two types of rate cuts - those that occur out of recessions (markets love) and those that occur heading into recessions (which scares the shit out of markets). 

 

Which are these going to be?

 

I'll take a stab - Q1 GDP is quite a bit negative, even after adjusting for gold inflows, and was largely data from before the tariffs shock. Are we really expecting Q2 to be better? Are there any data that are directionally moving in the risk-on path that would offset a leading indicators still being negative, the yield curve still being inverted (and close to uninverting), and GDP being negative? 

 

On 4/14/2025 at 4:00 PM, mattee2264 said:

 

But I think there is a false sense of security. Trump hasn't abandoned tariffs. The 10%/20% universal rates look more like a floor than a ceiling and even those rates are enough to do quite a bit of damage to the global economy. Then there is all the uncertainty with all the pauses and exceptions and Trump and his advisors contradicting each other and there hasn't been a hard policy pivot. But one thing is certain. If there is going to be a recession or a severe slowdown it will catch markets by surprise. 

 

+1

 

Markets are not yet pricing in the possibility of a recession. Just uncertainty. Once certainty comes along, there will be more hell to pay. 

 

20 minutes ago, Metta said:

Is this too linear but directionally correct?

Apollo presentation has quite numbers of chart showing the current economic situation.

https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/042625-ConsumerandFirms_v2.pdf

 

We've already seen containership volumes crater at US ports. I'm guessing that it might even be more accelerated than this given there was already signs of weakness pre-Trump and Trump just went and threw all caution to the wind. 

[formthirteen]

2 hours ago, Metta said:

Apollo presentation has quite numbers of chart showing the current economic situation.

 

 

Chart crime, or am I supposed to see chart gremlins in this chart?

[formthirteen]